USD exchange rate forecast Analysis of the US dollar exchange rate for three months according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Risk factors for the ruble

Nowadays, the dollar is one of the main world currencies. Entrepreneurs work with it, and it is where ordinary citizens try to make savings. Naturally, the exchange rate of this currency worries many people. And today it is not at all difficult to quickly track it. If you are planning to sell or buy a dollar in Moscow in the near future, you can find it on our portal. Data on the world's major currencies is available to you around the clock.

How to find out the dollar exchange rate in Moscow banks?

Finding out the dollar exchange rate in Moscow exchange offices today is not at all difficult. To do this you need:

1. Enter the date that interests you in the search. You can select data for today, tomorrow or yesterday.
2. Wait until the program displays the dollar exchange rate for you today in, as well as in exchange offices.
3. Choose the one that is most beneficial for you from the results obtained.

For what purposes can exchange rate data be used?

The given data on the dollar exchange rate in Moscow banks is best used for preliminary calculations. It will allow you to determine the best bank for such transactions, as well as estimate how much rubles you will need to carry out the exchange. Before the operation, it is recommended to contact the exchanger or bank directly to clarify what cash reserves of currencies they have, and whether the exchange rate in this organization has changed in the last hours.

The dollar exchange rate has attracted especially much attention in recent years. Not only the Central Bank, players on the exchanges, but also ordinary citizens pay attention to it. It is not always easy to follow fluctuations: the official one is different from the one set by banks. Therefore, we offer you to use our service. With its help you will learn:

• current rate,
• changes according to schedule,
• features of sale and purchase,
• profitable offers from banks in real time.

How is the dollar exchange rate formed?

The dollar exchange rate today depends on many circumstances. The main factors include: the activity of the Central Bank of Russia, economic and political news, tax periods, the activity of commercial banks and demand from the population. Managing performance is not the job of central financial institutions, but any change in the amount of money in circulation can lead to changes in the foreign exchange market.

Among the factors there are significant news in the economic sphere:

• Macroeconomic reports raise the possibility of policy tightening. This leads to an increase in the attractiveness of investments and the influx of foreign currency into the country.
• As indicators worsen, the situation changes in the opposite direction.

To some extent, the dollar also depends on the amount of gold held by the US Federal Reserve. The more of it there is in the state, the more confidently the monetary unit holds on the banking exchanges. But despite this, the behavior of the currency is so unpredictable that even experienced financiers cannot always confidently predict how the dollar will behave or with 100% certainty.

Therefore, we suggest that you find out the dollar exchange rate for tomorrow or the forecast for a date set by you. To forecast the dollar exchange rate you can study:

• archive,
• fluctuation graph.

Most of the fluctuations occur due to changes in the price of oil. The global volume of production and its consumption have an impact.

Why know the dollar exchange rate?

Obtaining information about the dollar exchange rate online allows entrepreneurs, government organizations and ordinary people to track events taking place in the global financial market. Now many people seek to make deposits in foreign currency, considering this option the most profitable and stable.

In recent years, there has been an increase in the desire of Russian citizens to vacation abroad. Regardless of the country, many first exchange rubles for dollars, and then for the desired currency. This allows you not only to save money, but also to win.

A convenient service has been developed on our website to carry out any transaction. Thanks to it, you will find out not only the cost of buying or selling a dollar, but you will also be able to find the bank that offers the most profitable option. This dollar to ruble exchange rate is highlighted in red.

Thus, using special financial instruments and information about the US dollar exchange rate, you can predict the result, make a profitable investment, and make a profit. We tried to make sure that you can get up-to-date information from the presenters at any time.

The latest forecast for the US dollar to ruble exchange rate for 2018 - a table with currency forecasts by month. Expert opinion on the prospects for the USD/RUB pair exchange rate in Russia.

Fresh dollar exchange rate forecast. Will there be growth?

Here's how he assesses the dollar's prospects for the fall and winter of 2018 Kira Yukhtenko, chief editor of InvestFuture and stock columnist:

Until we see the final version of US sanctions against Russia, it will not be easy for the dollar to firmly gain a foothold below 65 rubles. There is too much uncertainty for investors. We do not know whether the sanctions will affect Russian state-owned banks and whether a ban will be introduced on the ownership of Russian government bonds.

In my opinion, the following scenario is likely: in November the ruble will face increased volatility. After the elections to the US Congress on November 6 and the meeting between Trump and Putin on November 11, the American side will return to discussing sanctions. During this period, the dollar can rise above 70 and even above 75 rubles.

In fact, sanctions may not be as harsh as the market fears. And if the price of Brent oil remains at least above $70 per barrel until the end of the year, the ruble will have a chance to strengthen in December.

However, do not let your guard down: economists are warning of a new global crisis already in 2019-2020. If the gloomy forecasts come true, the currencies of all developing countries, including the ruble, will suffer

What will happen to the dollar/ruble exchange rate in 2018?

Dollar/ruble chart (Weekly)

No one can accurately predict the dollar exchange rate - too many factors simultaneously participate in its formation. But, taking into account the high foreign policy risks and structural problems in the Russian economy, experts agree: the ruble exchange rate may continue to decline in the fall and winter of 2018.

At the end of 2018, the dollar to ruble exchange rate may rise to 73-75 rubles. If you want to buy a currency for long-term savings, listen to the advice of economists: any depreciation can be used for purchases

Risk factors for the ruble

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to raise interest rates, which puts long-term pressure on the currencies of all developing countries
• Waiting for the final package of anti-Russian sanctions from the United States in November 2018. Additional sanctions from the EU and UK are also possible.
• Possible decline in oil prices - the United States insists that Russia and Saudi Arabia “bring down” the price by increasing production
• Trade wars around the world - possible slowdown in growth rates of all major economies in the world

Factors supporting the ruble

• The Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate in September 2018, and also suspended currency purchases for the Ministry of Finance as part of the budget until the end of the year. This decision allowed the exchange rate to stabilize in September.
• Until the fall, the price of oil continued to rise thanks to the OPEC agreement, as a deficit formed in the market.

