Demographic aging of the population. Age composition of the population Youngest population

"Old" and "young" regions of Russia

The 2002 census showed that the age and sex composition of the population of the regions of Russia differs quite significantly. Suffice it to say that the average age of the population in the five "youngest" regions of Russia is at least 10 years lower than in the five "oldest" regions. And the sex ratio ranges from 813 men per 1000 women in the Ivanovo region to 1110 men per 1000 women in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug.

In fig. 17 shows several typical age pyramids of the population of the regions.

Figure 17. Age-sex pyramids of some regions of Russia according to the 2002 census

A distinctive feature of the age-sex pyramid of the Republic of Dagestan is the preservation of a fairly clearly expressed traditional triangular shape up to the age of 18 years. This is a consequence of the high birth rate that persisted here for a long time, until the end of the 1980s.

The features of the pyramids of the other three regions are not so obvious. The pyramid of the Magadan region is distinguished by a very small share of the elderly in the population, and the Tula region, on the contrary, has a high share of the elderly, especially women. The Moscow pyramid occupies an average position in this sense, but it has two more features: intensive migration has smoothed out to a large extent the gaps in middle ages characteristic of the Russian population as a whole, at the same time, the base of the pyramid is noticeably narrower than in all three other regions.

The differences between the federal districts are somewhat less than between the subjects of the federation, but they are also quite significant (Table 5).

Table 5. Average age of people living and the ratio of the number of sexes according to the data of the Russian censuses of 1989 and 2002 in the context of federal districts

The data on average age presented in the table speak for themselves. The oldest population is in the Central Federal District, the youngest is in the Far Eastern and Southern Districts. The urban population is somewhat younger than the rural population, mainly due to the migration of young people to cities.

The average age of people living is lower in those regions where the natural population growth was higher in 1989-2002. The relationship between change in average age and natural increase is less. The fact is that the regions, where in 1989-2002 the natural increase was not as low as in most other regions of Russia, were distinguished by a fairly high natural increase even before 1989. As a consequence, these regions had a younger age structure of the population.

Figure 18. Average age of the population of the subjects of the Federation according to the 2002 census (years)
Increase

Figure 19. Change in the average age of the population of the subjects of the federation between the censuses of 1989 and 2002 (years)
Increase

As a result of long-term trends and market changes in demographic processes, including the dynamics of external and internal migration, population aging is most pronounced among rural women (Table 5). With the average Russian share of women aged 65 and over in the female population equal to 16%, the share of women aged 65 and over in the total number of rural women in the Pskov region is 33%, in Ryazan - 32%, in Tver, Novgorod and Kursk regions - about 30%, i.e. it can be said that almost every third woman in the village is an elderly woman.

1 - All maps are built according to the same principle. The boundaries of the middle group are the mean of the distribution plus, minus 1/4 of the standard deviation. The boundaries of the second and fourth groups differ from the average group by 1/2 standard deviation.

The average age of the population in the youngest regions of Russia is almost 15 years lower than where older people predominate.

For the first time in Russia, a demographic sheet has been compiled (available in the "RG"). Here are statistics on population, birth and death rates. Also, a forecast for the next 19 years has been drawn up, taking into account which it is possible to plan the economic and social policy in the country.

It turned out that the oldest population today lives in the Central Federal District. The calculation was made in accordance with the so-called median age - it divides the entire population into two equal parts: one is younger than the median, the other is older than it. And it turned out that the median age of residents of the Tambov region is 43 years. And this is the most "adult" indicator in the country. For comparison: the median of the "youngest" Chechnya is only 25.5 years.

In regions with a shortage of residents, it is necessary to create jobs and give tax incentives to local businesses

Why are there few old people in the Caucasus, after all, on the contrary, in accordance with the traditions of Caucasian longevity, they should be there? These figures are not at all connected with low or high life expectancy, explains Sergey Shulgin, deputy head of the International Laboratory of Demography and Human Capital of the RANEPA. He is one of the authors of the demographic sheet, compiled with the participation of Rosstat.

