Transport tax / 03.03.2024

General population growth rate. Vital Statistics Population Statistics Formulas

The population of the region is characterized by the following data, thousand people:

1. At the beginning of the year:

actually lived 1504.6

including temporarily 7.3

temporarily absent 4.8

2. During the year:

born 7.8

including permanent population 7.6

died 10.2

including resident population 10.1

arrived for permanent residence 35.6

the permanent population left for permanent residence in other settlements 18.6

Define:

1) the current population at the end of the year;

2) the size of the resident population at the beginning and end of the year;

3) for the permanent population coefficients:

Fertility, mortality, natural increase;

Vitality, population turnover, economics of reproduction;

Migration, intensity of migration turnover; efficiency of migration, general population growth.

Solution:

1) We will find the current population at the end of the year using the balance sheet scheme:

NN K = NN N + N - M + arrived for permanent residence +

Returned from being temporarily absent -

The permanent population left for permanent residence in other localities

NN K and NN N - current population at the end and beginning of the year,

N and M are the number of births and deaths in the current population during the year.

NN K = 1504.6 + 7.8 - 10.2 + 35.6 - 18.6 = 1519.2 thousand people.

2) The permanent population at the beginning of the year will be found using the formula:

PN N = NN N - VP N + VO N,

PN N, NN N, VP N, VO N - the number of permanent, present, temporarily resident and temporarily absent population at the beginning of the year.

PN N = 1504.6 - 7.3 + 4.8 = 1502.1 thousand people.

at the end of the year:

PN K = PN N + N - M + P - V,

N and M - the number of births and deaths in the resident population during the year;

P and V - the number of permanent residents who arrived and left for permanent residence during the year.

PN K = 1502.1 + 7.6 - 10.1 + 35.6 - 18.6 = 1516.6 thousand people.

3) To calculate the coefficients of natural and mechanical growth, it is necessary to find the average size of the permanent population.

Having data on the size of the permanent population at the beginning and end of the year, we determine the average number using the simple arithmetic average formula:

The birth rate is calculated using the formula:

The mortality rate is calculated using the formula:

The natural increase rate can be determined by the formula:

For every thousand people in the permanent population, 5 children were born during the year, approximately 7 people died, and the natural decline was approximately 2 people.

Let us determine the vitality coefficient (Pokrovsky index), which is the ratio of the number of births to the number of deaths (per year) according to the formula:

The population turnover rate is calculated using the formula:

The number of births and deaths per 1000 population on average per year is 11.73.

The reproduction efficiency coefficient shows the share of natural growth in the total population turnover.

The coefficient of economical reproduction of the population is equal to:

Consequently, in the region the share of natural decline in the total population turnover is 14%.

Let's calculate the indicators of mechanical movement (migration) of the population.

Mechanical movement (migration) of the population is the arrival in a given locality and departure from it.

The arrival rate is determined by the formula:

For every 1,000 permanent population, approximately 23 people arrived on average per year.

The retirement rate is determined by the formula:

The number of people leaving for every 1000 people on average per year was approximately 12 people.

We calculate the migration (mechanical growth) coefficient in two ways:

The influx of population into this territory amounted to 11 people for every 1000 permanent population.

The intensity coefficient of migration turnover is calculated using the formula:

The migration efficiency coefficient is calculated using the formula:

By adding the migration coefficient to the natural increase rate, we obtain the total population growth rate

which means an increase for every 1000 people.

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The essence of migration and migration growth

In a simplified way, the concept of “migration” is deciphered as a change of place of residence (moving).

The phenomenon of migration is one of the key concepts of the demographic process, since the functioning of the state is directly dependent on this action. Migration affects the population of a state, determining its economic situation.

The concept of migration growth is designated in demography as the difference between those who arrive in a country (region, territory) for permanent residence and those who permanently leave it.

The migration process is classified according to several criteria:

size;
form;
cause;
character;
time parameter;
legal status.

Migration growth formula

To calculate migration growth, several coefficients may be required:

the number of people arriving in any region (P);
number of people who left the region (B),
net (balance) migration (MS).

The formula for migration growth is the difference between people who arrived and those who left the corresponding territory:

MS=P-V.