Economists believe that the positive factors listed above will limit the potential for the ruble to weaken in the coming months. Without them, the Russian currency would be in danger of falling more rapidly.

Dollar forecast for 2018 by month. Table

Based on the forecasts of 11 stock analysts, we compiled average forecasts for the USD/RUB pair by month. The data in the table is given at the end of the month.

Forecasts for the end of 2018 by month

Dollar forecast for October 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for October 2018 is 67.98 rubles. October may turn out to be a difficult month for the ruble: we are waiting for details of US sanctions against Russia and fighting panic within the country.

Dollar forecast for November 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for November 2018 is 70.39 rubles. On November 6, elections to the US Congress will take place, and after this date, Republicans and Democrats can resume discussion of anti-Russian sanctions.

Dollar forecast for December 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for December 2018 is 68.25 rubles. The market is focusing on the last Fed meeting of the year, which will clarify the central bank’s plans for 2019.

This page presents the official dollar exchange rate, which was established by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Also, for your convenience, there are graphs of exchange rate dynamics according to the Central Bank data and changes by date.

Data is updated every minute.

Let us remind you that the US dollar (usd) is accepted in almost all countries

By subscribing to updates, you can always follow the official dollar exchange rate in the Central Bank online and track adjustments for the month. Information from the central bank will be of interest to citizens of various categories: businessmen, investors, business owners.

One of the ways to make money on the difference in the dollar exchange rate is to trade on the Forex currency market, which requires training and serious experience, as well as the installation of special software. You can make a significant profit by playing on the difference in the dollar exchange rate only if you put a fairly large amount of money into circulation. The risks of such operations are very high; you should think seriously before plunging into the abyss of currency speculation.

Why is it impossible to make payments in dollars in Russia?

There are certain types of payments that are allowed to be carried out in Russia in dollars, but for the most part they concern legal entities.

In order to increase the level of economic development and international authority, Russia is interested in ensuring the stability of its national currency, therefore transactions with dollars are limited.

The official dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in Russia today, October 28, 2019, 16:08, is 63.9966 rub. (1 USD = 63.9966 rubles). The Bank of Russia dollar exchange rate for tomorrow, October 29, 2019, is set at 63.87 rub. Below on this page you can see a graph of the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate to the Russian ruble (USD/RUB) for a week, a month, a quarter, for a year and for all time, find out the exchange rate for a given date, and also find out when, how and why the Central Bank sets the official rate.

Dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today, October 28, 2019 (Monday): 63.9966 rubles.

The official dollar exchange rate of the Bank of Russia for today, October 28, 2019, 16:08, is 63.9966 rub. Compared to the previous working day, the Central Bank increased the dollar exchange rate in Russia by 0 rub. (0%).

Dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for tomorrow, October 29, 2019 (Tuesday): 63.87 rubles.

The official dollar exchange rate of the Bank of Russia for tomorrow, October 29, 2019, is 63.87 rub. Compared to the previous working day, the dollar exchange rate was reduced by -0.1266 rub. (-0.2%).

Dynamics of the dollar exchange rate in Russia - Graph

The minimum value of the dollar exchange rate according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2019 was 62.5229 67.192 rub. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar exchange rate has strengthened by 3.0829 rub. (4.82%).

The minimum value of the dollar exchange rate according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the current month was 63.6336 rub., maximum value - 65.4399 rub. Over the month, the US dollar rose against the Russian ruble by 0.6441 rub. (1.01%).

Archive of the dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the selected date

In this table you can see the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate in Russia by day for a given date.

When and how does the Central Bank set the official ruble exchange rate?

The Central Bank sets the US dollar/ruble exchange rate for tomorrow every weekday. The established rate begins to be effective on the next calendar day after the day of establishment and remains in force until the next established rate comes into effect. The data is published on the regulator’s website until 15:00 Moscow time (usually this happens around 14:00)

Let's look at an example: on Tuesday, the Bank of Russia set the dollar exchange rate for Wednesday. This is the dollar exchange rate for tomorrow. In this case, on Tuesday the exchange rate for today is the rate set on Monday. On Wednesday, the rate for today becomes the rate set on Tuesday, and the rate for tomorrow (Thursday) is published on Wednesday at around 14:00 Moscow time.

A separate logic applies on weekends and holidays. So, on Friday, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation sets the exchange rate for tomorrow, which is valid on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The new rate for tomorrow will be published only on Monday afternoon and will come into force on Tuesday. A similar logic applies to holidays.

How is the Central Bank exchange rate formed? To do this, the regulator averages quotes for the USDRUB pair in trading on the currency section of the Moscow Exchange during the index session (from 10:00 Moscow time to 11:30 Moscow time). Then, based on the dollar exchange rate, the Bank of Russia forms the official rates of other 33 currencies. The exchange rate of the ruble depends on supply and demand in the market.

Why do we need the official dollar exchange rate, since it quickly becomes outdated and does not “keep up” with the real dynamics of the foreign exchange market? It is a standard for government agencies when preparing reports, and also serves as a convenient reference point for people who are far from the world of stock exchange news.

Average monthly dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation 2017, 2018, 2019

The average dollar exchange rate according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the current year is 64.8794 rubles.