Population of the USSR by years: population censuses and demographic processes. Population of the USSR How many people lived in the USSR 1990

Original taken from fish12a v

Original taken from aillarionov v Demographic projections and facts

The kind man drew my attention to the forecast of the population of the union republics of the USSR, made by the State Statistics Committee of the USSR just before the dissolution of the Soviet Union and published in the publication “Collection of statistical materials. 1990 / Goskomstat of the USSR. - M .: Finance and Statistics, 1991 ". On ss. 65-66 of this collection provides actual data on the population of the republics at the end of 1990, as well as their forecast values ​​for 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015.

The table below shows actual data on the population size for 1990 and projected values ​​for 2010 from the specified collection, as well as actual data on the population size of post-Soviet states for 2010 fromIMF databases... States are ranked according to the actual change in population (in percent) over the past two decades (penultimate column). Of particular interest is also the degree to which the forecasts of the USSR State Statistics Committee of the population size for 2010 correspond to their actual values ​​in 2010 (the last column)

Actual and projected population in 1990 and 2010

The actual population of Russia in 2010 turned out to be almost 20 million people. less than predicted by the State Statistics Committee of the USSR in early 1991. Nevertheless, in percentage terms, this deviation does not look as catastrophic as, for example, for Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Latvia, Kazakhstan. The most accurate forecasts of the USSR State Statistics Committee for 2010, made in early 1991, turned out to be for Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.

Yes, and the total population of the post-Soviet states in 2010 turned out to be almost 48 million people. less than projected in 1991, and remained about one million more people lower than the population of the USSR at the end of 1990.

Determining the size of the population

Demography is the science of the laws of population reproduction in their socio-historical conditioning. Demography studies the patterns of phenomena and processes that together make up the process of population reproduction (fertility, mortality, nuptiality), age and sex and marriage and family structures of the population, their dependence on living conditions, cultural characteristics, environmental factors, etc. On this basis, demography learns the laws (causes) of the level and dynamics of demographic processes, develops forecasts of the future size and composition of the population, as well as measures to manage demographic processes.

The population of the Russian Federation in comparison with the population of the USSR.

In the early 90s, Russia entered a period of an acute demographic crisis. The population of the former USSR at the time of its collapse was 290 million people, of which 149 million people lived in the RSFSR. In 1986 the natural population growth was 988 thousand people. Since mid-1991, the mortality rate in Russia has exceeded the birth rate for the first time in the last century. 1994 were born 1 million 420 thousand. Russians died 2 million 300 thousand. As a percentage, these indicators were: fertility 0.93%, mortality 1.5%, the difference between them is minus 0.57%. This is no longer a natural increase, but a "decline" in the population.

The natural increase was preserved only in Dagestan, Chechnya, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Kalmykia, Tuva, Yakutia-Sokh, the Altai Republic, in the Tyumen region and in some northern autonomous okrugs.1

Under the influence of an unfavorable combination of demographic factors, the country's population decreased from 148.3 million in 1992 to 146.3 million in 1998, or by 1.3 percent. A further decrease in the population took place in 1999, when in just one year it decreased by 784.5 thousand people, or 0.5%. As of January 1, 2000, according to preliminary data, the population of Russia was 145.5 million people.

A characteristic feature of the demographic situation in Russia in recent years has been a decrease in the country's population in most regions. Until 1990, natural population decline was observed in only 9 regions of the country, in 1991 the number of such regions increased to 29, in 1992 - to 43. In 1998, the processes of natural population decline were observed in 68 regions, where more than 105 lived. million people (72% of the country's population). In 1999, the number of regions where natural population decline was recorded increased to 74. According to preliminary data, in 1999, population losses due to natural decline in both absolute and relative terms (per 1000 population) were the largest after 1992 year.

The most unfavorable indicators of natural population decline (1.5-2 times higher than the average Russian level) have developed in the regions of the North-West, the Central Region, and most regions of the Central Black Earth Region. All this testifies to the alarming rate of decline in the number of, first of all, the indigenous, Russian population in Russia.