“Together with Chechnya, two more Caucasian regions were included in the list of the“ youngest ”- Ingushetia (27.7 years) and Dagestan (29.5 years). This is not surprising. The Caucasus has a high birth rate for many years. Tyva. Here the median age of the population is also 28 years. True, for a different reason. Local men die at about the age of 58. And mainly because of drunkenness, "the expert says.

According to the scientist, Russia is literally swinging "on a swing." If now the median age of the average resident of our country hovers around 39 years old, then by 2035 the median will pass through the 44-year mark. That is, Russia is aging faster than it is rejuvenating. And this is what will determine the demographic development of the country in the coming years.

The difference in life expectancy across regions is also huge. There are places where people live as long as in Western Europe - 77-80 years. This is Moscow, where women can easily live up to 80 years old, and men - up to 73 years old. The overall life expectancy in Chukotka is, on average, ten years less. Of course, here you can blame everything on the harsh climate. But in Norway, as the expert notes, winters are also cold, and summers are short, but people end their lives well over 80.

Nevertheless, the demographic scenario for 2035 is still quite optimistic. In absolute terms, the number of Russians will remain approximately at the current level - 146 million people. Movements will only take place within specific territories.

Economically prosperous cities will continue to grow in new residents, disadvantaged cities, respectively, on the contrary. "On the one hand, now a small generation of" dashing "90s has entered active reproductive age. Therefore, the total number of births in the next ten years will fall. But then women from the generation of the 2000s will start giving birth to children. increased due to support by maternity capital. They should balance the demographic situation in the country, "continues Sergei Shulgin.

And yet, it is still impossible to speak with confidence about the stability of this trend. For the forecast to come true, it is necessary to improve the quality of life, the level of medical care for citizens, to cope with smoking and excessive enthusiasm for the "green snake".

According to Rospotrebnadzor, about half a million Russians die from alcohol abuse every year. Earlier, the department reported that the number of deaths caused by drinking alcoholic beverages dropped by a quarter over the past seven years. "If all the achievements in the fight against alcohol mortality for some reason are brought to naught, Russia will face a sharp depopulation," the RANEPA representative is sure.

For a baby boom to happen, according to Shulgin, a number of measures need to be taken to make maternity capital work even more actively.

“Now most families use matkapital to improve their living conditions. This tool has shown itself especially effectively in the poor regions of the country and among rural residents. That is, where you can buy a new apartment or house inexpensively with the help of state support.

Now it is necessary for the capital to work more actively in large cities and rich regions, where squares are more expensive and, therefore, it is more difficult to buy an apartment, "the expert says.

Scientists suggest turning to the experience of France, where the state partially subsidizes babysitting services so that a young mother can safely return to work a year after the birth of her baby.

"Matkapital is a one-time and therefore a more significant burden on the budget. Surcharge for a nanny in this sense is less expensive and, perhaps, no less effective measure of family support," says Sergei Shulgin, adding that now there is an opportunity to conduct a similar experiment with nannies in Dalniy East and already at the regional level to look at its effectiveness.

Problem

Where is thick and where is empty

Leonty Byzov, Senior Researcher, Institute of Sociology, Russian Academy of Sciences:

The population size in Russia has indeed stabilized at about the same level today, but this stability consists of a number of contradictions. If we make a breakdown by specific regions, then in some it is decreasing, in others it is profit. For example, the population of the North Caucasus and a number of other southern regions is growing sharply, while the number of residents in the center of the country continues to decline. Megacities with adjoining territories are growing, but at the same time there are more and more "holes" in the countryside and small towns throughout the country. On the other hand, one cannot go to an increase in the number of Russians at any cost, regardless of what kind of people they are and where they live. In some regions, there is a clear overpopulation, as in Moscow and the Moscow region. Therefore, the task of the authorities, from my point of view, is to identify regions where there is a shortage of residents, and purposefully fight in order to create jobs there, provide tax incentives to local businesses, in general, make people's lives more attractive. But there is no need to spread this aid all over the country. Otherwise, the imbalance will persist.

TEXT. Infographics: Alexander Smirnov / Nina Egorsheva / RG

Demographic load indicators.

Age and sex pyramids

When studying the age and sex composition of the population, a graphical method is widely used.

Age and sex pyramid - a two-sided bar chart of the age and sex composition of the population.

