Euro forecast for June Sberbank. Euro exchange rate forecast. Euro forecasts for June
We present to your attention latest euro exchange rate forecast for June 2017– the latest news suggests that the beginning of summer may bring a number of changes that will affect not only businessmen, but also ordinary citizens. A series of monitoring works have recently been carried out in the European Union, as a result of which experts confidently stated that the introduction of restrictions on cooperation with Russia caused the loss of more than one hundred billion euros for the countries representing the Union. Naturally, this continues to influence the general economic characteristics, as well as the state of the regional economy as a whole. As you know, Great Britain recently left the European Union, and the latest news suggests that this event has affected the euro exchange rate; the value of the currency has begun to actively decline, not yielding to the fall of the Russian ruble.
More recently, the weakest link in the currency troika, consisting of the euro, the ruble and the ruble, was unofficially recognized as the ruble, but now experts have some doubts about this. There is also no confirmation that the threshold value of one hundred rubles per dollar or euro will increase. Experts' forecasts are based on the economic state of not only our country, but also the European zone and the United States of America, so let's consider brief information about each participant in the formation of foreign exchange markets.
- Euro exchange rate forecast based on the situation in the European zone. There is a high probability of deflationary threats here, so the European Central Bank may introduce new, unconventional measures in order to soften the situation. Moreover, the economic situation is quite difficult, characterized by weak growth of the regional economy and low inflation rates. In the first half of this year, the euro currency fell in dollar equivalent to levels that can be called the lowest over the past four years.
- USA. The dollar exchange rate will likely remain stable until the presidential elections, despite the failure of the shale revolution and the slowdown in the overall economic development of the state. Election campaigns will help stabilize the situation, but this will not protect the currency from the inevitable fluctuations that will be caused by changes in the country’s trade affairs. In addition, investors say that it is likely that an alternative to the pound sterling and the euro will be created in the form of the dollar. Therefore, the forecast for the euro exchange rate has not been encouraging lately.
- Russian Federation. Our experts hope in every possible way for the improvement of the state’s economic indicators, which should also affect the stabilization of the national currency. By the way, the economy should strengthen because at the moment it is in the worst situation, although it is too early to talk about any cataclysms.
The forecast for the euro exchange rate was also influenced by the large number of refugees who require humanitarian assistance, as well as the Middle East. Naturally, this begins to unnerve the citizens of the European Union, because the overall standard of living in the countries is falling, which becomes the cause of internal tension.
So, fresh accurate forecast of the euro exchange rate for June 2017 have not yet been announced, but experts advise citizens not to place all their hopes on one or another monetary unit, and to keep their savings in different currencies. Now it is better to focus on those currencies that are most often in constant use among citizens, so there is no need to rush to exchange all ruble earnings for equivalent currency amounts.
We should not forget that it is often during a crisis that the turnover of counterfeit money in the markets increases, so citizens should be careful when purchasing currency and check the serial numbers of banknotes. Even a disappointing forecast for the euro exchange rate cannot guarantee the absence of counterfeit bills, and the original ones must have a twelve-digit number, which contains one letter and eleven numbers. This letter must be replaced with a serial number from the Latin alphabet, and then sum all the numbers from the series. The final amount should be eight, unless of course it is real money.
How much will the Euro (EUR) cost in June 2017
As mentioned earlier, the region’s economy is quite weak, which also affects the forecast for the euro exchange rate as a whole, so the currency will face constant pressure throughout this year. Of course, in the euro-ruble pair it will be able to maintain its strength at this stage, but experts do not predict dynamic growth, unlike last year. The latest news suggests that the currency of the European Union is the most liquid and widespread as a dollar alternative, so without it it will not be possible to achieve economic equilibrium, so in any case, this currency will exist on the market. Moreover, the forecast for the euro exchange rate is of great concern to the United States of America, which is interested in its stabilization.
Fresh euro exchange rate forecast for June 2017
The euro exchange rate forecast is based on the actions of the European Central Bank, which may change quantitative easing programs in order to actively stimulate the economic development of the Union as a whole. But so far everyone is talking about a gradual decline in the value of the currency, but there is no talk of an increase in prices for the euro, because even its active helper, the United States of America, is now dealing with election issues, so the problem of supporting the European currency has faded into the background. According to experts, the euro exchange rate forecast for June 2017 can be based on the following values: from sixty-one rubles to sixty-four rubles per euro.It is more difficult to accurately predict the official euro exchange rate even for the next day than the US dollar exchange rate. The dollar forecast is based on preliminary exchange data, which is known several hours before the Russian Central Bank sets this rate as the official rate for the next day. This is not even a forecast, but an exact value. With the euro it is more difficult; at the same moment in time you can only get an approximate (calculated) exchange rate, and not an exact one up to the 4th digit.
Euro exchange rate forecast as of 21:15 (Moscow time) 10/28/2019
Latest official euro exchange rate for 29.10.2019 amounts to 70.8382 rub. If the Central Bank determined the official exchange rate at the moment (10/28/2019 21:15 MSC), then it would be 70.76 rub. But in fact, the next official rate will be set at 10/29/19 11:44 (Moscow time).
