From which consumer demand depends. Consumer demand of the population. Types of degree of demand

Instruction

Spend initial product testing. To do this, distribute experienced samples to your dealers, potential customers or take part in the profile exhibition. Summarize the data obtained, analyze all the pros and cons, it will be useful for further refinement of the product before starting production.

If your product is intended for, carry out customer polls. To do this, use questionnaires that distribute in places possible implementation of this type of goods. QUESTIONS Make up so that in the answers you can learn how much the buyer would like to see this product, what functions the goods should have, and how much it should cost. The more buying needs with respect to this product you find out, the more opportunity you will have for the production of high-quality and highly consumed product.

Perform an analysis of the consumer demand market. To do this, explore similar products of competitors, and then compare with the data on the demand for your product. This will give you new ideas to improve your product and help learn about general trend development of this commodity market. In addition, you will avoid repetition of existing and embodied ideas.

Determine the target market of sales. It should be most specialized, i.e., when analyzing possible demand for its product, you must focus on a specific audience. For example, the study of demand for its product from the discharge of spare parts to cars is meaningless in grocery stores, etc. In order to understand the situation "from the inside", put yourself in the buyer's place and look at your goods with his eyes. What is attractive in it, which is fundamentally new and optimally, in it, the ratio of price and quality is optimally.

Buying demand forms a variety of factors. The structure and form of consumer demand affects the microeconomics of the area, climate, material factor, the level of culture of the population, its professional and national component, and, of course, fashion trends. In stores and networks of the industrial directions use a variety of methods for studying demand.

Instruction

Analyze the offers and remarks of consumers on the range and quality of products that are implemented in your outlet.

Examine the turnover. See what they bought better. To effectively analyze consumer demand, it is necessary to determine the number of sales in color, style, size.

Organize the exhibition-implementation. Such exhibitions contribute to the expansion of the cargo of buyers in relation to the product range and demonstrate a high level of culture of public service.

Organize the exhibition-demonstration. Show buyers new products in all its glory.

Registration by the head of the store of a conjunctural review will be the result of the work on how to explore the demand of buyers. Furnishing are monthly and quarterly. They reflect the accounting of the execution of turnover plans: a list of products that are not in sales, and products that demand not fully satisfied; Consumer recommendations are given regarding the quality, design, style of goods that are in the implementation.

Demand is the relationship between the price and the amount of goods that consumers want and can acquire at a particular price over a separate period of time. It is necessary to distinguish the concepts of demand and the amount of demand. The amount of demand is the amount of goods that the buyer is ready to purchase at a certain price, and complete demand for the goods is the readiness of the consumer to buy goods at different prices.

Instruction

Any price that is appointed by the Seller will affect anyway at the level of demand for products. You can find out, it will be sold in the market at different prices for a certain period of time. In the usual situation, the price is located in inversely proportional dependency: the higher the price, the lower demand. Accordingly, the lower the price, the higher the demand. Raising price for the goods, the company will sell a smaller amount of goods. Many consumers with a limited budget when a collision with a choice of alternative goods will become buying those prices for them too high.

The sensitivity of demand in relation to the price change in the indicator of elasticity. This indicator determines how much percent one variable can change when a 1% change of another variable can change. If demand is practically not changing under the influence of a small price change, it means it is inelastic. If demand changes significantly, then it is considered elastic. Knowing the elasticity of demand for the goods manufactured to the market, the entrepreneur has the ability to predetermine the reaction of consumers to change the price. In addition, an elasticity indicator in the assessment of trends is a meter of change in total expenses of the organization, depending on the nature of the demand for goods.

The magnitude of current demand can be determined by comparing the volume of goods, their total value implementation by this market and identifying the number of potential consumers of this product living in the area of \u200b\u200bthe location of the market. It is possible to determine promising demand with the help of forecasting, by applying various methods of forecasting, taking into account the existing trends in demand, the actions of various factors of alleged marketing efforts in the future. Estimation of the elasticity of demand from the price will show the maximum price, the goods on which can be the market is accepted with a certain amount of sales.