The migration growth formula can give both positive and negative results. If the resulting total is less than zero, then we can talk about “migration loss.” To get the opposite result, you need a positive number.

Mechanical population growth

There is a second way to calculate migration growth in the case when the total and natural increase is known. Mechanical growth is obtained by subtracting natural growth from total growth.

Relative indicator values can be calculated for certain population groups. For example, the number of visitors is divided by a certain number of local residents (often per thousand). The formula for migration growth in this case is as follows:

KP=(P/N)*1000.

KP – arrival coefficient,

P number of visitors,

N – number of local residents.

To obtain more accurate statistical indicators, average values are calculated over several years, which makes it possible to analyze the current situation, determine immigration policy and manage labor resources.

Types of migration

Depending on the type of migration, the features of migration growth will also differ:

Episodic migration (leisure travel, tourism, business) has no time frame or direction. Migration is not subject to control and is poorly studied.
Commuting migration is caused by the population’s need for constant travel (for example, daily trips to work or school). This type of movement does not have a significant impact on migration growth, unless a person decides to change his place of residence.
Seasonal migration, due to which the labor shortage is filled, production needs are met.
Irreversible migration, on which the magnitude of migration growth most depends. It represents a permanent move or a complete change of residence.

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Basic concepts:

population statistics; permanent population size; average population; overall growth; natural growth; mechanical gain; total growth rate; birth rate; mortality rate; Pokrovsky coefficient; infant mortality rate; coefficient of mechanical population growth; working capacity coefficient of the entire population; permanent population size; labor resources; working population.

Population statistics(demographic statistics) studies patterns of quantitative changes in population. In accordance with this main task, it studies: the size, composition and movement of the population; causes and factors of population changes, migration, fertility, mortality, life expectancy. It studies the composition of the population according to various criteria - gender, age, social status, education.

Objectives of population statistics:

· study of the number, location, demographic and socio-economic composition;

· analysis of reproduction and population dynamics;

· determination of the future size of the entire population and its individual contingents.

The population size is determined by the state at a certain point in time, i.e. as a result of censuses. The census is currently the main method for accurately determining population size. However, population censuses are relatively rare, and population data is constantly required. Therefore, in the periods between censuses, statistical authorities carry out the so-called current population assessment, i.e. carry out calculations based on the latest census data and current statistics on population movements. Its calculations are updated based on the results of the next census.

There are two categories of population taken into account during population censuses: permanent settlement and existing population. TO permanent population include persons who usually live in a given locality, and cash– all persons who were in a given territory at the critical moment of the census, regardless of whether they reside here permanently or temporarily. To determine the size of the permanent population, the census process takes into account those temporarily absent and temporarily residing. Temporarily absent are permanent residents of a given locality who have temporarily left it. Thus, those temporarily absent are part of the permanent population. Temporary residents make up part of the current population.

Resident population can be determined:

where is the current population;

– temporarily absent;

- temporary arrivals.

The average population indicator is of great importance in population statistics. Average number population can be calculated using different methods. The most accurate method is the person-years lived by the population. In this case, the total number of person-years lived by a given population during the period of time being studied is determined and divided by the length of this period. Often the average annual population is determined as half the sum of its size at the beginning and end of the year:

The population is the main material component of society, and the study of the patterns of its development is of great importance for the country's economy.

· natural movement (fertility and mortality);

· migration (mechanical) movement.

· population census;

· current accounting of the natural movement of the population and its migration;

· sample and special demographic surveys;

· registers and various population records.

The main source of population data is the census, which is conducted once every 10 years. During this process, the population census is carried out in settlements at a certain point in time, which is called the critical moment. In 1853, the principles for conducting the census were formed, the main ones of which are still used today.

Total absolute population growth ():

or ,

where is natural growth;

– mechanical growth.

Wherein: ; ,

where is the number of births;

– number of deaths;

– number of arrivals;

– number of people leaving.

Both general and natural, and migration growth can be positive or negative. Absolute increases– these are interval indicators, they are calculated for certain periods of time (annual indicators are of greatest importance).

