Will the dollar decline. The ruble did not notice the intervention. Possible scenarios

Most Russian citizens would like to know what the ruble exchange rate will be in the near future, at least in a year. Why a year later? Because it is pointless to look further - a reasonable forecast will not work, and fortune-telling is a thankless task. Life in general is becoming less and less predictable.

Who could have guessed a year ago, in April 2014, that by the end of the year the dollar would cost 70-80 rubles? A person who dared to make such a forecast would then be considered inadequate. At that time, the smooth devaluation of the ruble was seen as a promising decrease in its value from 36 to 39 rubles per dollar only by 2017. Today, i.e. just a year later, the dollar is worth a little less than 52 rubles, and a couple of months ago it reached 70 and even 80. The Russian man in the street is shocked - no one foresaw such a cataclysm. Moreover, this landslide devaluation is not a definite economic failure, but a long-term trend explained by many reasons.

Already now, the one-stage impoverishment of the bulk of the population calls into question the possibility of normal existence even in the near future. What is the future of the ruble, and what kind of life should Russians prepare for?

What "puts pressure" on the ruble

Most recently, the reputable agency MIS has once again downgraded government bonds Russia. Reduced also long-term ratings the largest Russian banks Gazprombank, Rosselkhozbank, Alfa-Bank from Ba1 to Ba2 (from “senior unsecured debt” to “negative outlook”). The well-known agency Moody's also confirmed the downgrade of the ratings of all major Russian banks.

The agency considers several factors as the reason for the decline: the rapid drop in oil prices, the Ukrainian crisis and the fall Russian currency... All this cannot but affect the state of the economy, which will face a serious slowdown in growth or even recession in the medium term.

The negative processes in the Russian economy are explained by the following reasons:

• A sharp drop in world oil prices due to its surplus on the market.
• Economic and introduced due to the annexation of Crimea and hostilities in eastern Ukraine.
• A sharp decline in economic relations with Ukraine, which is one of the main economic partners of Russia.
• An additional burden on the budget due to the need for subsidies from Crimea.
• The rejection of Russia's policy towards Ukraine by most of the developed countries.
• Negative internal factors Russian economy(the collapse of the value of shares of large corporations "Mechel", "Bashneft", AFK "Sistema" and some others).
• Currency panic of the population buying up dollars due to a sharp drop in the value of the ruble.
• Mass withdrawal of bank deposits.
• By the threat of the actual withdrawal of Russia from the world financial system, which has been repeatedly stated by British Prime Minister D. Cameron.
• An increase in the number of countries that have joined the anti-Russian sanctions in connection with the events in Ukraine.

The few positive factors in the current state of the economy include:

• An urgent need for real economic reforms to replenish the state budget.
• The likelihood of an increase in world energy prices in the short and medium term.
• Accelerated development of industries most affected by the sanctions.
• The need for deep structural reforms of the economy, the development of a high-tech real sector, import substitution, a departure from the raw material model of the economy.

As you can see, the list of reasons for the fall is reality, and positive sides crisis - bright hopes that have yet to be realized. What can you expect from the ruble against such a difficult economic and political background? Let's take a brief look at how perspectives are seen national currency various experts.

What will happen to the ruble in 2015?

Let us single out several of the most authoritative sources from the expert field. In addition, it is important that these sources are independent and not biased. Bank analysts who know the Russian economy "from the inside" and independent economic experts, whose forecasts are considered the most reliable among specialists, are seen as the most acceptable.

Bankers about the ruble exchange rate for 2015

Analytics Department Swiss bank Credit Suisse is known for the high level of its experts. Analysts of this esteemed investment bank by the middle of summer, further depreciation of the ruble is predicted to 82-84 per US dollar. In a year, however, the Swiss assume some strengthening of the ruble to 73-75 per dollar. The forecast is one of the most pessimistic, moreover, it was made without taking into account the decline key rate By the Central Bank of the Russian Federation from 17% to 15%. The regulator considered that such a measure would stimulate lending. The Ministry of Finance approved the decision, however, we recall that the increase in the key rate was dictated by the need to curb the fall of the ruble. By the way, immediately after the key rate cut, the dollar added two rubles to the value, but a few days later it won back.