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Often marketers and sociologists are analyzed by consumers and their financial capabilities. Often it is necessary and owners trade enterprises or lenders. In any case, it must be performed in the correct sequence.

You will need

• - analysis skills;
• - Knowledge of consumer and concrete market areas.

Instruction

Increase income and expenses that the consumer leads, as a rule, on the basis of a personal budget. It may be financial plan Family, home or separate person, where it is necessary to fold the costs and revenues for a certain period. Naturally, such budgets can be redundant or deficient. In the event that the consumer has costs and incomes correspond to each other, then bud-it can be called balanced.

Determine financial goals consumer. They depend on preliminary solutions on large purchases (acquisition of the house, traveling a tourist trip, opening their business), which are usually difficult to implement using only current income. The consumer in its financial capabilities is always limited, and the purchase of one subject can lead to the abandonment of the other. It also takes accounting for the necessary savings or consumer credit.

Evaluate the alleged income of the consumer, having completed all possible sources of income. The main of them can be attributed wages for professional activities, and to others - income from accumulated material condition or rational use money.

Give the consumer spending assessment. This is the most difficult part of consumer behavior on financial markets. Here you need to show as much as possible knowledge and skills the possibility of marketing. There are costs for such actions of consumers as purchases, credit and savings.

Take a decision on consumer solvency and select Variants in accordance with the estimated income: secondary or priority, cheaper or expensive. It is necessary to decide which expenses can be reduced so that the consumer's budget is balanced. In this process, consumers are faced with what is called replacement price. It is necessary to decide which goods and services the consumer must refuse to purchase other goods or services.

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In accordance with Keynesian theory, the level of economic activity (the maximum possible level of production is the total proposal) depends on cumulative demand And its speakers. The magnitude of the total demand, as already mentioned, is measured by the volume of the planned cash flow All aggregated subjects of the national economy.

A greater share in total demand is household demand for goods and services, or consumer demand.IN developed countries Its share is more than 60% of aggregate demand. Therefore, the cumulative demand and its dynamics depend primarily on the level and dynamics of consumer demand.

The value of consumer demand for goods and services at a constant price level is determined by the following factors:

the amount of disposable household income; The size of family property and income from it.

TO special factorsdetermining the level of consumer demand, taking into account the fact that the household sector is an aggregated value, one more should be attributed:

the degree of differentiation of the population in terms of income and the size of family property;

population size.

The main factordetermining the amount of consumer demand is the magnitude of the disposable income (DI), which represents the amount of income from participation in the production and transfer payments for a minus tax.

Although people independently decide how to use the disposable income, however, the method of using disposable income depends, first of all, from its magnitude.

Some households not all disposable income spend on current consumption, some of them is saved (D / \u003d C + S) for expenses in the future.

Other households all current income spend on current consumption ( DI-C.).

There are cases when the costs of some households on current consumption exceed the current income ( C\u003e DI). This means that such households "eat" the accumulated wealth, selling property and removing funds with bank deposits, Or live at the expense of loans.

If we consider the household sector as a whole, then all of their current disposable income is divided into consumed and saved parts. When the value of the disposable income changes, the value of current consumption costs and the value of savings are changed.

The value of consumer spending depends not only on the size of the disposable income, but also on what proportion it is divided into consumed and saved parts.

The ratio of increase in consumption consumption to the growth of disposable income is called limit addiction to consumption(MRC - from English marginal Propensity to Consume). It reflects the share of the disposal income, sent for additional consumption:

The ratio of the increase in the amount of savings to the increase in the amount of disposable income is called limit propensity to savings (MPS. - from the English, marginal Propensity to Save). It shows the share of savings increment in the growth of disposable income:

All disposable income and the increase of its values \u200b\u200bare divided only into two parts - consumed and saved. therefore

The functions of consumption and savings, taking into account this look like this:

IN macroeconomic analysis are used the average for the entire household sector MDC values \u200b\u200band MPS. They differ from these indicators characterizing separate categories Households. According to statistics, households with low incomes spend on consumption greater their share than rich households. With regard to savings, the picture is directly opposite. The less income, the smaller the share of them is saved. The poorest farms do not save anything at all, and some of them even consume more than getting, that is, live in debt.

