What is the quietest currency in the forex market. The most predictable currency pairs and their features in trading. Exotic currency pairs

Good day, dear readers of the blog site! We continue to develop the topic of trade on financial market today let's talk about currency pairs Forex.

There are mirror pairs - when there is a clear uptrend on the chart of one instrument, and bears are in power on the chart of another.

Let's use EUR/AUD and AUD/CHF as an example. The specularity is not as pronounced as the symmetry in the screenshot above, but nonetheless.

Euro exchange rate in Australian dollars.

Australian dollar exchange rate in Swiss francs.

Mirroring does not imply absolutely opposite movements, just as symmetry does not guarantee complete coincidence. Because non-overlapping currencies also affect the dynamics of the exchange rate. In the case of AUD/CHF, we see a strong decline on January 15, 2015, because there is a franc in the pair, there is not and cannot be on EUR/AUD.

What happened in January 2015 - we'll talk about this in the final part of the material.

Designation of currency pairs and valuation of the currency

Currency pairs in the trading terminal are displayed in only one format, which has developed historically. There is, for example, a USD/RUB pair, but no RUB/USD. That is, we see the dollar exchange rate expressed in rubles, but we do not know how much the ruble costs if converted into dollars.

How did we get there? Based on the property of proportion.

USD/RUB = 60. The quote reflects the cost of one currency unit. Therefore, 1USD / RUB = 60. How many rubles - you need to determine, therefore, we take rubles for "X". We get proportion.

Multiplying units gives one. To find X, we divide the product by 60, we get 1/60 = 0.01 (6), we round up, we get 0.017.

Let me remind you that in the terminal the rate of each currency pair is indicated with 5 decimal places. There are brokers that provide quotes with an accuracy of 4 decimal places, but they are few. Five characters are needed to determine the value of a whole lot of a particular currency.

Why the five-digit designation appeared, read the article “What is the price”. Let's talk about some more interesting things there, in particular, about Dutch bulbs.

If the GBP/USD rate = 1.30305, then to determine the cost of a standard lot, we multiply this value by 100,000. Because 1 lot is 100,000 currency units. To multiply by one hundred thousand, we move the comma to five digits - $ 130,305 - this is how much the broker will pay for our deal.

How much will we pay? That is, how much money will we deposit? Read if you haven't done it before, otherwise you won't go far. The deposit depends on the leverage - if the leverage is 1:100, we will need 1,303.05 dollars, if it is 1:1,000, 130.305 dollars will be enough.

We will talk about large corrective pullbacks in an article on wave analysis. Let's analyze Ralph Elliott's wave theory there. Take note.

Exotic currencies are used by traders to make money on swaps, we have already talked about this earlier.

Learn all about currency pairs

At first, it is advisable to choose 1-2 currency pairs for trading, gradually increasing the number of instruments. If you are speculating in the medium or long term, it will not be difficult to watch several pairs at the same time.

You need to know everything about the chosen financial instrument. Which countries own the currencies in the pair, what fundamental factors they depend on to a greater and lesser extent, how well they lend themselves to technical analysis. In the process of constant trading, you will find out whether the chosen instrument likes to present surprises, make spontaneous price jumps.

By the way, although currency pairs are traded around the clock, they also go to bed - at different times the price movements of different instruments are not the same in intensity.

Forex is affected stock exchanges, which in different states open and close at the same time. Based on the periods of their work, trading sessions are distinguished.

Here are the names of the sessions, their time intervals in Moscow and the currencies that are traded most intensively in each period. Exchanges are located in different cities, cities are in different time zones. Therefore, sessions begin and end not at a specific moment, but within an hour.

During the American session, currency pairs fluctuate intensively with the US dollar, during the Asian session - with Japanese yen and so on.

Large states in the world economy are like neighbors in apartment building. One country influences another in one way or another.

If you went to bed at night, and the neighbors upstairs are having a party, you can hardly close your eyes. The situation is similar in the financial market. When the Asian session starts and traders speculate on the Japanese yen, the eurodollar cannot sleep well and also reacts with price spikes.

We will talk about the nuances of this kind in a separate article “Forex Trading Sessions”.

We return to the topic. It is especially important to know the spread and swap values ​​for the currency pair, as well as the current volatility. Data on spreads and swaps are indicated on the website of the brokerage firm, in Alpari the section is called “Contract Specifications”.

Look for information on the site only of your broker, since the spread and swap values ​​​​have different companies are different.

Volatility is the amplitude of price fluctuations. To measure daily volatility means to determine the distance between the maximum and minimum price of a financial instrument during the day.

The price of a financial instrument is like a pilgrim on foot. Every day a person on foot will cover a different distance, but a young wanderer, on average, always overcomes a longer distance than an elderly one.

And average speed is also a variable value. The air temperature, the condition of the road, the general well-being of a person will either increase or decrease it.

Similarly, in the Forex trader's toolkit: there are high-volatility and low-volatility pairs. The first are full of strength and are able to overcome long distances, the second move slowly and are in no hurry.

Learning to identify volatility

Let's go to trading terminal Metatrader and open a chart of any currency pair. I will take EUR/CHF - the euro exchange rate expressed in Swiss francs.

To calculate volatility, first select the desired time interval. Let's say we want to collect data for the daily timeframe. The chart looks like this.

Let's move on to the calculations. There are two ways - simple and complex. Let's take each one.

Complicated way to calculate volatility

Each candle on the chart in the D1 timeframe reflects price fluctuations during the day. According to the article, you remember that the Open and Close prices of a candle are the prices at the beginning and end of the trading day, High and Low are the maximum and minimum price values.

We need Hi and Low. It doesn't matter the distance between the halts that the financial instrument made, what matters is its reserve of strength - how much it strayed in total. Therefore, we measure the distance between the maximum and minimum price values.

This is done either by eye with the help of a crosshair, or by the method of accurate calculations.

To use the crosshair, either click CTRL + F or click on the mouse roller. Zoom in on the graph, measure the distance from one shadow to another.

1,902 minipips or 190.2 pips. The first value - by the fifth decimal place, the second - by the fourth. Which one to use doesn't matter. We write down the received value.

Now the method of exact calculations. Move the cursor to the candle to highlight the data. Subtract from the High value the Low value.

1.14481 - 1.12600 = 0.01881. We remove all signs after the decimal point, we get 1,881 minipips - this is the distance passed by the EUR/CHF financial instrument on August 9, 2017. With the crosshairs, we got a value of 1902 - 11 minipips more - not critical.

If you do not know how to get the data we used from candles, read either the above article or watch the video.

We measure the second candlestick with a crosshair - 618 minipips.

The third - 589.

Suppose we are interested in volatility for 3 days. Add up all the obtained values: 1,881 + 618 + 589 = 3,088 minipips. We find the arithmetic mean - we divide the amount by 3: 3 088/3 = 1029, (3) minipips - we got the actual volatility.

How to track its change? Keep a notebook, daily indicate new price values ​​​​and average values ​​\u200b\u200bin it.

At first, your entry will look like this.

In a day you will enter new data. The candle on the chart is still forming, the day has not ended, but let's take its values ​​as an example. The distance traveled is 244 points.

We subtract 618 from the last amount, because this day is already out, it does not interest us. It turns out 2 470. We add the path traveled by the price for today, that is, 244 points. Total - 2,714. Divide by 3, we get 904.7.

How many days to take into account when calculating the actual volatility depends on your trading strategy, the approaches of traders in this regard differ.

In the future, we will get acquainted with indicator methods of analysis; there is no panacea there either. The Moving Average indicator will give different values ​​depending on the number of analyzed days.

That's for 14 days.

Here is for 140.

The larger trends we want to catch, the more days we analyze.

What is the period to take when calculating volatility? Let's analyze the simple method of counting that was taught to me, and then we will answer this question.

An easy way to calculate volatility

Open the hourly chart of the selected financial instrument. Right-click "Properties", go to "General", check the box next to "Show period separators".

Now there are separators on the chart. If we measure the distance between them, we get the mysterious number 24.

The first value displayed by the crosshair is the number of candles in the measured interval. 24 candles, each reflecting fluctuations for 1 hour. This means that a day fits between periods - one trading day of Forex. The foreign exchange market is traded around the clock.

Measuring the distance between the High and Low of each candle on the daily timeframe is tedious. It is easier to cross-link the maximum and minimum prices within the same period.

Ultra-precise calculations are not needed, we measure by eye. The screen above received 1,886 points. Expand the terminal to full screen and measure the volatility of all periods that fit completely, I fit 13 - 14 periods. I learned to trade on historical levels, according to my strategy, volatility data was necessary for their correct imposition, 13-14 days is enough.

Everyone has considered this issue. If something is not clear - write in the comments, I will explain. We will analyze the levels in graphical analysis.

What currency pairs to trade on Forex

Novice traders usually look for signals to enter the market based on technical analytics. Therefore, for a successful start in trading, it is advisable to choose the most technical currency pairs.

These include primarily EUR/USD. The famous Eurodollar is the most liquid and, perhaps, the most predictable Forex instrument.

The EUR/USD chart is great for implementing any trading strategy. Trend movements with rare "surprises" lend themselves well to forecasting both indicator and technical methods of analytics. A small spread is a great opportunity to do scalping.

The Eurodollar is also suitable for news trading, because its rate is affected by events in several EU countries.

Once you get comfortable with EUR/USD, look out for AUD/USD and NZD/USD. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are low volatile financial instruments, their prices do not make sharp jumps like currency charts paired with the pound.

If you want to join long-term trends, the Aussie and the New Zealander will come in handy: it is not dangerous to leave open positions on them for the weekend. However, gaps should not be forgotten.

Start learning Forex with the above three currency pairs, then get acquainted with other tools. Don't go exotic until you've practiced major pairs.

In the article, we learned how to customize the display of quotes. The terminal allows you to view several pairs at the same time, make a large “universal” chart. Read it will be helpful.

There you will also learn how to add new currency pairs to the workspace. But I don't think you have a problem with that.

Before you start trading a new instrument, collect information about it, learn about the “specifics” of each currency.

Keep in mind that information tends to become outdated. USD/CHF is still called a highly technical instrument on some sites, but its technicality has sunk into oblivion on January 15, 2015.

On this day, the Swiss National Bank refused to hold the franc and set the beast free.

Now the currency of Switzerland is not included in the elite of well-predicted.

At the beginning of the article, we talked about mirror currency pairs. A strong depreciation of the Aussie in the AUD/CHF pair is just caused by the described situation.

Conclusion

Dear beginners and professional traders, we have finished talking about currency pairs and considered the most suitable tools for starting Forex trading. Ask your questions in the comments - I will definitely answer.

Are you interested in the patterns of movement of individual currency pairs? If yes, I will prepare separate descriptions of EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and other instruments for you.

Every trader can sometimes become a victim of failure. Losing a deposit is a serious nuisance! And there are many reasons that can lead to losses. In order to prevent a repeated crash, you need to carefully analyze your actions and correct possible mistakes. One of these reasons may be a currency pair that is not suitable for a trader. By replacing the pair, we eliminate the problem, but first we need to study the “nature” of the traded instrument.

Some prefer to trade only the most active currency pairs and get a good income from their volatility. Others choose only calm couples. But even the most quiet and calm couples can change due to the onset of some incredible events or natural disasters. Therefore, we will consider calm the currency pair that moves steadily under normal conditions. Such currency pairs are most suitable for concluding long-term transactions.

The comparison table shows 7 major currency pairs, as well as cross rates and exotic currency pairs:

Below are examples of the most predictable (volatile) Forex currency pairs.

EUR/CHF (Euro/Swiss Franc)

Moves calmly and not abruptly. This makes it possible to control the situation and earn income. Very good for beginners. The pair's calm periods are especially productive, and the spread is about 2 pips. Traders who are fond of scalping most often choose the movement of this pair, due to its minimal mobility. The calmness of this pair can be explained by the fact that both currencies that make up the pair are European. The Eurozone is the main trading partner for Switzerland, so the exchange rate of the franc against the euro is very important for the country. As you study the development of this pair, follow the news of the eurozone and the European Central Bank.

EUR/GBR (Euro/British Pound)

A very stable couple. Its movement can change by only a few points, but this instrument has a very high price of a point, which, with the smallest change, can greatly affect the deposit. This pair is easier to predict for a fall in the course. This currency pair consists of two very popular currencies, which are influenced by similar factors, which sometimes leads to a fall or rise.

Most of all, changes in the quote of the EUR/GBR pair can be affected by changes in energy prices, changes in interest rates of Central banks, the amount of trade, economic growth and unemployment.

Volatility tables

Highly volatile, major Forex pairs:

Low volatility, major Forex pairs:

Highly volatile cross rates:

Low volatility cross rates:

For beginners who have come to the foreign exchange market, in addition to many questions, they are also interested in the following: “What are the best currency pairs to start working on Forex?”. Most analysts recommend GBP/USD for beginner traders, while not taking into account other trading tools, and there are a lot of them.

Of course, in some ways they are really right - when trading on Forex, it is better for beginners not to immediately scatter their own attention to all the existing currency market instruments, but knowing their characteristics is not only necessary, but also important.

The best currency pairs most suitable for beginners, intro

In addition, it should be understood that currency pairs are the individual preference of each of the traders, and their choice depends on a huge number of various factors affecting the market, as well as on the psychology of the beginner. For this reason, each beginner must decide on their own which are the best currency pairs to trade, while taking into account the experience of other traders and their own preferences at the same time.

Trading terminals in the window " Market Review”, as a rule, reflect about 20 trading instruments, and before excluding unnecessary, in your opinion, currency pairs, you need to make sure that the decision is correct.

To choose the best currency pairs, the first step is to determine their main properties and only after that proceed to any specific actions.

Properties of currency pairs in Forex trading

So, what properties do currency pairs have? So volatility is a range price movement over a certain period of time. Sometimes you can find another name for this property - dynamism.

The greater the volatility of the currency, the faster its price will change, which means that you can earn more due to the exchange rate movement. But at the same time, keep in mind that the greater the volatility, the more risky trading is.

The next property that beginners need to know about when choosing currency pairs is their liquidity. In other words, the currencies of this pair must be subject to both supply and demand. Note that and depends on the liquidity of a particular currency pair.

An important role for beginners when choosing currency pairs is played by their predictability. The easier it will be for you to determine what will be the reaction of a particular financial instrument to any events, the higher its predictability will be.
In addition, it is very important to receive all the necessary information on this instrument. As a rule, the most popular in trading have good predictability.

But, and the best currency pairs for learning Forex trading are (according to most experienced traders)– NZD/USD, AUD/USD and XAU/USD.

The reason for this is simple - good predictability (the first two of them will rise in price when the dollar depreciates, and the third one relates to precious metals trading and responds very well to the release of all kinds of news.

If you want to get maximum profit while trading Forex, then use more dynamic currency pairs - EUR/USD, GBR/CHF, GBR/USD, GBR/JPY and USD/CHF. Some of these currency pairs are able to pass at least 200 points in one trading day, which in terms of the volume of 1 lot is at least $2,000.

At the same time, we note right away that when choosing currency pairs for trading, you should not focus your attention only on the most popular of them - experiment, because, as mentioned above, each trader must choose exactly the pair that will at least correspond to his preferences and. And for this you need to know the main characteristics of these trading instruments, which we will discuss below.

Did you know that a Scottish hospital began to treat people suffering from "crypto addiction"?

The best currency pairs for traders - beginners of the Forex market

We also note that the most successful forecasts for this pair of currencies are from American analysts, remember this and listen better to them, and not to others.

There are also other currency pairs with which you can start trading on foreign exchange market We have considered only the best of them.

BE SURE TO SEE:
The best currency pairs for beginners

Often novice traders ask themselves the question: what is the best currency pair to trade? Much depends on the trading strategy, on the time of trading (morning, evening or afternoon), but the most important advice, perhaps, is this: choose the most predictable currency pairs - it will be easiest for you to work with them. We present you the top 5 Forex currency pairs, the behavior of which will not be difficult to predict even for a beginner.

EUR/GBP

This pair behaves quite predictably: clear trends are observed for it, and when a key support or resistance level is broken, the trend reverses in most cases, and you can safely work in the direction of a new trend. Why is this couple considered easy? Because both the pound sterling and the euro are European currencies that are influenced by the same factors. News related to the EU economy often affect the EUR and GBP at the same time. All classical models of graphical analysis can be applied to this pair, indicators also form good signals (there are very few false ones).

USD/CHF

It may not be the most predictable currency pair, but in the last few years its behavior has changed for the better for traders. The fact is that National Bank Switzerland first carried out foreign exchange interventions to regulate the exchange rate of the franc, but later abandoned this policy due to its futility. As a result, the movements of the dollar/franc pair have become more even and understandable, the chart clearly shows side effects and channel breakouts.

AUD/USD

The Australian economy is quite isolated, and as a rule, when it strengthens, it reflects positively on the Aussie rate. That is why this pair responds well to fundamental data, and its behavior can be predicted by working with economic calendar. Professional traders advise using the Aussie/US pair for medium-term and long-term trading, as a chart with a large timeframe lends itself best to analysis. Note also that this pair is most active early in the morning, during the Pacific session: quite strong movements can occur during this period, and the rest of the time the pair behaves very calmly, there are often flats.

GBP/USD

This pair is also very interesting for trading, and this is due to the fact that strong price movements are often observed on it. If you plan to trade the pound/dollar pair, then choose trending strategies, and stop loss and take profit should be set quite far from the opening price of the transaction. It is best to trade this pair inside the channel.

EUR/USD

The list is completed by the most popular and liquid currency pair. She took only the fifth place in the ranking due to the fact that in Last year her behavior became less predictable than usual. Perhaps such changes were related to political events in the United States (presidential elections, trade wars and the conflict with the DPRK). However, this pair is attractive in that it lends itself quite well to both fundamental and technical analysis. This pair is equally suitable for medium-term and for short term trading, she is also very fond of scalpers.

But pairs with the Japanese yen, which is also one of the world's major currencies, are considered difficult to trade. The reason is that the yen is not just a currency, but a so-called safe-haven asset - an investment asset into which large market participants transfer their capital in the event of increased market instability. In addition, the JPY rate is influenced by economic news not only from Japan, but also from the entire Asian region.

The Forex trading community is quite diverse and includes people who practice radically different approaches to trading. Some count on huge profits in a short time and are even ready to put up with significantly increased risks in order to achieve it. Others, on the contrary, prefer stable trading, low risks and stability.

In their strategies, market participants take into account many factors and make a choice in favor of certain assets. For conservative traders, calm currency pairs (quotes) are a priority, and for aggressors, the most volatile ones.

Which pairs (quotes) are the most volatile in Forex?

Thanks to clearly volatile pairs, the prices of which fluctuate significantly, a trader can achieve real income at a relatively short distance, but at the same time collides with more high risks and commission deductions during the trading process.

Below you can see a table with volatile pairs conveniently sorted into three different columns.

• Exotic pairs are the most volatile in Forex. They are not characterized by a large increased liquidity. High rate volatility in this case is due to small (when compared with the main currency instruments).