The bankers built their forecast for the exchange rate taking into account the geopolitical risks of Russia and the likelihood of changes in oil prices. The Swiss are confident in the continuation of the Ukrainian conflict and the ineffectiveness of the Central Bank's measures to support the ruble, since the pressure on it is mainly carried out from outside. Analysts see no prerequisites for the growth of the ruble, but by the end of 2015 they forecast a slight increase in oil prices (up to $ 70 per barrel). The Swiss see 2015 as the most difficult year for the Russian economy, which will fall by 4.7%.

Another serious bank, Goldman Sachs, also sees no reason to be optimistic. Experts associate the first half of the year with a fall in the ruble exchange rate to 70 per dollar, but by the end of the year they expect a rollback to 60 rubles.

In total, about 20 banks made a forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2015. against the dollar in mid-2015 it is expected to be at the level of 63-64 per US dollar, and by the end of the year 60-62 rubles / dollar. USA.

It is noteworthy that the forecast for inflation dynamics coincides with the estimates of the Central Bank of Russia, which foresees a peak in inflation in the middle of the year with a slowdown by the end of 2015. However, analysts of the regulator are cautious: they speak of a slowdown in inflation by the end of the year as the most favorable scenario for the development of events.

Experts on the ruble exchange rate for 2015

The head of the Ministry of Economic Development A. Ulyukaev is confident that in 2015 the Russian currency will keep the level of 61 rubles per dollar. The minister sees the strengthening of the ruble for a long time: he plans to reach the rate of 52 - 53 rubles per dollar only in 2018. This year will not be easy for the Russian economy: a decline of 3% is expected. The growth of the economy, in his opinion, in 2016 will be 2.3%, in 2017-2018 - 2.5%. It is interesting that A. Ulyukaev does not link the future strengthening of the ruble with the rise in oil prices. In his opinion, the lifting of the sanctions is enough for the Russian economy to start quickly recovering from the crisis.

Popular independent expert S. Demura makes less optimistic forecasts. In the first half of 2015, S. Demura sees the ruble falling to quotations of 82-110 rubles per dollar, which will continue until the end of 2015. He considers the current “lull” to be situational and strongly advises to “pick up” dollars if possible. By the end of April, S. Demura does not exclude a sharp fall in the ruble, but he does not undertake to predict the exact timing, since the financial "calm" can be disrupted at any moment even by insignificant economic news.

S. Demura considers the inevitable default of the United States to be the most dangerous for the Russian economy. The total US debt has reached such a size that it became impossible to service it, even if everything earned was taxed, leaving producers without profit. The unbridled desire to live in debt has led to the fact that the US default is inevitable. When this happens, the dollar will skyrocket, energy prices will fall, and the biggest problems await export-oriented countries (Russia, China, Saudi Arabia).

Serious problems, according to the expert, in the Russian financial system will begin in the second half of 2015, after the reserves of the Central Bank are practically used up, and oil prices may collapse to $ 30 per barrel. In this case, it is difficult to predict the ruble exchange rate, but roughly we can talk about 180 - 210 rubles per dollar.

In general, the main component in the formation of the ruble exchange rate, according to most experts, still remains. Moderate projections are based on the assumption that current oil prices will not change or will change slightly. But the oil market is complex and poorly predictable.

Back in early 2014, for example, none of the experts predicted a sharp drop in oil prices, although the trend towards a moderate decline was obvious. Today, unfortunately, there is no reason to expect an increase in oil prices: the suppliers' storage facilities are overflowing, production volumes are not decreasing, and demand is not growing due to the ongoing economic crisis... The worst for the Russian economy will be a drop in oil prices to $ 15 - $ 20 per barrel, and some experts fully admit this possibility.

So, let's summarize the forecast from S. Demura for 2015:

• An optimistic option. Until the second half of the year, the current ruble exchange rate is maintained. In the second half of the year, the ruble is expected to fall to 80 - 110 rubles per dollar.
• A pessimistic option. In the second half of the year, amid a sharp drop in oil prices and depletion foreign exchange reserves Central Bank ruble exchange rate will collapse to 180 - 210 rubles per dollar. In this case, social upheavals are possible in the country, and the very statehood of Russia will be called into question.