Long-term forecast for the euro
Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to give a forecast for the long term. The euro/ruble exchange rate depends both on the situation in Russia and on the situation on world exchanges (i.e., on the euro/dollar exchange rate). In any case, you shouldn’t guess, you won’t guess, it’s better to use
The situation with the euro has always been difficult, and the last five years have been no exception. Initially, it was in its standard position, but at that time no one could predict a sharp rise in oil prices.
Euro exchange rate forecast for June 2018. Table by day.
Against this background, the euro exchange rate was growing rapidly and already in 2014 it was 76 rubles. This day, popularly called Black Friday, will be remembered for a long time by investors, bankers and traders. Nobody expected such a sharp jump, as a result of which the ruble lost its position significantly.
But this was not the end, because already in 2015 the euro reached its record high of 86 rubles. It was very difficult to accept such an indicator and compare it with the usual exchange rate of 40-50 rubles per euro. In any case, there were those who were able to work excellently at this, while others were left simply with nothing. In 2016, the rate began to fall, albeit slowly but surely, which continued until the end of the year. In 2017, there was a positive and stable dynamics of euro growth, which will continue until the spring of 2018.
Euro exchange rate forecast for June 2018. Are there prerequisites for growth?
The sharp rise in the euro's exchange rate was announced by experts in the field of forecasting. They believe that the perfect combination of events that have occurred in recent weeks has allowed the single European currency to take several positions ahead. Judging by the situation in recent months, the euro is in a state of “perfect storm.” The euro has already been released like a genie from the bottle - and, in principle, the way has been paved for a continued correction in the foreign exchange market. The balance of political risks shifted in favor of the European currency after the elections in France; no negative surprises should be expected from the elections in Germany. So while the skies in the Eurozone are calm, politics in the United States pleases the Euro with its negative outcome.
The scandal with Russia is also undermining trust in the authorities in America, against the background of which not only the euro, but also the dollar is strengthening. Traders and bankers also note the possible growth rate of the euro. In fact, the currency is still undervalued, it is expected that the effect will exceed all forecasts, but whether it will be long-lasting is not yet clear. In addition, the euro continues to benefit from strong growth despite the recent fall in PMIs. Russian banks are also expecting an influx of foreign capital and a healthy current account surplus in the Eurozone. However, there is talk that we should not be surprised if turnover for the euro disappears in the near term, after all, it has been a meteoric rise for the currency in recent times.
Euro exchange rate forecast for June 2018. What affects the ruble/euro exchange rate?
The euro exchange rate, like any other currency, can change due to a number of factors. Among the most pronounced are the cost of oil on the world market and, of course, the general economic situation in the world. The third, no less important reason, experts call the European alliance, the existence of which is predicted for another five years, after which there will be a complete collapse. The reasons why the euro may change its exchange rate against the ruble are also the policies of the world's banks, the unemployment rate and much more.
Euro exchange rate forecast for June 2018.
In April, the euro reached the threshold of 80 rubles. Analysts demonstrate calculations with the euro forecast in the range of 75 - 82 rubles.
It is only by the end of 2018, as experts say, that the euro will take a pause from this period and begin to decline. An interesting point of view on the euro exchange rate was provided by Brent Donnelly, who works as a Forex trader at HSBC Bank in New York. In his desire to give a qualitative forecast for the future exchange rate of the euro, he tries to explain some of the market dynamics. He believes that the euro should take a pause for breath because the stock market in the European zone is not very good. In his note, Donnelly notes that European stocks are the most crowded place in the world, so they don't look attractive right now and if you bought CAC-40 at the open the next day you were down about 3%.
Which currency is it better to invest money in June 2018?
Investing money in foreign currency today is a rather risky proposition. And if we are talking about making a profit, then you need to be very careful. Many experts say that the euro will grow, albeit slowly but surely. Therefore, at such races you can consider the prospect of making money. But at the same time, there is the other side of the coin, where experts say that you don’t need to be so sure that the euro will rise and then another collapse will not happen.