Consumption costs in each period also depend on how much households spend using past savings or borrowing. The presence of savings and the possibility of borrowing allows you to carry out consumption costs exceeding the current income, and even at zero current disposable income. Thus, cumulative consumption costs consist of two parts:

first part - Expenditures whose source is the current disposable income. Their magnitude is directly dependent on the size of the disposable income and the limiting tendency to consumption;

the second part of- Expenditures whose source is past savings, accumulated property or borrowing (the source of borrowing of some households are saving other households). Their value does not depend on the magnitude of the current disposable income. This part of consumption costs is called autonomous( from English autonomy).

Respectively autonomous ( SA) Called savings, the value of which does not depend on the magnitude of the current disposable income, that is, it is savings made in past periods. Since the source of the autonomous part of consumption costs are past savings, then when using them, in the current period, their value decreases by the amount of additional autonomous consumption expenses (Ca \u003d ~ SA).

Taking into account this function of expenses for current consumption and savings, have the following form:

SA and - SA - These are the volume of consumption and savings at zero current income, that is, not dependent on it of their magnitude.

Due to the fact that the cost of household sector on current consumption consists of two parts, then limit tendency to consumption and savings should be distinguished from the average tendency to consumption and savings.

Average addiction to consumption(ARS. - from the English, average Propensity to Consume) It is measured by the ratio of the amount of consumption costs to the value of the current income:

Average tendency to savings (APS - from English average Propensity to Save) It is measured by the ratio of the amount of savings to the magnitude of the current disposable income:

Comparison of formulas Ars. and MPS Indicates that in the presence of an autonomous part of consumption ARS\u003e MRC.

In the absence of an autonomous part of consumption, the average tendency to consumption is equal to the limit

In the absence of an autonomous part of consumption, the dependence of consumption from the value of the current disposable income is clearly displayed by the consumption curve, which is a beam conducted from the beginning of the coordinates with an inclination angle equal to the limit tendency to consumption (MRC). Bisectrix, conducted from the beginning of the coordinates, reflects the situation in which all disposable income

Fig. 52.

consumables for current consumption (C \u003d Di) without accounting autonomous consumption (Fig. 52).

In the presence of an autonomous part of consumption, the consumption curve of the coast began its beginning from the point on the axis of the ordinate reflecting its value (the curve of the autonomous part of consumption is the line, parallel axis abscissa). The angle of inclination of the total consumption consumption curve is MRC. Accordingly, the slope of the savings curve will be equal to the limit propensity to the savings (MPS). Its beginning will be in the negative area of \u200b\u200bthe ordinate axis. This means that part of past savings is spent on current consumption.

Suppose the functions of consumption and savings are given by the following equations:

Then the functions of consumption and savings will graphically take the form shown in Fig. 53.

On the subject of what the tendencies of people are determined to current consumption and savings, which means that the proportions in which current income is distributed between consumption and savings, there are various explanations in economic theory.

Fig. 53.

The most famous are Keynesian and classical concepts of consumption and savings.

J. Keynes proceeded from the fact that the consumption of households depends only from the absolute value of the current disposable income. The proportion in which the current disposable income is divided into consumed and saved parts is determined by Keynes, not objective, but subjective factors (habits, traditions, psychological inclinations). In this regard, J. Keynes formulated " the main Easter Law ": "The psychology of society is such - he writes, - that with the growth of the cumulative real income Comprehensive consumption increases, but not to the same way in which income is growing. " This connection between changes in income and change in consumption, on Keynes, is reversible, that is, it takes place NA only with income growth, but also reduced it. IN general This connection can be formulated as follows: if the income changes, consumption changes in the same direction, but in less than changing income, degree.

Therefore, in accordance with the Keynesian interpretation of people's inconsistencies to consumption and savings, as the absolute value of the disposable income increases, the maximum and average inclination for consumption is reduced. From this it follows that the expansion of production and supply potentially contains the possibility of overproduction, since an increasing share of production produced is consumed by households.