As you can see, the perspectives drawn by the expert range between bad and very bad.

Prospects for the ruble against the euro for 2015

The European economy is in crisis. Unimportant economic indicators Germany, in particular, confirm the regularity of the depreciation of the euro against the dollar. Most experts assume a gradual decline during 2015 to 65 - 75 rubles. The course will mainly be influenced by external economic events that remain unpredictable. Any forecast can change dramatically depending on economic and political events. For Russia, such events are world oil prices and financial sanctions USA and EU.

Summing up, we can recommend citizens to invest free rubles in foreign currency - the American dollar is better or Japanese yen... It is also possible to buy the euro, but it is less interesting, since the crisis of the EU economy continues and the euro is "losing weight" before our eyes. Unfortunately, the fall of the ruble cannot be prevented. The depth of the fall depends on external economic factors, which Russia has very limited opportunities to influence.

It is still impossible to determine exactly according to which scenario the Russian economy will develop. Many experts hope that in the future it will improve the pace of its development and come out of it. The constant rise in prices, the cost of services, the instability of the national currency drives Russians into a depression, from which it is difficult to get out.

But experienced analysts have already figured out what will happen to the dollar in 2018 and when will the dynamics in the field of economics begin. They do not stop sharing this information with journalists so that they transmit the data to the masses. Only in this way is it possible to calm down the degree of discontent and irritation among Russians.

The most important indicator of the stability of the state is the ratio of the dollar to the ruble. No matter how trite it may sound, but Russia is extremely dependent on this currency and any fluctuations in it affect the well-being of ordinary citizens.

Now it has become fashionable to carry out calculations, build charts for the development of foreign currency, build long-term forecasts as to whether it will return the lost positions or not. In this article, we will get acquainted with the opinions of well-known experts who affect the fate of the dollar in the foreseeable future.

Causes of the crisis

As you know, over the past few years, the dollar has increased by more than 40% since 2010. This is due to the unfavorable situation in Syria, as well as the conflict with Ukraine.

In addition, the impetus for growth was given by the global crisis, which began several years ago. After a sharp drop in oil prices, the national currency of Russia began its rapid decline, which ended briefly only with the arrival of 2016.

The Central Bank made periodic attempts to regulate the exchange rate, to stop its growth, but these attempts more often ended in failure than brought the long-awaited positive results.

In addition, the sanctions imposed on the state also made themselves felt. Now the government Russian Federation has high hopes for America and its newly elected President Donald Trump. The American ruler said he was going to lift anti-Russian sanctions.

What can you expect?

Russian scientists have prepared "Operational monitoring of the economic situation in Russia", which says that in 2018 average rate dollar will be 57 rubles. It can be concluded that the country's economy will gradually get out of the hole, and even some positive dynamics will be outlined, allowing it to get rid of the financial shackles.

Experts have developed several scenarios for the development of the Russian economy, and they all imply small (positive) shifts:

• Basic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, the price of the elite Urals crude oil should stabilize at around $ 40 per barrel. In this case, the dollar in 2017 will cost 67 rubles, and in 2018 - 62 rubles.

• Optimistic scenario. If implemented this forecast, then by 2018 the elite oil brand will jump to $ 60 per barrel. In this situation, the ruble will strengthen significantly and by 2017 the average annual indicator will be 60 rubles per dollar; in 2018 - 57.2 rubles per dollar
• Pessimistic scenario. In this case, oil quotes will drop even lower - $ 33-34 per barrel. Experts say that the dollar exchange rate will then be 82-84 rubles per dollar.

The estimates of analysts from the Gaidar Institute, VAVT and RANEPA are in line with the forecasts of the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance, which also developed their own forecasts for the development of the Russian economy. In addition, the financial expert of BCS Vladimir Tikhomirov is sure that the strengthening of the ruble in the next two years is quite possible and does not seem illusory to him.

