The fall in GDP justified all forecasts. What is the essence of the physical volume index?

GDP is calculated both in actual (current) prices and in constant (comparable) prices. One of most important tasks statistics is the recalculation of the GDP indicator and its components from actual (current) to constant (comparable) prices. This is due to the fact that changes in the volume of GDP in actual prices are influenced not only by changes in the quantity of goods and services produced or used, but also by changes in prices for goods and services.

To calculate GDP at constant prices, the following general revaluation methods exist:

1m deflation method, which is based on the use of price indices (the Laspeyres formula is most often used, where data from the base period is used as weights);

2) m double deflation method- the method of sequential deflation of first output, then intermediate consumption, while value added in constant prices is assessed as the difference between output and intermediate consumption determined in constant prices;

The essence of the deflation method is that when calculating the volume of production of the current period in constant prices, they use GDP deflator index , which is calculated by correlating the volumes of GDP of a given period, respectively, in current and constant prices (5.7):

Where - the volume of GDP of the current period in actual prices.

Then, to calculate the volume of production of the current period in constant prices, the volume of produced or consumed products of the current period in actual prices is divided by the corresponding price deflator index.

3m extrapolation method, based on the use of physical volume indices, is used in the absence of information on prices, but there is data on changes in the volume of output or services provided;

GDP physical volume index is an indicator that represents the ratio of GDP volumes of the current and previous periods, expressed in the same constant prices (5.8):

(5.8)

Where - GDP volume of the base period in constant prices; - the volume of GDP of the current period in constant prices (real GDP).

The base period's output at constant prices is then multiplied by the physical volume index to obtain an estimate of the current period's output at constant prices.

Note 1

The international standard SNA-1993 recommends calculating the physical volume index using the Fisher formula, and the Laspeyres formula is considered an acceptable alternative.

4) direct revaluation method implies that indicators in constant prices are calculated by multiplying the quantity of products produced (or used) in the reporting period by the corresponding prices of the base period; this method is currently used mainly to assess the production and use of agricultural products;

5) method of revaluation by cost elements used to convert the cost of non-market services into constant prices; non-market services, the value of which at current prices is determined by the amount of current costs representing units, including consumption of fixed capital, are usually valued at constant prices by revaluing cost elements using deflation; You can also use the extrapolation method using an index of the physical volume of services (for individual services) or an index of the number of employees in institutions providing services (for collective services), etc.

Under international comparisons refers to the method of statistical study used to calculate the ratio of indicators of the level and dynamics of socio-economic development of countries. Currently, to carry out international comparisons of macroeconomic indicators, it is used index method based on representative goods.

Key indicators calculated within the framework of international comparisons are:

1) indices of physical volume of GDP and primary groups or main components– the ratio of the GDP (or group) of the comparable country to the GDP (or group) of the base country (group of countries); used to compare the scale of national economies of countries;

2) indices of physical volume per capita– the ratio of GDP per capita of the compared country to the indicators of the base country;

3) purchasing power parities (PPP);

4) comparable price level– the ratio of PPP to the exchange rate.

Note 2

PPPs calculated using Fisher's formula usually do not satisfy the requirements transitivity , where direct pairwise comparisons of PPPs should produce the same results as indirect comparisons through third countries. Therefore, for multilateral comparisons, other formulas are used, mainly ECS formula(by the names of the creators - Eltete, Keves, Schultz). The PPP between any two countries, calculated using the ECS formula, is the geometric mean of the direct PPP (using the Fisher formula) between these two countries and all possible indirect PPPs (using the Fisher formula) for the same pair of countries. At the same time, the weight of direct PPP double compared to the weight of the indirect PPP.

Topic 12. Statistics of macroeconomic calculations. system of national accounts

Concept and structure of the System of National Accounts (SNA)

System of National Accounts can be defined as a system for calculating macroeconomic indicators, presented in the form of a certain set of interconnected accounts, classifications and balance sheets.

The SNA was created more than 50 years ago in countries with the most developed market economies to analyze its structure, institutions and functioning mechanisms at the macroeconomic level. The term “national accounting” itself was proposed by the Dutch economist W. Cliff.

IN former USSR to describe and analyze macroeconomics, a different system of indicators was used - balance of national economy (BNH), intended primarily to analyze an economic model based on public ownership and central planning. Transition to market economy caused the need for a transition from the BNK to the system of national accounts throughout the former USSR (in the Russian Federation, the transition to the SNA was carried out in 1993).

SNA is a modern Information system, which ensures the receipt of interrelated information on macroeconomic indicators by government bodies for the formation of socio-economic policy and regulation of the economy as a whole. In order for the SNA to be effective and contribute to the identification of macroeconomic patterns and relationships, a number of important provisions are observed in world practice.