However, this hypothesis is confirmed in practice only for short periods - 2-4 years. Statistical data for longer periods of time do not show a decrease in the limiting leaning to consumption. For a number of highly developed countries, it is characteristic that the limiting tendency to consumption is at the level of 0.8-0.9.

The proportions in which the disposable income is distributed to current consumption and savings, representatives of the classical direction in economic theory are explained by differences in temporal preferences of people Namely, what people give preferencewith the constancy of its magnitude - current or future consumption.

The solution to save part of the current income people take in most cases in order to be able to consume more in the future than the current income (for the purchase of expensive goods, to ensure old age, insurance against unforeseen circumstances, help children and grandchildren in the future, etc. ) Willingness to save (preference for future consumption) more or less current income different people are different. Some people are guided by the rule "Better Tit in hand than a crane in the sky."

Depending on the individual time preferences, which determine the degree of inclination to the savings, distinguish between consumers with positive, negative and zero temporal preferences.

Consumers who agree to refuse to spend in this particular part of the current income only on condition that in the future will be able to spend a greater additional amount than saved, belong to consumers with positive temporal preferences.

Consumers who are willing to save part of the current income, even if in the future they will be able to spend the same amount which saved, have zero temporal preferences.

Negative time preferences Consumers have, who for any reason agree on savings, which will return in the future in a smaller size. Such people are most likely not much.

Most people with positive temporary preferences. At the same time, for consumers with positive temporal preferences, it is characteristic that the greater the amount of disposable income is saved, the greater should be compensating for the reduction of current consumption of future extensive expenditure.

The magnitude of future extensive expenses, which is necessary to compensate for reducing costs for current consumption per unit, called the limit norm of temporary preference (MRTP Marginal Rate of Time Preference) or the limit norm of replacement of current consumption of future. This is the magnitude of additional future consumption costs that compensate for the reduction of current well-being due to the failure of an additional cost of current consumption.

If Future additional expenses on consumption to designate CF. Current consumption costs - Cf that

MRTP. reflect readiness Consumers to save a certain part of the current income. However, it does not always coincide with opportunity Ensure compensation for refusal of current consumption by future extensibility costs in accordance with their individual degree (norm) of temporary preferences.

The possibilities of transformation of current consumption in future extensive costs are determined by the value interest rate (d).

If a S. - Saving by refusal to spend part of the current income, Cf. - Costs for current consumption, and with / - compensating for this refusal Consumer spending next year, the value over the income expenditures will be equal next year:

CF \u003d S + Sr \u003d S (L + R), or CF \u003d (DI-CP) ( 1 + g).

Thus, in accordance with the classical concept, the magnitude of savings and future extensive expenses is directly dependent on the interest rate. Accordingly, the amount of expenditures on the current consumption is in the opposite dependence on the interest rate. What it is higher, the more incentives to save the current disposable income, the less the amount of current consumption of households. True, this connection between the percentage rate and the volume of savings is not constant. This is due to the effects of the effects of two types while raising the interest rate: the effect of replacing the current consumption of the future and income effect.

Recognition effect Manifests consumers to reduce the share of spending on current consumption and increase the share of current income sent to savings.

Effect of income It is manifested in the fact that, with an increase in the interest rate, the former savings of the amounts can provide greater volume, and less savings amounts are the former volume of extensibility in the future, which encourages increasing current consumption and reduce savings.

With the constant value of the current disposable income, the volume of savings is determined by the ratio of the forces of the specified effects. With very high rate Percentage The effect effect of the income can "suppress" the effect of the effect of replacement of current consumption of future. The tendency to savings will decrease, and the tendency to consumption will increase.

So, in Keynesians, and in classics (despite the various explanations of the motives of the distribution of the current disposable income on consumed and saved parts), the main factors determining the amount of consumer demand are the magnitude of the current disposable income and the limiting density of households to consumption.

The volumes of current consumption and savings depend on the size of the disposable income and from Keynesians, and in neoclassics. The tendency to savings in Keynesians depends on psychological factors, and the classics - from the interest rate. These differences in savings are due to differences in the equilibrium models of the national market of goods.