“The strengthening of the ruble could have been more significant if our economy had shown more significant growth. In this case, investors would be more actively buying ruble assets, which would contribute to the growth of the Russian currency, ”Tikhomirov said.

According to Tikhomirov, not only the products of its processing affect the dollar exchange rate and the strengthening of the Russian currency. In addition to these indicators, the demand for raw materials, domestic demand for foreign exchange from the population and enterprises, as well as foreign policy factors are also extremely important.

“A stable oil price alone is not enough to strengthen the ruble. Taking into account the difference in inflation and the dynamics of GDP in Russia and the United States, the ruble should depreciate against the dollar by 5% annually, ”he says.

According to the expert GDP of Russia in 2017 there will be no more than 2%, which, of course, is not enough for a full recovery.

Denis Poryvai, an analyst at Raiffeisenbank, also spoke about the dollar rate in the near future.

“If the price of oil rises to $ 40 per barrel, the dollar exchange rate can be 67 rubles. If oil is above $ 50, then the dollar may cost 61–62 rubles. I do not think that even with a more significant dynamics of oil prices, the ruble will be significantly strengthened. It is not beneficial for either the government or exporters, ”said Poryvay.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2018

Already, you can familiarize yourself with the approximate data on the dollar exchange rate, which will be established in 2018. Of course, these figures cannot be pinned serious hopes, because the situation in the country may change in the most unexpected way. But it is still necessary to take them into service.

The independent analytical agency APECON presented its vision of the dollar exchange rate in 2018:

Summarizing all of the above, we can conclude that the dollar exchange rate in 2018 will be significantly affected by an increase in oil prices, as well as a narrowing of Russia's sanctions range.

At the same time, the external and internal situation in the country also affects this indicator. As numerous forecasts show, in the near future the state will still be able to cope with economic troubles and get a stable economy again.

The question of whether the dollar will rise in the near future worries many people. This opinion is supported by many analysts, they believe that according to all available parameters, the dollar is close to the development of an uptrend.

The growth of the American currency is ensured by the fact that there are technical and fundamental prerequisites for this. Basically, they are connected with the fact that the debt crisis in the Eurozone is still very far from ending.

If you carry out technical analysis This question, then, according to experts on the currency strategy, there is good reason to assume that the uptrend, which has just begun, will continue both in the medium and long term.

Dollars will rise in value also because this is the policy of the United States of America: one of its main goals is to lower oil prices.

It is no secret to anyone that high oil prices are unprofitable for the United States, so there is nothing strange in the fact that everything is being done to make black gold prices fall. In turn, this leads to a drop in the exchange rate. Russian ruble against the US currency.

Consequences of a weak European economy

Speaking about the reasons for the growth of usd, it should be reminded once again: the dollar is strengthening not so much because the US economy is thriving, but because the economies of many countries in the Eurozone are in dire straits.

In many European countries, the unemployment rate is growing, large debts and high social costs lead to the fact that the rate of the single European currency cannot compete with the dollar.

So how much will the dollar grow, is this the reason that you need to panic and urgently buy the American currency? After the growth of the American currency was the most rapid in the first days of 2014 and the psychological bar was overcome, a large number of people began to rapidly buy usd, but this only contributed to its further growth. Employees of leading banks note that a large amount of American currency was bought not only individuals but also by many large companies.

Of course, when growth is observed, the Russian currency immediately begins to decline in value. Against this background, rates on short-term ruble loans are growing. Taking into account the fact that the largest bank clients who have more than a million dollars on their accounts (they were in rubles), now prefer to place their funds on foreign currency deposits.

Russians are buying dollars

After the Russian ruble passed the psychological mark, some private clients began to shift their savings into usd, as some believe that the weakening of the Russian national currency is based on fundamental factors. And after some Russian banks began to sell foreign currency in limited volumes, the situation only worsened, and at one time psychosis even began to be observed.

However, you should not give in to panic - central bank Russia is responding quite adequately to the current situation; in the plans of the largest Russian financial institution- sell $ 200 million every day. Leading experts believe that in this way the market will calm down, since the long-term rate of the American currency is absolutely not beneficial to anyone. If the capital outflow is the same, then the Central Bank of Russia has every opportunity to carry out massive interventions.