A decline in the population in 1998 compared to 1997 was noted in 68 of 89 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, where more than 105 million people currently live (72% of the country's population). These are the territories of the Northern, North-Western and Far Eastern regions, Central (except for Moscow), Volgo-Vyatsky (except for the Chuvash Republic), Central Chernozem (except for the Belgorod region), Volga (except for the Republic of Tatarstan), East Siberian (except for the Republic of Tyva and Aginsky Buryat Autonomous Okrug) regions, as well as the Republic of Adygea, Karachay-Cherkess and the Republic, Altai and Krasnodar Territories, Kemerovo, Kurgan, Omsk, Perm, Rostov, Sverdlovsk, Tomsk regions and Komi-Permyak Autonomous Okrug. Significant rates of decrease in the number of residents were noted in Chukotka (by 4.8%), Koryak (by 2.8%), Evenk (by 2.5%) Autonomous Districts, in Magadan, Sakhalin Oblasts and Taimyr Autonomous Okrug (by 2.3 -1.9%), Murmansk, Kamchatka regions, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (by 1.6-1.5%) and the Chechen Republic

The population has grown in 21 regions of the country. In the Republics of Altai, Dagestan, Ingushetia, the Tyumen region, the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, a noticeable increase in the number of residents (by 1.4-0.5%) provided both natural and migration growth.

Only due to the excess of births over the dead, there are more residents of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, the Tyva Republic, the Yamalo-Nenets and Aginsky Buryat Autonomous Districts. In the Chuvash and Udmurt republics, the republics of Tatarstan, North Ossetia-Alania, Bashkortostan, Stavropol Territory, Belgorod, Kaliningrad, Novosibirsk, Orenburg, Chelyabinsk regions and Moscow, an increase in the population was provided only by the influx of migrants.

In general, until recently, the natural decline in the population was largely compensated by the migration increase in the population. After the collapse of the USSR, over 880 thousand internally displaced persons and 80 thousand refugees moved to Russia. Of these, about 500 thousand arrived in Russia from the CIS countries. However, in all likelihood, this source has lost its role as a significant compensatory element in the near future. If in 1992-1995 the natural population decline due to migration was compensated by 70%, then in 1996-1998 - by 44%. And in 1999 the compensation was only 15%.

Against the background of population decline in Russia and in a number of other European countries, the continuous population growth in a number of Asian and African countries is becoming an increasingly significant factor. On May 11, 2000, the birth of the one billionth inhabitant of this country was registered in India. According to the forecasts of UN demographers, by 2051 India will be home to 1.6 billion people. Thus, India could overtake China, which will have a population of 1.5 billion by that time.

According to E. Zhilinsky, an employee of the Institute of Social and Economic Population Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the emerging situation will inevitably lead to the resettlement of people from densely populated areas (Asia, Africa) to sparsely populated areas. He notes: “This is already being felt in Europe, where the indigenous population is rapidly declining. The demographic expansion will also affect Russia ”.

In general, the general characteristics of the current demographic crisis in the Russian Federation can be formulated as follows.

The demographic crisis is largely predetermined by the grave consequences of the social upheavals of the first half of the twentieth century, as well as by the serious socio-economic losses of the transition period of the 90s. The loss of significant potential for demographic growth against the background of supermortality of the population of Russia led to a decrease in the population and a deterioration in its sex and age structure. Deteriorating health and a persisting high mortality rate of the population, especially in working age, low birth rates and life expectancy, especially among men, high infant mortality, an increase in general and age-specific morbidity against the background of aging and an absolute decline in the population and, at the same time, a decline in the level and quality of life pose a significant threat to the national security of Russia.

Fertility in Russia.

Fertility, birth rate in a certain population group: the number of live births per 1,000 population in 1 year. Along with mortality, child mortality and life expectancy, an important indicator of the vital movement of the population.