Population data is presented on a territorial basis (within administrative-territorial units). Structural indicators are used to characterize the distribution of the population. These are: 1) the proportion of the population living in certain regions; 2) an indicator of physical population density, which is calculated as the ratio of the population to the area it occupies (the highest population density is 15,539 people per 1 km 2 in Monaco).

· small – with a population of up to 50 thousand;

· average – 50-100 thousand;

· big – 100-250 thousand;

· large – 250-1 million;

· largest – more than 1 million

By studying fertility, mortality and natural population growth, statistics, first of all, determines their absolute sizes, i.e. establishes the number of births, the number of deaths and the difference between these numbers, called absolute indicator of natural population growth. These indicators are calculated for a certain period of time - a year, a month, etc.

Fertility rate per 1000 people:

where is the number of births;

Death rate per 1000 people:

Where M– number of deaths.

Natural increase rate:

Population vitality rate(Pokrovsky):

Infant mortality rate (Raths formula):

where – deaths before 1 year;

– born;

Specific fertility rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of births () to the average number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years old):

Total fertility rate (n) is equal to the product of the special fertility rate and the share of women 15-49 years old in the entire population ():

Where .

Migration balance:

Total absolute increase: .

Mechanical population growth rate:

Total population growth rate:

or .

Labor resources- this is the part of the country’s population that has the necessary physical development, health, education, qualifications and professional knowledge to work in the national economy. Labor force statistics studies the following categories:

· population of working age;

· working population of working age;

· labor resources.

Labor resources in general are potential labor resources. In addition to them, there are also existing (functioning or used) labor resources. This is part of the total labor resources employed in the national economy. The difference between potential and existing labor resources characterizes the absolute value of unused labor resources.

Working population is a set of people who are capable of working due to their age and health status. Working age limits are established by labor legislation. In the Republic of Belarus, the working age population is considered to be: for men – 16-59 years; for women – 16-54. The rest of the population is considered disabled according to age. It is divided into two specific groups: the pre-working age population (10-15) and the post-working age population (men 60 years and older, women 55 years and older). The first of them is a source of compensation for loss and replenishment of labor resources in the future. The second is the “pension burden” on the working population.

Not all of the working age population is capable of working. Therefore, it is divided into the working population and the non-working population of working age. Pupils and students of working age, those studying off-the-job at universities and vocational schools, and persons in military service do not participate in social production. In addition, they include part of the population employed in their household, childcare, and other reasons.

· the entire population;

· working age population.

Working capacity rate of the entire population:

– total population.

Working capacity coefficient of the working age population:

Pension load factor:

Labor replacement rate:

Total load factor(age economy coefficient) reflects the degree of load on the working-age population by the population of all non-working ages.

or .

The employed population, in addition to the working population, includes working pensioners (people of retirement age, but not retired; disabled people of I and II disability groups); working teenagers under 16 years of age.

To characterize changes in the number of labor resources over time and the rate of change, the following are calculated: absolute growth; growth rate and rate of increase in labor resources.

· leaving some people beyond working age;

· transition to disability and retirement on preferential terms;

· of death.

The number of potential labor resources can be determined at the beginning and end of the year, taking into account and without taking into account the balance of migration. The difference between the number of potential resources at the beginning and end of the year represents absolute natural increase (). To characterize the intensity of reproduction of labor resources, calculate rate of natural increase ():

; ,

Natural replenishment coefficient:

Natural disposal rate:

where is natural disposal.

Then the coefficient natural increase:

An indicator characterizing the demand and supply of labor - vacancy level:

Intensity level of expected labor release:

The most important grouping of the economically active population is its division into employed and unemployed.

Unemployment rate can be calculated in two ways:

Test questions for topic No. 15

1. How to determine the average annual population?

2. How to find the absolute population growth over a year?

3. How to determine the Pokrovsky coefficient?

4. How to determine the specific fertility rate?

5. Labor resources, main categories.

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Population statistics (demographic statistics) studies patterns of quantitative changes in population. In accordance with this main task, it studies: the size, composition and movement of the population; causes and factors of population changes, migration, fertility, mortality, life expectancy. It studies the composition of the population according to various criteria - gender, age, social status, education.