A large number of traders who trade in the financial markets are extremely concerned about the possible growth of the dollar. It must be taken into account that on foreign exchange market there is a correction, and no definite trends are observed.

Russian specialists economic development are fully confident that the exchange rate of the Russian currency against the US ruble will be significantly depreciated. There is an opinion that already in 2025 more than 43 rubles will be given for one American dollar.

Other reasons for the growth of the American currency

There are very good reasons for this, one of which is the country's innovative development path. However, according to economic forecasts, by 2030 the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the dollar will begin to strengthen. According to some experts, the innovative path of development of Russia is the only way out of its rapid development. Nevertheless, there are such changes that will cause certain negative consequences to arise. Thanks to gold reserves The Central Bank countries are very large (and no decrease is expected in the near future), it becomes clear that there are no reasons for the most pessimistic forecasts.

But still the main reason the growth of the dollar is that the economies of many European countries are not in the best position. In this regard, many leading experts expect the single European currency to fall, which leads to the strengthening of the American currency. The US economy is far from ideal, but today no one can oppose it. Despite the fact that it is very difficult to make forward-looking forecasts for the future, there is no doubt that the main competitor of the dollar cannot oppose anything with usd. Considering the current situation in the world, there is no doubt that usd will grow.

This forecast can be changed by each state separately, but at present there are no prerequisites for the fact that in the world economic market dramatic changes will take place.

In order for Europe to be able to strengthen its currency, it needs to make every effort to get out of the economic crisis. Nevertheless, it should be noted that at the current stage all the prerequisites will be unsuccessful, and this is the reason that the dollar rate will rise.

Particularly difficult situation in Europe in the banking sector, world economy This state of affairs is not encouraging, it can have the most negative impact on the formation of relations that have developed in the economy. Suffice it to say that the ratings of the leading banks in Portugal and the UK have been significantly downgraded.

Will the usd rate grow further?

The growth of the dollar can also be explained by the fact that debts are being repaid on a large scale in Russia. And not only the state, but also leading banks and enterprises are engaged in debt recovery. In order to repay debts, banks used to borrow currency, now they are buying it on the market. And this contributes to the fact that there is a leak of currency from the country. As for the state, the return of foreign currency debts is carried out in the form of export payments. Export duties are listed in Russian budget, which is an outflow of foreign exchange. The outflow of foreign currency through repatriation of income received by investors is very large - at least $ 2 billion a year.

Oddly enough, the dollar will grow also because the standard of living of the majority of Russian citizens is getting higher from year to year. This is a fact that is difficult to argue with. And the more people earn, the more they spend, this is an axiom. Consumer demand is growing, in order to fully satisfy it, a large amount of currency is needed, which contributes to an increase in its rate. And despite the fact that the prices for the American currency have increased, the demand for it is great.

In 2014, many Russians were surprised by the fall of the ruble, which was rapid and significant. This was explained by many reasons, among which were the tense situation in relations with other countries, a sharp decline in the cost of oil, the conflict with Ukraine and many other factors, which in most cases were external.

No one could even imagine what would happen next, however, the depreciation of the ruble continued until February 2016. It was this month that certain changes occurred, which led to the fact that the dollar began to fall, but many people are interested in what the forecasts are, the dynamics are good or bad, and also whether the dollar will rise again or continue to fall.

Why is the dollar falling now?

At the very beginning of 2016, many financial analysts argued that a significant strengthening of the ruble is expected by the fall of this year. Indeed, these predictions were correct, as there were already significant changes in the second month, as the dollar fell against the Russian currency.

The growth of the dollar is provided by the following factors:

• stable political and economic situation in America;
• good relations with other European countries;
• high demand for currency.