Euro exchange rate forecast for June 2018 from Sberbank (table by day)
| will rise | 75,02 | 76,04 +1,0171 |
| will rise | 74,72 | 75,01 +0,2914 |
| will rise | 74,89 | 75,18 +0,2914 |
| will rise | 75,06 | 75,39 +0,3314 |
| will decrease | 75,27 | 75,24 –0,0343 |
| will decrease | 73,39 | 73,18 –0,2114 |
| will decrease | 73,06 | 72,27 –0,7886 |
| will decrease | 72,15 | 72,04 –0,1086 |
| will rise | 71,92 | 71,98 +0,0629 |
| will rise | 71,41 | 71,7 +0,2914 |
| will rise | 71,58 | 71,81 +0,2343 |
| will rise | 71,69 | 71,98 +0,2914 |
| will rise | 71,86 | 72,27 +0,4057 |
| will rise | 73,55 | 74,04 +0,4857 |
| will rise | 73,92 | 74,65 +0,7257 |
| will rise | 74,53 | 75,58 +1,0571 |
| will rise | 75,46 | 75,85 +0,3886 |
| will rise | 74,3 | 75,2 +0,8971 |
| will rise | 74,84 | 75,01 +0,1714 |
| will rise | 75,01 | 75,18 +0,1714 |
| will rise | 75,18 | 75,39 +0,2114 |
| will decrease | 75,39 | 75,24 –0,1543 |
| will decrease | 73,51 | 73,18 –0,3314 |
| will decrease | 73,18 | 72,27 –0,9086 |
| will decrease | 72,27 | 72,04 –0,2286 |
| will decrease | 72,04 | 71,98 –0,0571 |
| will rise | 71,53 | 71,7 +0,1714 |
| will rise | 71,7 | 71,81 +0,1143 |
| will rise | 71,81 | 71,98 +0,1714 |
| will rise | 71,98 | 72,27 +0,2857 |
| will rise | 73,67 | 74,04 +0,3657 |
| will rise | 74,04 | 74,65 +0,6057 |
| will rise | 74,65 | 75,58 +0,9371 |
| will rise | 75,58 | 75,85 +0,2686 |
| Will not change | 75,85 | 75,85 - |
The euro exchange rate forecast for June 2017 allows for a new stage of weakening of the European currency. Despite the expected economic growth of 1.8%, the consequences of Brexit will lead to the devaluation of the euro in the summer.
At the same time, the ECB will leave its quantitative easing policy in place until the end of the year.
Macro indicators and the position of the ECB
Despite Brexit, the macroeconomic indicators of the eurozone economy remain stable. According to forecasts by representatives of the European Commission, economic growth in the eurozone in 2017 will reach 1.8% (in 2016, GDP growth was 1.6%). The ECB's monetary policy is aimed at supporting economic development.
The ECB maintains its quantitative easing policy in an effort to accelerate economic growth. The regulator expects to revive the economy by providing it with additional liquidity. At the same time, the base rate remains at a record low level, which negatively affects the positions of the euro.
The ECB's main problem is the inflation index, which continues to lag behind the target value (2%). This year, price growth is expected to be 1.3%, but experts admit that deflation will resume. As a result, sustainable economic growth is at risk. In addition, the regulator is concerned about the state of the banking sector, which is on the verge of a large-scale crisis.
European banks, which previously did not experience any particular difficulties, need additional capitalization. The deterioration in the quality of loan portfolios forces financial institutions to increase costs for the formation of reserves. The most serious problems await credit institutions in Spain, Italy and Greece. German financial giants also need government support.
Experts believe that in such circumstances the European currency has significant potential for further weakening. In June 2017, the euro exchange rate may update the minimum values of the current year, analysts predict.
Euro forecasts for June
Representatives of Investec Asset Management note the influence of political factors on the dynamics of currency quotes. In 2017, elections will be held in a number of European countries, which increases the degree of political uncertainty. The possible rise to power of populists and Eurosceptics will be a new blow to the position of the European currency.
In addition, European governments will not be able to allocate sufficient funds to support the economy. Austerity policies will prevent the eurozone economy from regaining pre-crisis growth rates.
In such conditions, quotes between the euro and the dollar will approach parity, analysts say. In June, the euro/dollar exchange rate will fluctuate in the range of 1.05-1.07 dollars/euro.
UBS analysts are more optimistic about the future of the European currency. According to their forecasts, in the near future the euro will be able to strengthen to 1.10-1.12 dollars/euro. Negative factors that weaken the position of the European currency have already affected the movement of quotes. In the future, they will have a minimal effect on exchange rate dynamics.
Changes in euro/ruble quotes will depend on the stability of the domestic budget and the dynamics of oil prices.
Dynamics against the ruble
The dynamics of the euro against the ruble will remain volatile. Despite the negative factors for the European currency, fluctuations in value will remain within 3%. At the same time, the position of the ruble will depend on the cost of oil and the balance of the domestic budget.
Another collapse in oil prices will lead to an inevitable weakening of the ruble. As a result, the euro exchange rate will return to the range of 65-70 rubles/euro. The government's financial reserves are almost exhausted, forcing officials to look for alternative sources to finance budget expenditures. The devaluation of the ruble will increase the ruble price of a barrel of oil, which will reduce the budget deficit.
The basic forecast assumes stabilization of oil prices within the range of 53-56 dollars per barrel. In this case, the domestic currency will be able to avoid a significant weakening. As a result, the euro exchange rate will remain in the range of 60-65 rubles/euro.
In June of this year, the euro's position will be vulnerable to external challenges, which will affect the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. Political uncertainty and the consequences of Brexit will become a new test for the euro.
The euro/dollar exchange rate will reach 1.05-1.07 dollars/euro. At the same time, optimists allow the euro to strengthen to 1.10-1.12 dollars/euro.
Euro/ruble quotes will be determined by energy market trends and the Russian budget deficit. The implementation of the optimistic scenario will keep quotes in the range of 60-65 rubles/euro. A decrease in oil prices will result in a depreciation of the ruble to 65-70 rubles/euro.
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Mirrors
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Asylum
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