Objectives of population statistics:

study of the number, location, demographic and socio-economic composition; analysis of reproduction and population dynamics; determination of the future size of the entire population and its individual contingents.

Population is the starting point for calculating many indicators and is of great economic and social importance. Knowledge of it is necessary for management, planning of economic and social development of the country. The size of a country is usually judged by its population.

The population is constantly changing due to birth and death rates, as well as due to spatial movement of the population.

There are two categories of population taken into account during population censuses: permanent settlement and existing population. The permanent population includes persons who usually live in a given locality, and the current population includes all persons who were in a given territory at the critical moment of the census, regardless of whether they live here permanently or temporarily. To determine the size of the permanent population, the census process takes into account those temporarily absent and temporarily residing. Temporarily absent are permanent residents of a given locality who have temporarily left it. Thus, those temporarily absent are part of the permanent population. Temporary residents make up part of the current population.

The resident population can be determined:

where is the current population;

– temporarily absent;

- temporary arrivals.

The average population indicator is of great importance in population statistics. Average population size can be calculated using different methods. The most accurate method is the person-years lived by the population. In this case, the total number of person-years lived by a given population during the period of time being studied is determined and divided by the length of this period. Often the average annual population is determined as half the sum of its size at the beginning and end of the year.

where is the population at the beginning of the year;

– population at the end of the year.

If data is available for several dates that are equal to one another, the calculation can be made using the average chronological simple formula:

If the time distance between the dates is unequal, then the calculation is carried out using the arithmetic (chronological) weighted average formula:

To calculate population changes over time, dynamics indicators are calculated.

The population is the main material component of society and the study of the patterns of its development is of great importance for the country's economy.

For each individual country, the total population can change due to two factors:

natural movement (fertility and mortality); migration (mechanical) movement.

However, not only the total population size is changing, but also the composition.

Currently, statistics use four complementary sources of population data:

population census; current accounting of the natural movement of the population and its migration; sample and special demographic surveys; registers and various population records.

Data from these sources is used for different purposes and cannot replace each other. However, there is a close connection between them: each source complements or continues the other.

When characterizing population dynamics, two circumstances must be taken into account:

1) you can compare the population of only one category (either permanent or existing);

2) if there were administrative-territorial changes, then the population data should be comparable in relation to the territory.

Total absolute population growth ():

or ,

where is natural growth;

– mechanical growth.

Wherein ;

where is the number of births;

– number of deaths;

– number of arrivals;

– number of people leaving.

Both general and natural, and migration growth can be positive or negative. Absolute increases are interval indicators; they are calculated for certain periods of time (annual indicators are of greatest importance).

One of the main characteristics of population distribution is its division into urban and rural. According to the accepted classification, cities are divided into:

small – with a population of up to 50 thousand; average – 50-100 thousand; large – 100-250 thousand; large – 250-1 million; the largest – more than 1 million.

By studying fertility, mortality and natural population growth, statistics, first of all, determines their absolute sizes, i.e. establishes the number of births, the number of deaths and the difference between these numbers, called the absolute indicator of natural population growth. These indicators are calculated for a certain period of time - a year, a month, etc.

Relative indicators for these quantities, called coefficients, are also calculated.

Birth rate per 1000 people:

where is the number of births;

– average population size.

Mortality rate per 1000 people:

where M is the number of deaths.

Natural increase rate:

or equal to the difference between the birth rate and death rate:

Population vitality coefficient (Pokrovsky):

shows how many newborns there are per one deceased.

Infant mortality rate (Rats formula):

where – deaths before 1 year;

– born;

– born in the year preceding the current one.

The specific fertility rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of births () to the average number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years):

The general fertility rate (n) is equal to the product of the special fertility rate and the share of women 15-49 years old in the entire population ():

Where .

Migration balance:

Total absolute increase: .

Mechanical population growth rate:

Total population growth rate:

or .

Vital statistics include marriage and divorce rates. Migration rates are also calculated. There is a distinction between immigration and emigration. Migration indicators are the number of arrivals to a given locality, those leaving and the difference between them - the balance of migration. The balance can be positive (mechanical population growth) and negative. The intensity of migration and emigration, as well as the relative change in numbers, is determined as the ratio of these indicators to the average population, multiplied by 1000.