Naturally, with the growth of the dollar, the fall of the ruble is ensured, however, what can affect the fall of the dollar? The following reasons can be distinguished here:

• In Russia, almost all people, after a significant increase in the exchange rate of the dollar and the euro began, tried to get rid of the currency as soon as possible in order to receive significant funds in the form of rubles, and after that, when the exchange rate settled at a very high rate, Russians' demand for foreign currency has dropped significantly. Accordingly, this negatively affected its different types. As a result, the fall of the ruble was stopped, it began to strengthen, which had a positive effect on its exchange rate.
• Russia has begun to improve relations with other European countries, which also find it unprofitable to impose any sanctions against the Russian Federation. This has a good effect on the ruble exchange rate, however, it has a bad effect on the dollar.
• Oil prices have recently increased significantly, and this is due to the fact that many countries that are selling this resource do not want to lose profits, therefore, they are changing prices.

Will the dollar grow in the future?

To answer this question, you need to know exactly why the dollar is growing and why it is falling. After all, there are both factors of growth and decline. Therefore, in order to make any assumptions, you need to constantly follow the news, monitor the foreign exchange market, and also be well versed in politics and economics. You can trust experts who determine why the dollar is growing and the ruble is falling.

If the dynamics continue, then soon we can expect that the ruble will grow steadily, therefore, the country's economic indicators will improve. Financial analysts suggest that a good outlook is being provided by improving relations with other countries.

However, it is advisable to independently figure out why the dollar is growing, why the ruble is falling and why the euro is growing.

Factors of changes in rates of different currencies

Initially, it is important to determine why the dollar is growing, and this happens for the following reasons:

• For many, fear is the dollar acts as a reserve currency, so it will be very bad for them if the rate of this currency starts to fall.
• As a rule, international transactions of different countries of the world are carried out precisely in dollars, although recently it began to be replaced by the euro everywhere.
• If the dollar falls, it will badly affect the economy different countries, but if the dollar continues to grow, it will have a good effect on financial indicators different states.
• When the US Federal Reserve meeting was held, it was decided that America's economy should be supported different countries... For this, a huge number of short-term debt obligations were sold. At the same time, long-term liabilities were acquired in the amount of about $ 400 billion. This led to the fact that many large investors interested in securities USA. Due to the assets that flowed into the country, the currency began to strengthen. However, what will happen next with the dollar is still unknown, since the country still has many different tricks to raise the rate, so it is too early to make forecasts.
• The reasons for the growth additionally lie in the fact that the financial regulator has not yet notified different states on whether future plans include an increase in dollar liquidity.
• When the ruble began to fall, and instability in the euro appeared, many investors began to create deposits in dollars, which had a positive effect on its exchange rate, and this is shown by the dynamics of its changes.

Why is the ruble falling? It is also important to know the factors that negatively affect the national currency of Russia, and these include:

• the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions by a large number of Western countries, which significantly hit the economy, and, accordingly, had a bad effect on the national currency;
• the annexation of Crimea led to the fact that most Money it came from the budget exactly there, therefore, when it became necessary to provide money for other directions, a crisis arose, due to which the ruble began to fall;
• the military conflict in Ukraine negatively affected the attitude towards Russia;
• when the ruble began to fall rapidly, many people began to transfer funds into other types of foreign currency, which means that the demand for the national currency fell, as a result of which its exchange rate began to fall even more;
• the cost of goods that are exported outside Russia has significantly decreased due to the bad attitude towards the country on the part of other states;
• the ruble falls due to the fact that credit institutions increase the demand for foreign exchange;
• it is impossible to refinance financial liabilities registered in foreign banks.

If you know why the ruble is falling, then you can understand well the situation in which it can begin to strengthen and grow.

Additionally, it is important to know why the euro is growing against the ruble, and this is due to the following factors:

• changes in the laws and principles of the economy in the foreign exchange market;
• news, military conflicts and the attitude of other states towards Russia directly affects the euro exchange rate;
• foreign exchange intervention The Central Bank contributes to the growth of the euro currency rate;
• the state of the Russian economy, which is considered to be in crisis, also contributes to the growth of the euro.

Will the dollar grow in 2017?

The dynamics of changes in the rates of various currencies shows that at the beginning of 2016 the ruble began to strengthen, and, accordingly, the dollar exchange rate began to decline. Therefore, many people are interested in the question, the dollar will grow this year or will continue to decline.