Since the second half of the twentieth century, there has been a steady decline in the birth rate in Russia. Intrafamily regulation of childbearing is becoming widespread, becoming an integral part of the way of life of people and becoming the main factor determining the level of fertility. The beginning of this process falls on the post-war years and continues today, and since the beginning of the 90s, the birth rate has also been influenced by abrupt shifts in the political and socio-economic life of the country.

The decline in the birth rate in the 1950s was largely facilitated by the abolition in 1955 of the ban on artificial termination of pregnancy. In the next decade, the dynamics of fertility indicators reflected the continuation of the transition to a new type of reproductive behavior.

Since the end of the 60s, the family model with 2 children has become predominant in Russia. The birth rate has decreased to a level slightly lower than is necessary to ensure simple reproduction of the population in the future (for simple reproduction of the population, the total fertility rate should be 2.14 - 2.15). At the same time, the total fertility rate of the urban population was in the range of 1.7-1.9. In rural areas, the birth rate was higher: from 2.4 to 2.9 births per woman.

In general, over the years of the current decade (1991-1998), repeated births decreased by 1.9 times. At present, Russia has taken a place in this indicator among the countries of the world with the lowest birth rate.

On a national scale, as noted above, the birth rate has a clearly expressed tendency to decrease, which in specific historical conditions and taking into account the strategic tasks facing Russia, cannot be regarded as anything other than a negative phenomenon.

In the foreseeable future, it is difficult to count on changes in the reproductive behavior of Russians. In December 1992, according to a survey carried out by the State Statistics Committee of Russia, only 8% of childless spouses did not express a desire to have a child. According to the 1994 microcensus, almost a quarter (24%) of women aged 18-44 who did not have children at the time of the census did not intend to acquire them. Among women of this age, having one or two children, respectively 76% and 96%, did not plan further births. Thus, in a short time, the reproductive plans of families have noticeably adjusted towards a decrease in the number of children, although, of course, there are exceptions.

One of the negative phenomena of the emerging demographic situation is the constantly increasing number of childbirths outside of a registered marriage. In 1998, unmarried women gave birth to 346 thousand children (27%) of the total number of births. The trend towards an increase in the number of children born out of a registered marriage has been noted since the mid-1980s, but then the number of children born out of wedlock did not exceed 12-13% of the total number of births.

In the past few years, due to birth out of wedlock, about 300 thousand single-parent families have emerged annually, children in which from the first birthday are disadvantaged not only in material terms, but are also flawed in their psychological well-being. Given the current trend, one can expect a significant increase in the number of families that are initially incomplete with all the ensuing economic and social consequences.

Mortality in Russia.

Mortality, a demographic indicator characterizing the state of health of the population: the number of deaths per 1,000 population in 1 year.

The mortality rate in the Russian Federation compared with the mortality rate in the USSR.

From 1965 to 1980 in Russia, there was a steady increase in the mortality rate of the adult population, especially men. At the same time, there was an extremely irregular dynamics of infant mortality, which in general can be characterized as a slow decline. 1981-1984 the mortality rate has stabilized, with an average of 61.8 years for men and 73.2 years for women.

The anti-alcohol campaign in the USSR, which began in 1985, led to an increase in life expectancy for both men and women, which in 1986-1997 was 65 years for men and 75 years for women.

Since 1988, the rise in mortality has resumed, reaching its peak at the height of shock therapy. The transition to a market economy in the early 1990s further exacerbated the existing problems. The accumulation of unfavorable changes in public health over the previous decades, combined with a sharp decline in the standard of living of the majority of the population in the conditions of an unsatisfactory state of the social sphere and basic medicine, the inaccessibility of highly effective treatments for the majority of the population, environmental problems and an increase in crime have aggravated the situation with mortality in the country.