Labor resources are the part of the country's population that has the necessary physical development, health, education, qualifications and professional knowledge to work in the national economy. Labor force statistics studies the following categories:

working age population; working-age population of working age; labor resources.

The size of a country's labor force is primarily determined by the size of the working-age population.

Labor resources in general are potential labor resources. In addition to them, there are also existing (functioning or used) labor resources. This is part of the total labor resources employed in the national economy. The difference between potential and existing labor resources characterizes the absolute value of unused labor resources.

To characterize the age structure of the population from the point of view of labor resources, a number of relative indicators of structure and coordination are calculated. This is the proportion of persons under working age, working age and over working age in the total population. The higher the proportion of people of working age, the more efficient the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources.

The working-age population is a set of people capable of working due to age and health. Working age limits are established by labor legislation. In the Republic of Belarus, the working age population is considered to be: for men – 16-59 years; for women – 16 – 54. The rest of the population is considered disabled according to age. It is divided into two specific groups: the pre-working age population (10-15) and the post-working age population (men 60 years and older, women 55 years and older). The first of them is a source of compensation for loss and replenishment of labor resources in the future. The second is the “pension burden” on the working population.

Not all of the working age population is capable of working. Therefore, it is divided into the working population and the non-working population of working age. Students of working age, off-the-job studies at universities and vocational schools, and persons in military service do not participate in social production. In addition, they include a part of the population engaged in childcare and other reasons in their households).

The second group includes the working age population with disability groups I and II and persons receiving pensions on preferential terms.

The number of labor resources is determined as of a certain point in time. When calculating a number of indicators, the average annual number of labor resources is used, which is determined in the same way as the average annual population.

Based on these population groups, two working capacity coefficients are determined:

the entire population; working age population.

Working capacity rate of the entire population:

where is the working-age population of working age;

- the entire population.

Working capacity coefficient of the working age population:

where is the working age population.

Pension load factor:

where is the population of retirement age.

Labor replacement rate:

where is the population of pre-working age.

The total load coefficient (age economy coefficient) reflects the degree of load of the working-age population by the population of all non-working ages:

or .

In addition to the working population, the employed population includes working pensioners (people of retirement age, but not retired; disabled people of I and II disability groups), working teenagers under 16 years of age.

To characterize changes in the number of labor resources over time and the rate of its change, absolute growth, growth rate and growth rate of labor resources are calculated.

The change in the number of labor resources from one date to another within a year is called the movement of labor resources. There are natural and mechanical movement of labor resources.

Natural movement consists of the replenishment of potential labor resources due to the transition of the younger generation to working age (15-16) and their loss due to:

some people going beyond working age; transition to disability and pension on preferential terms; of death.

With mechanical movement, replenishment occurs due to immigration, and loss occurs due to emigration of the population.

The number of potential labor resources can be determined at the beginning and end of the year, taking into account and without taking into account the balance of migration. the difference between the number of potential resources at the beginning and end of the year represents absolute natural increase (). To characterize the intensity of reproduction of labor resources, the coefficient of natural increase () is calculated:

; ,

where is the coefficient of natural replenishment;

– coefficient of natural disposal;

– average annual number of labor resources.

Natural replenishment coefficient:

where is natural replenishment.

Natural disposal rate:

where is natural disposal.

Then the coefficient of natural increase:

An indicator characterizing the demand and supply of labor - the vacancy rate:

where is the declared number of required labor force;

– average number of personnel of the enterprise.

Intensity level of expected labor release:

Unemployment rate:

Important for the Republic of Belarus and its regions are indicators characterizing the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources.

Control questions

How to determine the average annual population? How to find absolute population growth over a year? How to determine the Pokrovsky coefficient? How to determine the specific fertility rate? Labor resources, main categories. How to calculate the pension burden ratio of the population?

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These are the coefficients: arrivals and departures; mobility (gross migration) and mechanical growth.

Arrival and departure coefficients are presented respectively in the following form:

K P = 1000, K V = 1000,

Average annual population.