Age groups are marked on the ordinate, and the population is marked on the abscissa, with the number of men to the left of the ordinate and the number of women on the right.

In cases of comparison of pyramids with each other, the population size in groups should be measured by the relative values ​​of the structure (in%).

Age, years

Thousand. human

Age, years

Thousand. human

Figure 3.1. Age and sex composition of the population of the Russian Federation according to population censuses

Analyzing the structure of the age and sex pyramid, attention is paid to its configuration.

Depending on the ratio of fertility and mortality, there are three main types of age and sex structures :

1. Primitive (extensive) type - characterized by high fertility and high mortality.

2. Stationary type - characterized by low fertility and low mortality.

3. Regressive (depopulation) type - characterized by low fertility and high mortality.

Rice. 3.2. Types of age and sex structures

In reality, there are no strict types of age and sex structures. Usually the sides of the pyramids have depressions and ledges. The depression in the pyramid indicates the small number of this age group. The protrusion characterizes a large group. On the pyramid, you can trace the relationship between the small, as well as - between the numerous groups. If a generation is born with a small number (for example, due to a war or during an economic crisis), then, having reached reproductive age (after 25-30 years), it will itself also create a small group, and vice versa. Such an alternation of small and numerous age groups of the population (depressions and protrusions on the pyramid), repeated every 25-30 years and gradually fading by the end of the studied century, is called "demographic waves".

The developed countries are characterized by the process of demographic aging.

Demographic aging - an increase over the years in the proportion of the elderly population in the total population.

Reasons for demographic aging:

1. Decrease in fertility.

2. Decrease in mortality in older age groups associated with an increase in average life expectancy.

3. Migration, if the young population leaves for any reason (for example, in the event of an economic crisis amid rising unemployment).

To measure population aging, use is made of demographic aging indicator - the proportion of the population aged 60 years and older (according to UN criteria - 65 years and older) in the total population.

To assess the level of old age of the population, demographic aging scales are used. In Russia, where age 60 and older is taken as a criterion, they use scale by J. Bojeux-Garnier-E. Rosset (see table 3.2).

Table 3.2

Scale of demographic aging by J. Bojeux-Garnier-E. Rosset

YOUNG POPULATION, generalized characteristics of the age structure of us., In a cut large beats. weight is taken by children and acc. the proportion of elderly and old people is small. According to the classification of UN demographers, M. n. it is considered us., in which persons aged 65 and over make up less than 4%. Int. interconnections of reproduction of us M. of n. - a consequence of the persistence of high levels of fertility and mortality, and the configuration of the age pyramid has a wide base and a narrowed top. For M. n. high growth rates of us are characteristic.

• - "... young wine - natural dry, obtained according to the generally accepted technology from individual grape varieties or mixtures thereof, sold from January 1 of the next year; ..." Source: Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of 09.03 ...

  Official terminology

• - "... Young beer: beer obtained from the main fermentation of beer wort ..." Source: "Brewing products. Terms and definitions ...

  Official terminology

• - Wed How big have grown! How long have they come here with a nanny, and now they are high school students! The old grows old, and the young grows ... Ant. P. Chekhov. Name day. 2. See it grows young and grows old ...
• - Young wine in old mukhi. Wed Young wine is not poured into old trees. Matѳ. 9, 17. See Old leaven. See Half measures do not lead to anything at all ...
• - kids. young growth. juveniles. | first years. three-year-olds. fry. little girl. | underyearlings. chick. Chick. | puffs. gilt. young. little animal. little animal. | piglet. sucker. sucker. | puppy. kutenok. little dog. calf. upskirt ...

  Ideographic Dictionary of the Russian Language

• - Wed Do not pour young wine into old wineskins. Matt. 9, 17. See old leaven. See half measures lead nowhere ...

  Explanatory phraseological dictionary of Michelson

• - The old grows old, but the young grows. Wed What a lot have grown! How long have they been here as a nanny, and now they are high school students! The old grows old, and the young grows ... Ant. P. Chekhov. Name day. 2 ...

  Michelson's Explanatory Phraseological Dictionary (original orph.)

• - Young Indian summer from 15 to 29 August ...
• - Young and crooked, old and double ...