Firstly, the SNA uses a broader interpretation of economic production (in the BNK, only material production was included in the sphere of economic production).

According to the SNA methodology, economic production includes all types of activities producing goods and services:

production of goods, including goods for own consumption, except for services provided by housewives for cooking, cleaning, raising children;

production of market services for sale;

activities of financial intermediaries (banks, investment funds, insurance companies);

production of non-market services by public administration institutions (legislative and executive power, defense, health services, education, etc.);

provision of non-market services by non-profit organizations serving households;

provision of services by hired servants (cooks, drivers, gardeners);

provision of services by homeowners for their own consumption;

activities aimed at protecting the environment.

The second important point of the SNA methodology concerns the content of such a category as income (the concept was developed by the English economist J. Hicks), according to which income represents maximum amount money, which is spent on consumer goods and services you do not reduce your accumulated wealth, do not accept any financial obligations, i.e. don't become poorer.

The third provision concerns the reduction of many economic entities into five relatively homogeneous groups, for which a standard set of accounts is provided in which economic transactions related to education, production, distribution, redistribution of income, accumulation and savings, acquisition financial assets and accepting financial obligations.

Since 1993, the following five sectors have been considered such sectors, each of which can include economic entities in accordance with their function in the economic process:

non-financial corporations and quasi-corporations(function of production of goods and not financial services);

financial corporations and quasi-corporations(function of accumulating free financial resources and providing them under certain conditions to investors);

public administration (redistribution function national income and wealth, provision free services);

households(function of purchasing goods and services on the market, providing labor);

non-profit organizations, serving households(social, political, religious organizations whose function is to provide free services to members of these organizations).

In addition to analyzing the information contained in sectoral accounts, an analysis of the relationship between them in the economic process is carried out. And finally, important accounts (production account and income generation account) are compiled in the SNA and for individual sectors of the economy (industry, Agriculture, construction, etc.).

Thus, on the basis of sectoral accounts, accounts for economic sectors are compiled macroeconomic calculations.

The purpose of macroeconomic calculations within the framework of the SNA is a description of general indicators of the main economic flows for a certain period, the formation and interconnection of which constitute the essence of the structure of the SNA.

Under economic flows refers to the creation, transformation, exchange, transfer of value. Economic flows can lead to changes in the volume, composition, value of assets and liabilities of so-called institutional units, which are legal or individuals, organizations and institutions that have the opportunity and right to carry out operations in the process of production, distribution, redistribution and use of income, a set of accounts or the ability to compile them.

Economic flows by mutual agreement in the SNA system are called economic transactions. Economic transactions are carried out with compensation in the form counter flows(in return for the provided goods, services, labor or assets, compensation is provided, again in the form of goods, services, etc.). If economic transactions are carried out without compensation (payment of pensions, scholarships, humanitarian aid, etc.), then such economic transactions are called transfers.

The basis of the SNA structure is accounts and balance sheets.

The account reflects the transactions, assets or liabilities of business units, is a two-sided table, where equality between amounts is achieved using balancing item, which is a macroeconomic indicator. Balancing items make it possible to move from one account to another and link accounts into unified system. In the structures of the SNA, the following groups of accounts are distinguished, which are developed in current prices.

Account group domestic economy generally:

account of production of goods and services;

income generation account;

income distribution account:

a) primary income distribution account;

b) secondary distribution of income account;

national disposable income account;

accumulation account (capital account).

Group of accounts of economic sectors:

production account by industry;

income generation account by industry.

Account group foreign economic relations ("the rest of the world"):

current account;

capital expenditure account;

financial account.

Based on an interconnected system of indicators, combined into accounts and compiled in a certain sequence, it is possible to obtain an interconnected, comprehensive quantitative characteristic of economic processes as a whole, i.e. get the so called consolidated accounts.

System of indicators and general principles building SNA

The system is a set of indicators that are interrelated, complement each other and are calculated on the basis of common methodological principles. This system of indicators is the most important macroeconomic indicators (aggregates) used in the SNA:

When compiling national accounts, it is necessary to adhere to generally accepted principles, among which the following can be highlighted.

(principle accounting) - each operation in the SNA is reflected twice: in the “Use” section of the previous account and in the “Resources” section of the subsequent account. Additional control is ensured by the fact that each item in one account has a corresponding item in another account, which contributes to the linking of accounts.

Corresponding to the sequence of the reproduction cycle (production, education of income, distribution of income, use of income).

Balance principle(registration of all economic flows in the form of balance sheets).

Where we are talking about the fact that balancing items are primarily calculation categories intended not only to ensure a balance between the volume of resources and their use, but also to characterize the results of one or another economic process, which allows us to consider them the most important macroeconomic indicators.

“T”: All accounts consist of two sections (columns), the right one includes “Resources”, and the left one includes “Usage”.

For the SNA, it is very important that each account has its own balancing item, which is presented in Table 1 for clarity. 12.1.

Table 12.1

Table of accounts and balancing items

Table 12.2

Main summary accounts

From the table 12.2 shows that national accounts are actually being built:

1) in a certain sequence of the reproductive cycle;

2) have a “T” shape;

3) each item of one account has a corresponding item in another account;

4) the principle of double entry is observed;

5) in general, the SNA is considered as a balance method;

6) there is a quantitative connection between the most important indicators.

Methods for calculating GDP and income indicators

Gross domestic product and gross national income are the most important indicators macroeconomic statistics, since these indicators reflect the final results economic activity throughout the country as a whole and play a large role in the system of national accounts.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)- is the central indicator of the SNA, an indicator of industrial domestic product produced by residents of a country over a certain period of time. It is calculated in market prices of final consumption, i.e. at prices paid by the buyer, including taxes on products and all trade and transport margins. GDP is used to characterize the level economic development, pace economic growth etc.

The indicator of the level of GDP per capita is used to compare the levels of well-being of countries, to establish the size of the country’s contributions to the budgets of international organizations, to resolve issues of providing various types assistance to countries.

A summary indicator of income at the macro level is gross national income (GNI), which is the amount of primary income received by residents of a given country for a certain period as a result of their participation in creation of GDP. In quantitative terms, GNI differs from GDP in the balance of primary income coming from abroad or transferred abroad.

There are three main methods for statistically assessing GDP and income income: production, distribution and end-use method, i.e. GDP can be considered at the production stage, at the stage of income generation and at the stage of use of income.

Production method

GDP at the production stage characterizes the measurement of the value created in the production process over a certain period of time by residents of a given country. At the core this method GDP calculations are based on the following indicators: output of goods and services (B); intermediate consumption (IC) and gross value added (GVA).

Output (B) represents the value of all goods and services produced in the current period, which is usually calculated in the SNA in basic prices. The cost of goods produced includes the cost of goods and services used in the production process. If it is necessary to obtain newly created value in the production process in the current period, intermediate consumption (IC) is subtracted from the output of goods and services.

Under intermediate consumption refers to the cost of goods and services that are completely consumed or transformed in a given period in the process of producing other goods and services. Intermediate consumption includes material costs(raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, material services, Construction Materials, purchase of food, etc.), payment for intangible services (payment for research and design work, financial services, costs of personnel training, payment legal services, audit, advertising expenses, rental payments, etc.), business travel expenses, other elements of intermediate consumption.

Intermediate consumption does not include consumption of fixed capital, as well as expenses not directly related to the production of goods and services. PP is assessed at the time the relevant goods and services enter production at market prices.

The difference between the output of goods and services (B) and intermediate consumption (IC) is called gross value added (GVA):

(12.1)

To calculate GDP at market prices, gross value added is increased by the amount of taxes on products and imports and decreased by the amount of subsidies on products and imports:

GDP = GVA + Taxes on products and imports - Subsidies on products and imports. (12.2)

For determining national income(ND) GDP should be reduced by the consumption of fixed assets (depreciation) and increased by the balance of primary income from abroad:

ND = GDP - Consumption of fixed assets (depreciation) + Balance of primary income receipts from abroad (12.3)

Distribution method

This method of calculating GDP is considered in the process of generating income (by source of income). At the stage of income generation, GDP is calculated as the sum of primary incomes, which are subject to distribution among direct participants in the production process. These incomes are included in the value added of the current period created in the production process.

TO primary income include the following:

wages of employees ( wage+ employer contributions for social needs);

taxes on production and imports (mandatory gratuitous non-refundable payments);

subsidies for production and imports (current gratuitous non-refundable payments provided by the government);

gross profit and gross mixed income (the part of gross value added that remains with producers after subtracting expenses associated with paying employees and paying taxes on production and imports).

The distribution method of calculating GDP is used primarily to analyze its cost structure. If we add to GDP the primary income received from the rest of the world and subtract the primary income transferred to the rest of the world, the result is the country's gross national income (GNI) at market prices.

End use method

At the stage of using income, GDP is calculated using the final use method, where it is the sum of residents’ expenditures on final consumption of goods and services, gross capital formation and the balance of exports-imports and services. actual final consumption refers to the cost of goods and services actually consumed, regardless of any sources of financing. It includes:

actual final consumption of households;

actual final consumption of government agencies.

In addition to final consumption expenditure, the most important component of the final use of GDP is gross capital formation.

Gross accumulation includes:

gross formation of fixed capital (investment of funds by resident units in objects of fixed capital in order to obtain benefits, which is expressed in an increase in the value of fixed capital);

increase in material reserves working capital(increase in stocks of raw materials and supplies, finished products, work in progress, goods for resale, state material reserves).

Balance of export-import and services covers export-import operations of a given country with all other countries and represents the difference between exports and imports of goods and services in domestic prices.

So, GDP when calculated using the final use method is equal to

GDP = Final consumption + Gross capital formation + Balance of exports-imports and services. (12.4)

When calculating national income (NI) using the final use method, consumption of fixed assets is subtracted from GDP and the balance of primary income receipts from abroad is added:

Double deflation method(method of sequential deflation of first output, then intermediate consumption, while value added in constant prices is assessed as the difference between output and intermediate consumption determined in constant prices).

The essence of the deflation method is that when calculating the volume of output of the current period in constant prices, the GDP deflator index is used, which is calculated by correlating the volume of GDP of a given period, respectively, in current and constant prices:

(12.6)

Where - the volume of GDP of the current period in actual prices.

Then, to calculate the volume of production of the current period in constant prices, the volume of produced or consumed products of the current period in actual prices is divided by the corresponding price deflator index.

Extrapolation method, based on the use of physical volume indices, is used in the absence of information on prices, but there is data on changes in the volume of output or services provided.

According to the first estimate of GDP presented by Rosstat, the reduction Russian economy in the past year coincided with both the forecasts of independent experts and with later estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development.

Volume Russia's GDP for 2015, according to the first estimate of Rosstat, amounted to 80,412.5 billion rubles in current prices. The physical volume of GDP decreased by 3.7% compared to 2014. The GDP deflator index for 2015 relative to 2014 prices was 107.3%. For those who may have been surprised by the size of the deflator compared to last year's inflation, it is useful to explain from the statistics agency that its value was influenced by a decrease average rate export duty on energy resources.

In December 2015, Rosstat carried out the third assessment of GDP for 2014. And it is important to remind you that the data for 2014 and 2015 include changes related to the introduction of international assessment methodology housing services, produced and consumed by homeowners; provisions of the System of National Accounts 2008 regarding the accounting of results scientific research and developments and weapons systems, as well as assessing the consumption of fixed capital based on its current market value.

Let us recall that last summer two consensus forecasts of independent experts - from Interfax and from the HSE Development Center - predicted a contraction of 3.7% for the domestic economy at the end of 2015. At that time, the Ministry of Economic Development hoped that the decline in GDP in the now past year would be 2.6-2.8%. But in November, the head of the economic department, Alexey Ulyukaev, predicted economic recession by 3.7%. Thus, Rosstat’s calculations met everyone’s expectations.

The table shows how the economy performed by type of economic activity. It should be noted that the largest drop in gross value added in 2015 (-10.1%) was shown by trade, which in the “fat years” became the leader in terms of “weight” in the economy.

Agriculture, on the contrary, was pleased with the acceleration of the growth of added value (3.5% versus 2.2% in 2014). Russian farmers are benefiting from Russia's retaliatory trade sanctions against the European Union, RIA Novosti cites the conclusion of Christian Science Monitor correspondent Fred Ware, who spoke with some of them. But it is not only farmers who benefit in the countryside, and not only because of the retaliatory food embargo - the strong investments of past years in large-scale agricultural production are giving a return.

According to Rosstat data on the dynamics of elements of the use of GDP in constant prices, in 2015, final consumption expenditures decreased by 7.9% year-on-year (+1.4% in 2014), household expenditures - by 10.1% ( +1.7%, respectively), public administration - by 1.8% (+0.4%). Spending by nonprofit organizations serving households increased by 1.8% (-0.2% in 2014). Gross formation fell by 18.3% (-6.1% in 2014), gross fixed capital formation - by 7.6% (-0.6%, respectively). For exports, the increase was 3.1% (+0.3%), for imports - a decrease of 25.6% (-5.9%).

IN GDP structure by sources of income in current market prices, wages of employees (including wages and mixed incomes not observable by direct statistical methods) amounted to 36,547.4 billion rubles in 2015, and the share in GDP was 45.5% (44.8 % in 2014); net taxes on production and imports - 8819.5 billion rubles. and 11% (14.1%); gross profit of the economy and gross mixed income - 35045.6 billion rubles. and 43.5% (41.1%).

Index of physical volume of GDP and gross value added by type of economic activity, in constant prices, % of the previous year

6 index of physical volume of retail trade turnover

7 physical volume index

8 physical volume index

index of actual volume, volume index

9 physical volume indicators

10 index physical health

11 physical volume index

12 index of physical volume of production

13 physical volume index industrial production

14 physical volume index retail

15 physical volume indicator

16 index

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EN

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A coded pulse sequence recorded on a servo surface of the form:

where d means: for a servo zone - a pair of dibits, for protective zones - a single dibit;

o - means: for a servo zone - a missing pair of dibits, for protective zones - a missing single dibit.

The index indicates the starting point of this track

17 index

index pl. indices, indexes