In 1994, in comparison with 1991, the mortality rate of the population (the number of deaths per 1000 population) increased 1.3 times - from 11.4 to 15.7. In the next four years (1995-1998), mortality decreased slightly, which was apparently associated with a certain socio-economic stabilization. However, the outlined positive changes turned out to be short-term and after another sharp decline in the standard of living of the absolute majority of the population caused by the consequences of the August 1998 crisis, a new noticeable growth followed (1998 - 13.6; 1999 - 14.7). Thus, in general, the 90s were marked in Russia by the highest mortality rate since the end of the Great Patriotic War.

Analyzing the reasons for this phenomenon, the head of the laboratory for systemic studies of health, Doctor of Medical Sciences I. Gundarov expresses the following point of view: “The epidemic of supermortality in Russia in the 90s is the result of spiritual values ​​that are historically and culturally alien to us. The Western type of thinking, which is in every possible way introduced into the consciousness of a Russian person, contradicts his moral and emotional genotype, and the extinction of a nation is a specific reaction of rejection to an alien spirituality ”.

It should be noted that over the recent period, an increase in mortality has been noted for all major classes of causes.

Attention is drawn to the growth of pathology, such as hypertension, the death rate from which only in the last year increased by 1.7 times. The death rate from tuberculosis has increased significantly - from 7.7 in 1989 to 20.0 per 100,000 people in 1999. The mortality rate of the population from diseases of the respiratory system, digestion, and neoplasms has increased.

As before, the most acute problem is the high level of premature mortality of the population. For 10 years, it has increased by more than 100 thousand people of working age and is over 520 thousand people a year.

At the same time, the main causes of death of persons of working age are unnatural causes - accidents, poisoning, injuries and suicides. The mortality rate of the working-age population from unnatural causes is the same as in Russia 100 years ago. It is almost 2.5 times higher than the corresponding indicators in developed countries and 1.5 times in developing countries. Thus, more than a third of all deaths in working age (202.0 thousand people, or 39%) in 1998 became victims of accidents, poisoning and injuries (including suicide and murder).

One of the leading places in the structure of mortality of the working-age population is occupied by diseases of the circulatory system - 114.1 thousand, or 28% of the deaths. In connection with the increase in the number of deaths in ever younger age groups, there is a rejuvenation of the average age of death from these diseases. For men of working age, it is already below 50 years (49.5 years).

The high mortality rate of the working-age population from cardiovascular diseases, which exceeds the same indicator in the European Union by 4.5 times. Premature mortality of men has negative socio-demographic consequences - the number of potential suitors is decreasing, the number of single-parent families is growing. As of January 1, 1999, 1.8 million children were registered with the social protection authorities, who were granted survivors' pensions.

This has formed an unprecedented - in more than 10 years - gap in life expectancy between men and women.

The life expectancy of Russian men in 1998 was 61.3 years, which is 13-15 years shorter than that of the male population of developed countries, for women - 72.9 years (shorter by 5-8 years). If the current age and gender mortality rate is maintained in the future, 40% of today's youths who have reached the age of 16 will not live to be 60 years old.

Demographic changes are not good for the Russian language

The twentieth century became the period of the most widespread distribution of the Russian language. In 1915, it was owned by an estimated 140 million people in the world, mainly subjects of the Russian Empire, the total population of which (together with Poland and Finland) was 182 million on January 1, 1915. In terms of the number of its subjects, Russia ranked first in the world among the so-called. civilized countries, and the Russian language at that time in history in terms of its prevalence was on a par with English and, perhaps, even slightly ahead of it.

By the last decade of the twentieth century (by 1990), the number of those who spoke Russian had reached its highest level - 312 million people (Table 1). This was facilitated primarily by the socio-economic and scientific-technical achievements of the Soviet Union. The Russian language was one of the world's leading languages ​​used in all major international organizations. So, after the Second World War, it became one of the working languages ​​of the UN (along with English, Spanish, Chinese, Arabic and French), the official or working language in other international organizations.