Because of this, traders run the risk of facing a significant drawback - the low efficiency of technical analysis for these pairs. and commissions also exceed those of other assets, and they may increase over time.

• In second place in terms of volatility are cross-rates. Not all, but only the first eight from the table above. All the assets below already have minimal differences from the main pairs.

When trading cross-rates, you have to take into account a large number of nuances, but with the use of technical analysis methods there will be no problems here.

• The main currency pairs do not have as much volatility as in the case of exotic and , but this disadvantage is compensated by good predictability and relatively lower risks. Accordingly, in practice, a trader can have the same and even higher performance with sufficiently safe trading.

Remarkably, the top four in terms of volatility in the category with major pairs is also the most popular in Forex.

• Separately, it is worth highlighting the category of cryptocurrencies - their volatility is quite high, so a skilled trader can make a significant profit with their help in a short distance. But, as in the case of exotic pairs, everything spoils the instability and difficulty in forecasting. Plus, missing regulation is added to the list of problems.

In order to choose from all of the above the trading asset that suits you, you should decide on your preferences and acceptable degree of risk. There are a lot of factors that need to be studied, so the matter will have to be approached with all responsibility.

The most volatile pairs (quotes) and their specifics

What are the calmest currency pairs on Forex today?

If you prefer stability and reliability, then calm currency pairs are ideal for you - their fluctuations usually do not fall outside a certain small range, which makes this type of trading asset suitable for beginners and market participants practicing long-term trading. Working with low-volatility pairs and following all the rules, it is very difficult to face serious losses in a short distance, which is also good.

The calmest currency pairs are considered mainly those that do not contain the US dollar - since on this moment it is highly volatile and capable of turning around at the most unexpected moment as a financial instrument.

It is appropriate to operate with such assets in aggregate and long term strategies, but it’s not worth it at a short distance - it will simply be unrealistic to achieve good performance.

Consider a few examples of calm pairs in Forex:

• AUD/NZD is a pair with the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Economic situation in these two nearby countries is quite similar, both countries are raw materials and rely on exports.

Accordingly, the same factors almost equally change the exchange rates national currencies. Predictability is high here, and sharp fluctuations are an out of the ordinary event.

• EUR/AUD – the Euro itself is characterized by rather high volatility, but this combination is quite stable and calm. The trader will encounter rare price fluctuations, but predicting them is much easier than if he were trying to parse the most volatile financial instruments. The spread for this pair is limited to five to ten points, which is quite acceptable in this situation.
• AUD/DKK is an exotic pair that is not very popular in Forex. However, given the high spread (up to 30 pips), this is not at all surprising. Nevertheless, the asset has a significant advantage - as soon as a strong trend forms on the market, it stabilizes and can be held for up to 2 weeks.

For example, when important ones are preparing for release, this is often accompanied by an increase in volatility. What to do in such a situation? If you do not plan to use an aggressive strategy, then it makes sense to sit out until the moment when the market reacts to the published news and stabilizes somewhat. Then it is already possible to enter the auction again and earn at moderate risks.

What is important to know about volatile and calm currency pairs in Forex?

Summarizing all of the above, we can say with confidence that each Forex currency pair has its own character. For example, there are the most volatile assets, a wide range of prices for which allows you to significantly increase your initial investments in the short term, and there are calm currency pairs quotations focused on stable income and reduced risks.

As practice shows, each strategy chosen by traders has the right to exist - some may have little with high-risk trading or even suffer losses, while others make good money on stable flat pairs.

Volatility is also often affected by external factors. In addition to the quite obvious restlessness of the entire market in anticipation of the next important economic news, because of which all currencies go crazy, even the timing of trading can shake up volatility. The most calm, it is customary to consider the interval between two and four hours Moscow time. And in general, you should not expect that the selected quote will always be in the same volatility status.

Here, for example, what happened to the chart of the USD/CHF pair, it only took a Swiss bank to change a little interest rate. And this can happen with absolutely any traded asset.