Thus, in Ukraine last year, for every thousand of the population there were an average of 17.1 arrivals and 19.7 departures, therefore, the intensity of departures exceeded the intensity of arrivals by 1.2 times.

Mobility coefficient(Gross migration), ‰, will be written as follows:

K R = 1000 or K R = K P +K V.

According to Ukraine data of the same year K R = 17.1 + 19.7 = 36.8 ‰, that is, there were an average of 36.8 migrants per thousand of the average annual population.

Mechanical gain coefficient population size (‰ points) characterizes its intensity and is defined as follows:

K m = or K m = K P - K in ‰ point.

In Ukraine in the last year there has been a negative relative mechanical population growth: K m = - 2.6 ‰, i.e. The intensity of the decrease in the population of Ukraine during this year due to migration amounted to 2.6 ppm.

Special migration rates ,‰, are determined for individual contingents or population groups , for example, separately for men and women, for the working population, as well as for those whose age exceeds the established limit of working capacity or has not yet reached it, for the rural and urban population.

Partial migration rates, ‰, are determined separately for each age group of migrants

, , ‰ point,

where P X, IN X- The number of arrivals and departures for the year separately in X-age group; - Average annual number X-age group.

The average age of migrants in general and within gender, by type of settlement and type of migration is also determined.

Based on the distribution of migrants by age, the absolute and relative variation in the ages of arrivals and departures during the year is determined.

Recently, the structure of migration flows has undergone certain changes. The share of interstate migration is growing, especially among those who have left. The volume of movements between neighboring countries is increasing (the share of arrivals is 94%, and the share of departures is 78% of all interstate migration), as well as non-CIS countries, especially in the direction of departure (22% of interstate migration). Now there are objectively more and more reasons for displacement, namely: the return of forced repatriates and military personnel to their homeland, the emergence of refugees from places of war or departure from environmentally polluted areas. Time for migration affects the development of market processes - attracting foreign investment, establishing international partnerships and commercial ties. In turn, displacement, on the one hand, affects the demographic situation in the country, the structure and volume of the labor market, and on the other hand, complicates the problem of employment of the population, worsens the social and crime situation.

Migration- movement of people between separate territories associated with a permanent, temporary or seasonal change of place of residence.

Reasons for migrations:

economic;
political;
national;
religious.

Population migration- the leading cause of the most important changes that have occurred in the settlement of people on Earth over the past centuries.

The movement of population across a territory is called mechanical movement of the population or population migration. At the same time, a distinction is made between internal and external (outside the country) migration.

Internal migration

Internal migrations include movement of population from village to city, which in many countries is the source of urban growth (it is often called the “great migration of peoples of the 20th century.”). Territorial redistribution of the population also occurs between large and small cities. Both of these species are very widely represented, particularly in Russia.

Although internal migration is typical for all states, in different countries they are at different stages of development. In developing countries, flows of rural residents who do not have land and work rush to cities, and in the most developed countries, “reverse” migrations of the population predominate (from cities to the suburbs, and partly to the countryside).

External migration

Types of external migration:

emigration - the departure of citizens from their country to another for permanent residence or a more or less long term
immigration is the entry of citizens into another country for permanent residence or a more or less long term.

External migrations, which arose in ancient times, received their greatest development in the era of capitalism. In countries where external migrations of the population become widespread, they can have a significant impact on their numbers, for example in the USA, Canada, Australia, Israel. Currently, inland migration flows have increased. At the same time, it became especially widespread. This especially affected Western Europe, which from a center of emigration (existing for several centuries) turned into a center of attraction from 7 countries of the Mediterranean and Asia. Important centers of labor immigration are the United States and oil-producing countries in the Middle East.

In the second half of the 20th century. A new form of external migration has emerged, called “brain drain”. It first appeared after the Second World War, when several thousand scientists were exported from Germany to the United States. These days, along with the brain drain from Europe, there is an exodus from developing countries.

Study of population migration

Analysis of migration data shows where, from where and in what quantities population movements in the country occur.

Population migration is studied using absolute and relative indicators.