There are completely different forecasts for the near future, so even financial analysts cannot say for sure whether the dollar rate will rise again or continue to fall. However, if we evaluate all the factors that affect the national currency and the dollar, as well as if the dynamics are carefully studied, various forecasts and expert opinions are reviewed, then a certain picture can be drawn.

Some analysts argue that little change is expected as Russia is still in a difficult crisis situation and it is impossible to say exactly when it will come out of the crisis. This means that the national currency will not be able to strengthen, but only this can affect the decline in the dollar, as a result of which changes, if any, will be insignificant. One can also highlight the question of why oil is getting cheaper and the dollar is growing.

This is due to the fact that its rate is influenced not only by the price of oil, but also by many other factors, therefore, only such an effect cannot improve economic situation in the RF.

However, there are completely opposite forecasts, according to which it is assumed that the ruble will begin to strengthen. The following arguments are cited as justification:

• the conflict in Ukraine is regulated;
• the cost of oil will rise;
• the number of imposed anti-Russian sanctions will decrease, and some of them will be completely canceled.

Such a forecast is also considered noteworthy, since all these factors will indeed be observed in 2016.

Thus, it is almost impossible to say for sure whether the dollar will start rising or falling in 2016. There are only different forecasts that are made financial analysts... For this, the dynamics of change is used. different types currencies, however, it is still not known when any changes can be expected.

The situation with foreign currency today it is extremely incomprehensible - after the powerful growth of the USD, an equally rapid decline began. Will the dollar fall further in 2019, will the Russians wait for a decline to 50 rubles and below? Is it worth buying or selling dollars and what are the leading experts saying?

The head of Sberbank, German Gref, in one of his recent interviews said that "the peak of the crisis has already passed," however, added that one cannot speak about this "with certainty." Many Kremlin deputies also pompously declare that the sanctions and the cheapening of oil did not affect the Russian economy in any way. However, other experts, for example, Stepan Demura, continue to adhere to the version that the dollar will fall further, but with small stops and pullbacks. So will the dollar fall further in 2019, or should Russians expect it to rise?

In fact, there is some very positive news. If oil rises in price by 10%, as confirmed by some forecasts, and the United States lifts some of the sanctions, and the Central Bank contributes to the support of reserves, then the rate of 60-65 rubles by May is quite a likely phenomenon. But this is with a very optimistic forecast.

In general, the current strengthening of the national currency is primarily due to the regulations of the Central Bank. The bank began to buy up currency in order to fill international reserves... Naturally, the rates dropped significantly. In addition, intensive investment in the real sector has now begun, which also affects the depreciation of the dollar. But it is absolutely clear that the reserves will fill up rather quickly, and the real sector, being in a strong decline, is unlikely to be able to provide the economy with profit in the near future.

What are the predictions

The recent news that OPEC has reduced oil production quotas by only 0.2 million barrels per day, makes it rather sad predictions for the Russian economy. Arab countries do not want to reduce profits. The cost of oil production in the UAE is lower than in Russia, the quality is higher, and the production possibilities are endless. In a word, it again began to smell like a collapse of the oil market against the background of an oversupply of black gold on the world exchange. If oil falls contrary to forecasts, then the dollar will not fall further in 2019, on the contrary, it will grow significantly, as Demura and other experts predict.

Again, it is unrealistic to lift the economy in the next few years and increase the share of import substitution. Especially against the backdrop of colossal investments in the defense industry, high levels of corruption and massive money laundering. Therefore, the dollar is likely to grow in one way or another. But - with interruptions and kickbacks, as we saw in the spring of 2019.

Most likely, the USD will rise to 70-72 rubles by the fall, then roll back to 65-66, and then rise again. Therefore, fluctuations in the Russian foreign exchange market can be fully used for making money. But - at your own peril and risk, since the consequences monetary policy The Central Bank is unlikely to be able to predict with sufficient accuracy.

One thing is clear - there will be no total strengthening of the ruble against the dollar yet. There is nothing for him to strengthen. Exchange rate fluctuations depend only on the Central Bank, and not on the real state of the economy. But when the crisis in Russia 2019 will end, it seems, is already known. But let's hope for the best, and keeping some of the funds in dollars and euros is safer.