  IN AND. Dahl. Russian proverbs

• - see Young kvass - and he plays ...

  IN AND. Dahl. Russian proverbs

• - See FORMER -...

  IN AND. Dahl. Russian proverbs

• - Simple. About what is characteristic of a person in his youth. FSS, 57 ...
• - 1. Volog., Kar., Yarosl. Sour milk, sour milk. SVG 4, 89; SRGK 3, 251; YaOS 6, 54. 2. Kar. Fresh milk. SRGK 3, 251 ...

  A large dictionary of Russian sayings

• - noun, number of synonyms: 8 youth youngsters young generation young young people growing tribe rising generation youth ...

  Synonym dictionary

• - noun, number of synonyms: 8 youth young people young tribe young young people growing tribe younger generation youth ...

  Synonym dictionary

• - Cm....

  Synonym dictionary

"YOUNG POPULATION" in books

Which country in the world has the youngest population?

the author Kondrashov Anatoly Pavlovich

Which country in the world has the youngest population? The most youthful country in the world is Yemen. As of 1998, 52 percent of Yemenis are under 15

Young tribe

From the book Diary Leaves. Volume 2 the author

Young tribe "Hello, young tribe, unfamiliar ..." Is it really so unfamiliar? If we remember the best aspirations, gullibility, the desire to do something useful, then the unfamiliarity disappears. And everything young is intelligible and loves movement. From a young age, fate

Young. Student

From the book of Yaroshenko the author

Young. Student In the dispute between the old and the young, which Yaroshenko unsuccessfully captured on the canvas and which every day, hourly, without fading, fiercely happened in life, the artist himself took the side of the young. And the main thing here is not that Yaroshenko (especially in the eighties)

Young. Student

From the book of Yaroshenko the author Proudominskiy Vladimir Ilyich

Young. The course student The cycle of Ouspensky's essays, among which was also printed an essay on "The course student", is entitled: "From conversations with friends." The story about the picture is the beginning of the essay, the reason for "conversations and reasoning" that arose between friends, as soon as they left

24. THE TRIBE YOUNG

From the book of Roerich the author Anthology of Humane Pedagogy

24. THE YOUNG TRIBE "Hello, a young, unfamiliar tribe ..." Is it really so unfamiliar? If we remember the best aspirations, gullibility, the desire to do something useful, then the unfamiliarity disappears. And everything young is intelligible and loves movement. From a young age, fate

Young tribe

From the book About the Eternal ... the author Roerich Nicholas Konstantinovich

Young tribe "Hello, young tribe, unfamiliar ..." Is it really so unfamiliar? If we remember the best aspirations, gullibility, the desire to do something useful, then the unfamiliarity will disappear. And everything young is intelligible and loves movement. From a young age, fate has set

Young Movement

From the book About the Eternal ... the author Roerich Nicholas Konstantinovich

Young Movement Everything young and working is close to my heart. If you take a few titles of my articles from the "Power of Light", you will see that they were written as if for your young movement and at the same time meant the same youth and the same construction

Young movement

From the book Legends of Asia (collection) the author Roerich Nicholas Konstantinovich

Younger generation

From the book Dialogues Memories Reflections the author Igor Stravinsky

The young generation of RK From your compositions, young avant-garde artists revere "The Sacred Spring", Three Japanese poems, various Russian songs, "A Bike about the Fox" and the Symphony of Wind Instruments, but sharply negatively regard your so-called neoclassical

Which country in the world has the youngest population?

From the book The newest book of facts. Volume 1 [Astronomy and astrophysics. Geography and other earth sciences. Biology and Medicine] the author Kondrashov Anatoly Pavlovich

Which country in the world has the youngest population? The most youthful country in the world is Yemen. As of 1998, 52 percent of Yemenis are under 15

Younger generation

From the book Brazil for the curious the author Avrorsky Vladimir Viktorovich

The Younger Generation During that summer, I often visited the country house in Bertioga. This quiet town is located on the ocean, where the picturesque mountains of Serra do Mar begin. The best place to stay is hard to find. My vacation was drawing to a close. The days dragged on

World population and soul population

From the book Man Among Religions the author Krotov Victor Gavrilovich

World Population and Soul Population Demographers know how to count the number of people living on Earth. This number is so huge that even the most dynamic person has to communicate in his life with only an insignificant fraction of humanity. Biologists are just as adept

Young movement

From the book Fiery Stronghold (collection) the author Roerich Nicholas Konstantinovich

Young movement Everything young and working is close to my heart. If you take a few titles of my articles from the "Power of Light", you will see that they were written as if for your young movement and at the same time meant the same youth and the same construction

"I AM A YOUNG GIFT ..."

From the book The Riddle of Tal. The second "I" of Petrosyan the author Vasiliev Viktor Lazarevich

"I AM A YOUNG GIFT ..." Misha Tal was an "ordinary child prodigy." When this word - "prodigy" is pronounced, people are usually alarmed. Soap bubble. So beautiful, shining with rainbow colors, while he is small. And then ... then only scraps of soapy foam remain.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Map median age (from and to) in different countries as of 2001. Last line - no data

Demographic aging of the population- an increase in the proportion of the elderly and old people in the total population.

This is the result of long-term demographic changes, shifts in character population reproduction,fertility,mortality, their ratios, and also partially migrations.

Taking into account the trends and consequences of demographic aging is the most important task demographic policy.

Types of demographic aging

aging “from below” (the result of a decrease in fertility);

aging "from above" (the result of an increase in life expectancy and a decrease in mortality at older ages in conditions of low fertility)

"Bottom" and "Above" are used in connection with a special graphic way of depicting the age structure of the population in the form age pyramids... A decrease in fertility leads to a narrowing of the base, and a decrease in mortality leads to an expansion of the peak.

Criteria for assessing demographic aging

The aging coefficients of the following type have received the greatest application in assessing the aging of the population:

where S 60+ and S 65 + -corresponds to the number of persons aged 60 and over and 65 and over; S- total population.

In the Russian Federation, the first indicator is mainly used. The second indicator is used in a number of Western countries and in international UN statistics.

When assessing the process of demographic aging (if the age of 60 is used as a criterion), a scale constructed by the French demographer J. Bojeu-Garnier and modified by E. Rosset is used:

Scale of demographic aging by J. Bojeux-Garnier-E. Rosset
Stage	Share of people aged 60 and over,%	Aging stages and old age levels of the population
		Demographic youth
		The first threshold of old age
		Actually the threshold of old age
		Demographic old age
		The initial level of demographic old age
		Average demographic old age
		High level of demographic old age
		Very high level of demographic old age

If the age of 65 is chosen as a criterion, then the UN demographic aging scale is used:

Demographic aging in the world

If the developed countries faced the problem of population aging before anyone else, then by now the process of demographic aging of the population has swept the whole world.

V 1950 8% of the world's population was over 60 years old. 2000 year - 10%

2050 year - 21% (according to the forecast UN)

The share of the population over 60 years old in 2000 and 2050 according to the UN forecast,%
Country	2000 year	2050 BC
Australia
Azerbaijan
Argentina
Afghanistan
Bahamas
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belarus
Bulgaria
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Botswana
Brazil
Burkina Faso
United Kingdom
Venezuela
East Timor
Guadeloupe
Guatemala
Guinea-Bissau
Germany
Honduras
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Dominican Republic
West Sahara
Zimbabwe
Indonesia
Jordan
Ireland
Iceland
Cape Verde
Kazakhstan
Cambodia
Kyrgyzstan
Colombia
Comoros
Costa Rica
Ivory Coast
Luxembourg
Mauritania
Mauritania
Madagascar
Macedonia
Malaysia
Maldives
Martinique
Mozambique
Moldavia
Mongolia
Netherlands antilles
Netherlands
Nicaragua
New Zealand
New Caledonia
Norway
Pakistan
Palestine
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Portugal
Puerto Rico
The Republic of Korea
Russian Federation
Salvador
Saudi Arabia
Swaziland
Saint Lucia
Singapore
Slovakia
Slovenia
Solomon islands
Sierra leone
Tajikistan
Tanzania
Trinidad and Tobago
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Philippines
Finland
French guiana
French polynesia
Croatia
Switzerland
Sri Lanka
Equatorial Guinea
Yugoslavia