Absolute migration rates

1. Number of arrivals to this locality (P)

2. Number of dropouts from this locality (B)

3. Mechanical gain population (MP = P - V)

Relative migration rates

Relative indicators include the arrival rate, departure rate and mechanical increase rate.

The coefficients given below are calculated on a production basis, that is, per 1000 population.

Arrival rate

Shows how many people arrive in a given region on average per 1000 population during a calendar year:

Attrition rate

Shows how many people left a given region on average per 1000 population per year:

Mechanical gain factor

Characterizes the amount of mechanical growth occurring on average per 1000 people of the region’s population per year, and is calculated in two ways:

In 2000, 350,873 people arrived in Russia, and 160,763 people left the Russian Federation during the same year.

Migration – movement of people across the borders of territories with a change of place of residence permanently or for a certain time.

The movement of population within a country is called internal migration, and the movement of population from one country to another - external.

Gross migration (gross migration) or migration turnover	Shows the total number of migrating residents (P + V).
Balance of migration or mechanical increase	Difference between the number of arrivals and departures: (R – V)
Arrival rate
Attrition rate
Mechanical growth rate (migration intensity) of the population	or TO fur pr = K incoming – -TO select
Migration turnover intensity coefficient	Characterizes the frequency of cases of change of residence in the population over a certain period
Migration efficiency ratio
General population growth rate	TO generally = K eat.pr + K mech.pr

Typical problem 2

The mechanical movement of the region's population is characterized by the following data.

The average annual population is 146,900 people.

Arrived in this region - 495 people.

216 people left the region.

Define:

migration increase;

volume of migration;

arrival rate;

attrition rate;

general migration intensity coefficient;

migration turnover intensity coefficient;

migration efficiency ratio.

Draw conclusions.

Solution: 1. Migration increase = 495 – 216 = 279 people.

2. Migration volume = 495+216=711 people.

3. Arrival rate: %o .

4. Attrition rate: %o .

5. General coefficient of migration intensity:

TO fur pr = K incoming – TO select= 3.36 – 1.47 = 1.89%o.

6. Migration turnover coefficient:

7. Migration efficiency ratio:

This region is experiencing population growth due to a positive balance of migration.

Typical problem 3

The country's population at the beginning of the year was 105,599.6 thousand people. During the year, 1311.604 thousand people were born, 2254.856 thousand people died. 2334.034 thousand people arrived for permanent residence in the country, 2252.253 thousand people left. The number of women aged 15 to 49 years was 39097.069 thousand people.

Based on the data above, calculate:

1) population at the end of the year;

2) average annual population;

3) general coefficients of natural and mechanical movement of the population;

4) Pokrovsky vitality coefficient;

5) special coefficient of fertility (fertility) of women;

6) prospective population size in 2 years.

Draw conclusions.

Solution: 1. Population at the end of the year:

S k.g = S n.g + N – M + P – V = 105599.6 + 1311.604 – 2254.856 + 2334.034 – 2252.253 = 104738.129 (thousand people)

2. Average annual population:

(thousand people)

3. General odds:

Fertility rate: %O ;

Death rate: %O ;

Rate of natural increase (loss) of population:

Arrival rate: %o;

Attrition rate: %o;

Mechanical gain coefficient:

TO fur pr = K incoming - TO select= 22.20 – 21.42 = 0.78%o;

Migration efficiency ratio:

Total growth rate:

TO generally = K eat.pr + K mech.pr= -8.97 + 0.78 = -8.19%o.

4. Pokrovsky vitality coefficient:
.

5. Special female fertility rate:

Prospective population size in 2 years:

(thousand people).

From the data presented and obtained, it follows that the country is experiencing a natural population decline; the number of deaths exceeds the number of births, and migration processes do not compensate for the loss. Processes of population depopulation are observed, and the low fertility rate of women plays a large role in the current situation. Thus, after 2 years the predicted population will be less than the actual one.

Objectives of population statistics:

The population is constantly changing due to birth and death rates, as well as due to spatial movement of the population.

The resident population can be determined:

where is the current population;

– temporarily absent;

- temporary arrivals.

where is the population at the beginning of the year;

– population at the end of the year.

If data is available for several dates that are equal to one another, the calculation can be made using the average chronological simple formula: