Sell ​​in may and go away what does it mean. Russian financiers are against “sell in May.” Strange purchases of Sberbank

The popular wisdom “sell in May and go away” no longer works in the current market. Western experts interviewed are confidentCNBC. Russian traders agree with their foreign colleagues: you cannot stand aside if the market provides an opportunity to make money regardless of the season.

"I'm not sure what trading strategies"The old trader's almanac that were developed decades ago does not translate to our economy and markets today," David Nelson, chief strategist at Belpointe Asset Management, told CNBC. He noted that he looks for interesting buying opportunities in the market, regardless of the season.

Russian experts are in solidarity with their Western colleagues and are not yet planning to go on summer vacation or go to the cash game. Market participants surveyed do not believe in a correction in the near future, as they see no reason for it. “In my opinion, it makes no sense at all to associate the correction with seasonality. The main threats of drawdown come from the United States if Trump does not fulfill his promises,” said Pavel Goltsblat, head of the sales department at IT Invest.

Mikhail Khanov, managing director of Nord Capital - Quantitative Investments, believes that now the attention of market participants is focused on the actions of the Fed: “Then we have speculation on the topic “how many times and when the Fed will raise the rate in 2017.” This, in my opinion, is much more important than “what and how will Trump do to implement his plans to restart the engine American economy"It is possible that by the end of the year it will be raised 4 times. However, what expectations regarding the American regulator’s monetary policy will be met will not be clear until the summer. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for June.

According to Goltsblat, the remaining external risks associated with Le Pen's victory in the French elections did not materialize. “Despite the fact that there is still one more round of voting left, the markets are already celebrating Macron’s victory, which is actually included in prices. Brexit in England is also following a soft scenario,” the expert added.

The Russian market for both shares and bonds in the current conditions continues to provide opportunities for earning money. “There are 3-6 weeks ahead during which annual dividends will support the stock market...”, notes the head of the analysis department financial markets"KIT Finance Broker" Vasily Koposov.

Goltsblat adds that the yield on individual dividend securities reaches 9%. Among the most interesting promotions Because of dividends, IT Invest singles out Aeroflot, FGC UES, NCSP, QIWI, ALROSA, etc.

In anticipation of further decline key rate Russian bonds remain attractive to the Central Bank, Goltsblat believes. “The ruble bond market is still interesting and retains growth potential. We also recommend considering debt securities that fall under tax breaks on coupons; they also have attractive yields,” agrees Koposov.

However, no one canceled going on summer vacation. If in May experts unanimously advise to keep your finger on the pulse, then in the following months it is better to prepare for a lull.

“I think that at the end of May - beginning of June, before the June Fed meeting, large professional players will take profits at least partially in order to calmly “rest” from speculation in the summer. A correction of 10-15% will only benefit the American market, so we are waiting for the S&P500 index in the region of 2000-2050. Perhaps full-fledged “disappointment” will come in early July, when tax reform Trump still does not have the details approved by law, and the reporting results for the second quarter will be disappointing,” says Khanov.

Here we are, imperceptibly, approaching May. And May is not a very comfortable month for the stock market. And how many different “bugs” there were in this last spring month. It’s not for nothing that there is even a saying “Sell in may and go away.” And the results of yesterday's trading force us to take this saying very seriously. After a seemingly positive market reaction to the decisions of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the market remained fairly calm on Thursday in the first half of the day. Although the indices were in the red zone, they still remained close to zero levels and at some point one could even think that we would again see the typical picture of recent days - a failure at the beginning trading session with a positive outcome at the end. However, somewhere from 19-00 Moscow time everything went awry. The indices slowly but surely went down and continued to decline until the market closed.

Ahead of the rest of the planet, company shares were flying downwards “on a dashing horse” financial sector, which lost an average of 1.2%. Company shares fell almost as sharply technology sector and the service sector (-1.1% and 1.0%, respectively).

And yet, against this rather negative background, there were also pleasant moments. All of them are related to the release of quarterly reports. Of course, in first place is Facebook (NASDAQ:), whose shares, after simply brilliant reporting, immediately soared in price by more than 10%. By the end of the auction, the burden of general sales that swept through the market nevertheless tempered the ardor of buyers. But still, FB shares rose by more than 7% by the end of the day. FORD (F) also distinguished itself. Analysts predicted good reporting for this automotive giant. And so it turned out - +3.15%.