Essence of consumer demand

Consumer demand is a leading economic growth factor in industrialized countries. The most significant influence is in small states, where the potential of the domestic market of goods is quite limited. The active demand of consumers contributes to an increase in employment, since most of the labor force is usually concentrated on enterprises where economic activity stimulated by demand from the population. Such companies often have higher labor intensity due to their technological and social specifics.

Consider the structure of personal consumption. Consumer demand is based on personal consumption that takes about 63-64%. Product purchase is an integral part. everyday life any person. A rather long historical period of the main share of the population costs was food and clothing items.

However, over the past decades, the structure of personal needs has been subjected to significant changes. Primary needs are relatively declined, and the needs of a higher row expanded. This served as the basis for strengthening the elasticity between the demand and magnitude of the income.

An important role in the real demand structure is played consumer goods For example, for example, household appliances, interior items, cars, jewelry, etc.

The structure and scale of personal consumption depends on the level of wealth and income of citizens. In the short term economic situation Plays an important role in the development of the consumer market. And in the long term to the consumer market the greatest influence There are changes in the structure of the population and the labor market. Dynamics wages also affects income distribution. However, changes in personal wealth (promotions, bonds, housing) have greater influence on consumer spending, compared with changes in income. Also on the formation of demand affects consumer loan. Sales of a certain share of public product could not be carried out without a consumer loan.

Budget restriction and consumer basket

All consumers, acting according to the principle of rationality of preferences, always seek to buy such goods that maximize their needs, capable of bringing the greatest utility and correspond to their solvency, i.e. The specific amount of income in a certain time period. Therefore, buyers cannot acquire everything immediately, since the choice of a subject of the economy is not arbitrary, but is under the influence of many factors of the market. main independent factor - this is the level of income, since it is determined by the solvency of the subjects of the economy, i.e. Their ability to carry out certain purchases. The income level plays a crucial role in the formation of demand and significantly affects the establishment of equilibrium on the market.

Definition 1.

The budget constraint is a barrier on the way to implement the market for sale and sales transactions, it may arise due to income or price instability. In other words, the entity of the economy has a choice only within the framework of its cash.

However, in the development of the lending system, the purchase "on credit" with the obligations of return for a certain period and reimbursement began to be widely distributed.

Definition 2.

Consumer basket is a possible combination of products and services that can be purchased for the existing monetary amount at a given pricing level. Consumer basket primarily consists of primary goods. Each individual economic entity has an individual composition. consumer basketSince the needs of each person are extremely differentiated due to differences in tastes, income, etc.

The law of optimal consumption V. Pareto plays a significant role in determining the structure of the consumer recruitment and the implementation of the choice. The income is in specific framework and is an absolute value, and the needs call for the purchase of not one product. In this regard, economic entities are always before choosing: what good in this moment Time is the most important and in what quantities it must be purchased.

Note 1.

The principle of pass-efficiency: it is impossible to improve their own well-being without reducing the welfare of the other. In other words, in order to acquire any benefits in more, you should refuse to consume others. This determines the optimal combination of benefits, which allows the rational choice.

Consumer demand as the basis of economic growth

Development of demand from consumers is the main task of the state, on the implementation of which depends the economic growth Russia. The contribution of consumer demand in GDP is about half. However, when incomes of income in the context of the crisis, the consumer market is in a state of recession.

According to Rosstat, household consumption in the amount of GDP in Russia in 2015-2016. It was at the level of 52%. In the post-crisis period, consumer demand is the main locomotive of the economy.

Stimulating consumer demand can be carried out by the following methods:

• Solvency support by providing loans;
• Increasing the competitiveness of domestic goods, as a result of which the price of food for the end consumers will decrease;
• Measures to reduce inflation and inflation expectations, which will ensure the long-term positive economic growth dynamics;
• Stimulating investment, maintaining active market policy;
• Development in the country of diskounters format;
• Optimization of the range in retail stores;
• Development of its own brand in grocery retail.

Consumer and investment demand and its factors

• Consumer demand.
• Investment demand.
• Cumulative demand.

The most important element of cumulative demand is consumer demand.