Table 1. Change in the share of those who speak Russian in the total population of the Earth in 1900-2050 (estimate and forecast)

The collapse of the USSR and Russia's loss of its former economic, technological and geopolitical influence in the world also affected the position of the Russian language. It became more and more noticeable and steadily decreasing not only the absolute number of those who owned Russian, but also their share in the total population of the Earth.

If in 1990 the USSR, where Russian was the state language and compulsory for study, in terms of its population (290 million people) occupied the third place in the world (and the RSFSR, which was part of it, if we take it separately - the sixth place), then as of December 2011 The Russian Federation, according to the Bureau of the Census (USA), was in 9th place (Table 2).

Table 2. The largest countries in the world by population in 1990 and 2011

Over the past two decades, the population of Russia has noticeably decreased, and the absolute number of Russians in the Russian Federation is also steadily decreasing. According to the 2010 All-Russian Population Census, the number of those who indicated their ethnicity as Russians was 111.02 million, which is almost 5 million less than during the previous 2002 census, and 9 million less than during the 1989 census. year in the RSFSR (119.9 million).

Most notably, the number of ethnic Russians as the main speakers of the Russian language and culture has decreased over the past 20 years in the former Soviet republics of the USSR - by almost half (from 25.3 million in 1989 to 14.9 million in 2010). The reasons for this decline are not only natural decline and migration, but also a change in national identity due to the need for self-realization in a new ethnocultural environment. The most significant (in absolute terms) this decrease was in Ukraine (from 11.4 million people in 1989 to 7.4 million in 2010), Kazakhstan (from 6.2 to 3.8 million people) and Uzbekistan (from 1, 7 to 0.7 million). The number of Russians in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkmenistan has decreased three times, in Armenia 5 times, and in Tajikistan 10 times. In non-CIS countries, the number of ethnic Russians is estimated at 3.2 million, including about one million in the United States (730 thousand Americans named Russian as their native language during the 2000 national census), over 350 thousand in Germany (the overwhelming most of the emigrants from Russia and the USSR to this country are persons of German nationality), etc. The total number of Russians in the world at the present time is 129 million people, over 4/5 of whom live on the territory of Russia (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. Distribution of Russians by nationality in the world in 2010, in%

Over the past 20 years, the number of those for whom Russian is their native language has significantly decreased: from 164.6 million people (1990) to 146.9 million (2010), i.e. by almost 18 million people, including in the Russian Federation itself - by 7.5 million people. Of course, this happened in different ways in Russia itself, in other former republics of the USSR and in the countries of the “far abroad” (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. The number of ethnic Russians, the number of those who consider Russian their native language, and the number of those who spoke Russian in 1990 and 2010 in the world, million people

The total number of those who spoke Russian in the world in 2010 was about 260 million people. This is 52 million less than in 1990 and 18 million less than in 2004. Moreover, over the last period (from 2004 to 2010), the largest decrease in the number of those who spoke Russian in the CIS countries (in general, by 9.2 million people, and primarily in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) and in Eastern European and Balkan countries ( by 5.4 million people, primarily in Poland, Bulgaria and the republics of the former Yugoslavia) (Fig. 3). The number of those who speak Russian also decreased in Asian countries (by more than half a million people, mainly due to a decrease in interest in Russian in Mongolia, Japan, Korea), but at the same time, this indicator remained almost unchanged for the countries of Western Europe and North America, mainly due to the continued emigration to these countries of Russian speakers from Russia and other former Soviet republics. It is expected that by 2015 the number of those who speak Russian (as a native or as a second language, or who know Russian well as a foreign language) will decrease by almost 17 million more. (Table 3).

Figure 3. Those who speak Russian in different countries / regions of the world in 1990–2010, million

Table 3. Russian speakers in various countries / regions of the world in 1990–2015, million people (estimate and forecast)

The current distribution of those who speak Russian and Russians by nationality in each of the former Soviet republics is presented in Table. 4. The leaders in absolute terms are Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

Table 4. Those who speak Russian in the post-Soviet space outside Russia (2009-2012), thousand people

In non-CIS countries, the leading countries in terms of the number of residents who speak Russian are today Poland, Germany and the United States (Table 5).

Table 5. Non-CIS countries with the largest number of people who spoke Russian in 2010

As mentioned above, in terms of the prevalence (in terms of the total number of those who speak it as a native, second, or foreign language), Russian, which ranked 4th in the world in 1990 (after Chinese, English and Spanish), has now moved up to 6th place. It is ahead of English (an estimated 1.5 billion people fluent in it), Chinese (1.4 billion people, including speakers of dialects other than the normative Mandarin), Hindi / Urdu (over 600 million people, including regional dialects) , Spanish (500 million), Arabic (350 million). Until 2020, Russian will outstrip in prevalence ("having moved" to 8th place) and languages ​​such as Bengali and Portuguese (currently they are fluently spoken by about 250 million people), and French ( 220 million people who were fluent in it in 2010), and in the next decade, Russian may even “drop out” from the top ten world languages.

According to such a key (and more definite) indicator as the number of those for whom a particular language is native, Russian, according to foreign experts, is currently in 8th place in the world (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. The number of people who speak the language as a native, million people, 2009. In brackets - the number of countries in which the language is circulated

Compiled by: Ethnologue: Languages ​​of the World. Sixteenth edition. Dallas, 2009. Online version: http://www.ethnologique.com/

In most of the former Soviet republics, Russian has lost its dominant status. Now it is proclaimed state, apart from Russia, only in Belarus (together with the Belarusian one). The official language (used, along with the state language, in various institutions) Russian is recognized in Abkhazia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Transnistria and South Ossetia, the language of interethnic communication - in Moldova, Ukraine (in practice it was the language of a national minority, now in a number of eastern regions recognized as a regional language), Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan (in the last two countries, Russian is actually a foreign language). Russian is a foreign language in all the Baltic countries, as well as in Azerbaijan and Armenia (in fact). From non-CIS countries, the Russian language has the status of a regional or national minority language in Poland, Romania, Croatia and Finland.

The Russian Empire was characterized by a fairly high natural population growth with a high level of both fertility and mortality. In 1913, the population of Russia (taking into account the Vistula region and Finland), according to the Central Statistical Committee of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, was 175 million people.

Population of the USSR

The First World War and the Civil War, according to various estimates, claimed from 8 million to 10 million human lives. If we add here the massive emigration caused by the upheavals of those years, then we can talk about the total losses of 14-16 million people. The 1926 All-Union Population Census of the USSR showed the population of the USSR to be 147 million.

In the 1920s, the birth rate reached its pre-war level.

On January 6, 1937, the second All-Union Population Census was carried out in the USSR. Its preliminary results were given by the population of the USSR as 162 million people. It was carried out in very difficult conditions (in particular, it was the only one-day census in world history), the result was a noticeable underestimation of the population (according to some scientists - up to 2 million people). The results of the 1937 census were classified, and the statistics leading it were repressed. After the purges in the statistical department, the 1939 All-Union Population Census of the USSR was carried out, which showed a much higher population of 170 million people.

In 1940, the territories of Western Belarus, Western Ukraine and the Baltic states with a large population were annexed to the USSR. However, after that, the population of the USSR suffered huge losses during the Great Patriotic War and the post-war famine of 1946-1947.

The next population census was carried out in the USSR only in 1959. The All-Union Population Census of the USSR in 1959 showed the population of the USSR equal to 208.8 million people.

Goskomstat data

Statistical yearbooks "The National Economy of the USSR in ... year" contain statistics on various indicators of the life of the USSR, including the population. The table below provides information on the population of the USSR as of the beginning of the year (in 1913 - at the end of the year).

Population by the republics of the USSR

The statistical yearbook "The National Economy of the USSR for 1990", published by the State Statistics Committee in 1991, contains the following information on the population of the union republics within the USSR (before its collapse):