On Thursday, April 28, at the St. Petersburg Exchange, 2,105 transactions were concluded in foreign securities trading for a total amount of about 2.5 million US dollars. The shares of Verizon Communications (VZ) were in greatest demand - 676 ​​transactions, as well as VISA shares(V) - 310 transactions.

In Russia today is the last day before the long 4-day weekend in May. And therefore, everyone who did come to work (and many did not come!) walk around relaxed and carefree. America is trading at full speed today, and after yesterday’s serious fall, we can expect continued developments.

Macroeconomic data on income and expenses individuals are more important than ever. The release of yesterday's data, which showed a low level of GDP growth and the worst decline in business investment since the 2008 crisis, makes all analysts and economists tense. Is everything as good as Janet Yellen described on Wednesday?

Except macroeconomic statistics will be in today large quantities go out and quarterly reports companies. The most interesting and significant reports will appear even before the start of trading from oil giants ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron(NYSE: CVX). Analysts are quite expected to expect a decline in profit and revenue. But how will market participants react to this?

So far, based on the results of the first half of the day, we can say that the background is neutral. On the one hand, oil continues to climb steadily upward. On the other hand, European markets are in a slight minus and are trying to decide on the future direction of movement. At the same time, futures for American indices are still neutral and stand near zero levels. Still, they are unlikely to stay here for long and more significant movements can be expected during the main trading. Purely technically, a further approach to more low levels. At the same time, the nearest support level for the index

The whole truth about the famous belief based on statistical calculations stock market USA! May is already upon us, with the S&P 500 up 13.5% for the year. The risks of a correction are high, but what does the empirical data say?

About May

In fact, May is not as bad as is commonly believed. Consider a sample of the S&P 500 index for the period from 1928 to 2016. The last spring month is located in the weaker half of the whole year. The worst month was September.

During the designated period in May, the S&P 500 closed up 50 times and down 39 times. The median change was +0.6%.

At the same time, the volatility turned out to be dramatic – the standard deviation was 6%. The biggest drop was in 1932 with minus 23% in May, and in 1933 it soared by a record 23% for that month. In general, the risks are high, but statistics do not give clear negative signals.

"Summer period"

If you look further, it turns out that the period from May to October is statistically weaker than the “winter” 6 months: +2% versus +5% for the S&P 500 index. This is the average temperature for the hospital, in fact, the volatility of the indicators is significant. Valuations are more suitable for long-term investors.

If we adjust for the presidential cycle, it turns out that negative 6 months, starting in May, have historically been observed in the 3rd year of the cycle. Let us remember that Donald Trump is only in his first year in power.

Source: HulbertRatings.com

Strategies

S&P Capital IQ analysts presented several seasonally adjusted strategies for the US market. The worst model over the past 15 years, although the least risky, turned out to be the model of investing in the S&P 500 index from November to April and in “cash” in the form of 3-month Treasuries from May to October (+9% per annum on average).

Investing in the S&P 500 all year round the most volatile with an average annual return of 10% per annum. The most profitable investments turned out to be investments in the S&P 500 in the “winter” and shares of producers of essential goods + the healthcare sector in the “summer” (50% consumer staples and 50% health care): +13% per annum.

Source: S&P Capital IQ, S&P and Dow Jones indexes

For reference

Manufacturers of essential goods (Consumer Staples Sector)– protective sector, including companies less dependent on phases economic cycle. Includes manufacturers and distributors of food, beverages, tobacco and personal care products.

XAU/USD:

Last three trading weeks a precious metal is under pressure, however, in my opinion, the downward trend is not complete, and it will only gain momentum. Why? Firstly, FOMC representatives (Dudley and Williams) who spoke last week said that investors were too pessimistic about the latest meetings of the monetary authorities. FED is ready to raise rates even at the June meeting, as it expects strengthening economic growth in the second quarter. Positive releases for April on industrial production, average earnings, retail sales, car and real estate sales clearly confirm this trend. The monetary regulator also expects a drop in the unemployment rate, which traditionally contributes to rising inflation. Thus, to paraphrase a well-known saying, we can say: what is good for the dollar is death for gold. Against this background, during the week you should open Sell positions when quotes rise to the area of ​​1262/1275 and take profits at 1235.

During the week you should open Sell positions for two reasons. Firstly, the growth of the US currency traditionally puts pressure on black gold, since its value is denominated in dollars. The minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, published last week, signal to us that the discount rate may be raised as early as June 15, which will help strengthen the dollar. Secondly, the US Department of Energy on Wednesday, May 18, disappointed investors with weak data on crude oil reserves: reserves increased by 1.3 million barrels. One cannot ignore the report from oil service company Baker Hughes: the number of drilling rigs in the US and Canada has not changed over the past week. This stabilization indicates that current oil price levels are beginning to suit companies. Now the bulls are deprived of this factor to continue the upward trend. However, I do not rule out a possible short-term increase in quotes to the area of ​​last week’s high of $50.13/barrel, where bears can place sell orders. Against this background, during the week you should open Sell positions when quotes rise to the area of ​​49.30/50.80 and take profits at 47.00.

In my opinion, you should sell a contract on the S&P500 if quotes rise in the coming week. The main driver for lower prices is the growing expectation of an increase in the US Federal Reserve interest rate. Two-year Treasury yields, which reflect expectations for monetary policy The FOMC rose by 13 bp last week to its highest level over the past two months. These two instruments traditionally have an inverse correlation and this is not surprising, since the tightening monetary policy negatively affects financial indicators corporations and thereby reduces the attractiveness of investment in the stock market. In this regard, the well-known American stock exchange saying: sell in may and go away becomes even more relevant. Against this background, during the week you should open Sell positions on the growth of quotes in the area of ​​2057/2077 and take profits at the 2021 mark.

May is ready to come into its own, and I want to update for you the version of my old article dedicated to the saying “ Sell ​​in May and go away!"("Sell in May and go for a walk"). In 2012, it was already published on the Internet, but it’s time to add new data.

RTS Index in May: the language of statistics

Due to the fact that the saying does not specify exactly when to sell shares in May - at the beginning or at the end of the month, and perhaps it is only true for those who miraculously grabbed luck by the tail and sold securities at the maximum prices of the end of spring, I will consider everything these three options are an example.

Let's consider what an investor will gain if he sells all shares at the beginning or end of May and, if he is lucky, locks in financial results at the peak of the month, and then will return to the market only in September. You can rightly note that you still need to be able to predict peaks, and this gift is given to rare lucky ones. But experienced traders do not strive for this; they it’s enough to catch the golden mean.

According to the data presented in Table 1, if you sell in May and leave before the first working day of September, then you could buy shares cheaper in the fall (that is, the saying is confirmed):

on sale in early May in 9 cases out of 18 (on average, in the years when the index quotes fell, the deviation was 18.78%; in 9 cases when the quotes rose, the increase was 24.2%);

when selling at maximum prices in May(peaks must also be correctly predicted) in 12 out of 18 cases (on average, in years when index quotes fell, the deviation was 16.55%; in 6 cases when quotes rose, the increase was 14.65%);

on sale at the end of May in 6 out of 18 (on average, in years when index quotes fell, the deviation was 21.63%; in 12 cases when they rose, the increase was 14%).

Grandma said in two

So, dear friends, if at the beginning of May you sell shares included in RTS index, then the chances that you will buy them cheaper in September are 50/50. But at the same time, if there is growth, it will on average be stronger than the fall. It turns out that if you sell shares at the end of May, then your chance of buying back shares in September is 1 in 2 cheaper, however, if the securities fall over the summer, then compared to the close of May, this may be a more significant movement than the summer growth. The saying “Sell in May and go away!” It’s worth trusting that if you have a magic ball that can help you predict the May high, then your probability of buying securities in September will increase to 2 to 1. The profit is small to spend on magical attributes!

This analysis is based on facts. It should be used in conjunction with other methods of market analysis to make a trading decision. Clients who receive personal support can order similar research for specific promotions. Tune in and don't miss the bright movements of late spring and early summer!