Consumer demand (c) It is planned cumulative population spending, households, to buy consumer and consumer services, that is, such goods and services that satisfy the personal needs of a person.

Consumer spending of population are numerous and diverse, people buy food, houses, cars, clothes, go to the theater and football, increase their qualifications in foreign language courses, etc.
Most of its income people spend on consumption, but not all income go to consumption. Part of the income is saved by the population; This part is savings. People postpone funds for various reasons. Some waged products for buying an apartment, others postpone money for a sea trip to the next vacation, others buy bonds and promotions of enterprises. So, the entire income of society (Y) is used for consumption (C) and savings (s), and consumer costs are the difference between income and savings.

Y \u003d c + s, c \u003d y - s.

Obviously, the scale of economics consumer spending is less national income and GDP. For example, in Russia in 1998, the cost of final consumption was measured by the amount of 2048 trillion. rub., As for 79.8% GDP Countries. Accordingly, the remaining 518 trillion. rub., Or 20.1% of GDP, were savings (s). In the 1990s. The share of consumption B. GDP of Russia Increased, and the share of savings decreased (Fig. 8.2).

Considering the scale of consumption, it is necessary to keep in mind that in the ultimate consumer consumer spending of households, that is, the costs that in the model of aggregate demand are actually consumer demand (C), accounted for a smaller amount. The fact is that the final consumption also includes expenses public institutions For consumption. Thus, actually consumer demand (C) in Russia in 1998 was measured by the amount of 1507 trillion. rubles, which amounted to 59% of GDP.

• From the previous topic, we know that the most important factors affecting the scale of consumer demandare:
• the level of income of the population, its welfare;
• consumer expectations;
• consumer debt;
• changes in taxation.

Taking into account the fact that it was said about the use of income of the population for consumption and savings, we can allocate another one important factoraffecting the scale of consumer spending is the proportion of fission revenues for consumption and savings. In economic theory, special coefficients are introduced, reflecting this division - the limiting tendency to consumption and the limiting propensity for savings.

Limit tendency to consumption (c) - This is a share additional incomegoing to an increase in consumer spending. In other words, this is the magnitude to which consumption increases with an increase in personal disposable income per unit.

The limit tendency to consume is calculated by dividing the growth of consumer spending on income growth. For example, if income in the economy increased by 100 billion rubles, and consumer spending increased by 75 billion rubles, the maximum leaning to consumption (c) will be 0.75. Obviously, (c) more zero, but less than one (0< c < 1).

Limit tendency to savings (s) - This is the proportion of additional income that goes to an increase in savings. In other words, this is the magnitude to which the savings increase with increasing personal disposable income per unit.

The maximum propensity to savings is calculated by dividing the increase in savings into income growth. For example, if income in the economy has increased by 100 billion rubles, and savings increased by 25 billion rubles, the maximum propensity to savings (S) will be equal to 0.25. Since additional income is used only on consumption and savings, it can be argued that the limiting propensity for savings is the difference between the unit and the limiting tendency to consume (S \u003d 1 - 0.75 \u003d 0.25).

s \u003d 1 - C, C \u003d 1 - s

The main factor affecting the scale of consumer spending is the level of household income. The more income, the more consumer demand. At the same time, we remember that not all income goes to consumption. The share of income that comes to consumption also depends on the limiting tendency to consume. Taking into account this factor, it can be argued that consumer spending is equal to income multiplied by the limiting tendency to consumption. If C \u003d 0.75, then C \u003d 0.25 x y:

C \u003d C x Y.

This dependence of consumer spending on the level of personal disposable income is a function of consumption. Graphically this feature is shown in Fig. 8.3.

On the horizontal axis of coordinates, the income values \u200b\u200bare located on the vertical axis - consumer costs. With increasing income, consumer expenses are also increasing, but to a lesser extent, since only 0.75 comes from each unit of additional income, the remaining portion of 0.25 income goes to savings. For example, with income of 300 trillion. rub. Consumer demand will be 225 trillion. rubles, and with income of 500 trillion. rub. - 375 trillion. rub. (For simplicity of presentation later, the name monetary units And "trill." We will omit.)