Cryptocurrency trading strategy for a beginner. Fall and not do push-ups. The government admitted that the economy was in decline again. There was a decline

Any economy, even the most developed country, is not static. Its indicators are constantly changing. An economic downturn gives way to recovery, a crisis gives way to peak growth values. The cyclical nature of development is characteristic of the market type of management. Changes in the level of employment affect the purchasing power of consumers, which in turn leads to a decrease or increase in the price of products. And this is just one example of the relationship between indicators. Since today most countries are capitalist, such economic concepts, both recession and recovery, are suitable for describing and developing the world economy.

History of the study of business cycles

If you plot the GDP curve of any country, you will notice that growth this indicator is not permanent. Each economic cycle consists of a period of decline in social production and its rise. However, its duration is not clearly defined. Fluctuations in business activity are poorly predictable and irregular. However, there are several concepts that explain the cyclical development of the economy and the time frame of these processes. Jean Sismondi was the first to draw attention to periodic crises. The "classics" denied the existence of cycles. They often associated the period economic downturn with external factors, such as war. Sismondi drew attention to the so-called “panic of 1825,” the first international crisis that occurred in peacetime. Robert Owen came to similar conclusions. He believed that economic decline occurs due to overproduction and underconsumption due to inequality in income distribution. Owen advocated government intervention and a socialist way of farming. The periodic crises characteristic of capitalism became the basis of the work of Karl Marx, who called for communist revolution.

Unemployment, economic recession and the role of government in solving these problems are the subject of study by John Maynard Keynes and his followers. It was this economic school that systematized ideas about crises and proposed the first consistent steps to eliminate their negative consequences. Keynes even tested them in practice in the USA during 1930-1933.

Main phases

Economic cycle can be divided into four periods. Among them:

• Economic recovery (revival). This period is characterized by growth in productivity and employment. The inflation rate is low. Buyers are eager to complete purchases that were put on hold during the crisis. All innovative projects quickly pay off.
• Peak. This period is characterized by maximum business activity. The unemployment rate at this stage is extremely low. Production capacity is at maximum capacity. However, negative aspects are also beginning to appear: inflation and competition are increasing, and the payback period for projects is increasing.
• Economic recession). This period is characterized by a decrease in entrepreneurial activity. Production and investment are falling, and unemployment is rising. Depression is a deep and prolonged decline.
• Bottom. This period is characterized by minimal business activity. At this stage there is the most low level unemployment and production. During this period, the surplus of goods that formed during peak business activity is consumed. Capital from trade flows into banks. This leads to a decrease in interest rates on loans. Usually this phase does not last long. However, there are exceptions. For example, the Great Depression lasted for ten years.

Thus, the economic cycle can be characterized as a period between two identical states of business activity. You need to understand that despite the cyclical nature, in the long term, GDP tends to grow. Economic concepts such as recession, depression and crisis do not disappear anywhere, but each time these points are located higher and higher.

Properties of Loops

The economic fluctuations under consideration differ both in nature and duration. However, they have several common features. Among them:

• Cyclicality is typical for all countries with market type management.
• Crises are an inevitable and necessary phenomenon. They stimulate the economy, forcing it to reach ever greater levels of development.
• Any cycle consists of four phases.
• Cyclicity is due not to one, but to many different reasons.
• Due to globalization, today's crisis in one country inevitably affects economic situation to another.

Classification of periods

The modern economy distinguishes more than a thousand different business cycles. Among them:

• Short-term cycles by Joseph Kitchin. They last about 2-4 years. Named after the scientist who discovered them. The existence of the data was initially explained by changes in gold reserves. However, today it is believed that they are due to delays in firms obtaining the information they need to make decisions. commercial information. For example, consider market saturation with a product. In this situation, producers must reduce production volumes. However, information about market saturation does not come immediately, but rather with a delay. This leads to a crisis due to the appearance of surplus goods.
• Medium-term cycles of Clément Juglar. They were also named after the economist who discovered them. Their existence is explained by the delay between making decisions on the volume of investment in fixed capital and the direct creation of production capacity. The duration of Juglar cycles is about 7-10 years.
• Rhythms by Simon Kuznets. They are named after the Nobel laureate who discovered them in 1930. The scientist explained their existence demographic processes and fluctuations in the construction industry. However, modern economists consider the main reason for Kuznets' rhythms to be the renewal of technology. Their duration is about 15-20 years.
• Long waves They were discovered by the scientist after whom they were named in the 1920s. Their duration is about 40-60 years. The existence of K-waves is due to important discoveries and associated changes in the structure of social production.
• Forrester cycles lasting 200 years. Their existence is explained by changes in the materials and energy resources used.
• Toffler cycles last 1000-2000 years. Their existence is associated with fundamental changes in the development of civilization.

Causes

An economic downturn is an integral part of economic development. Cyclicity is due to the following factors:

• External and internal shocks. Sometimes they are called impulse effects on the economy. These are technological breakthroughs that can change the nature of farming, the discovery of new energy resources, armed conflicts and wars.
• Unplanned increase in investments in fixed capital and inventories of goods and raw materials, for example, due to changes in legislation.
• Changes in prices for production factors.
• Seasonal nature of harvesting in agriculture.
• Growing influence of trade unions, which means an increase in wages and an increase in job security for the population.

Economic growth decline: concept and essence

There is still no consensus among modern scholars as to what constitutes a crisis. In the domestic literature of the Soviet era, the dominant point of view was that economic downturns are characteristic only of capitalist countries, and with a socialist type of economic management, only “difficulties of growth” are possible. Today, there is a debate among economists as to whether crises are characteristic of the micro level. The essence of the economic crisis is manifested in the excess supply compared to aggregate demand. The recession manifests itself in massive bankruptcies, rising unemployment and a decrease in purchasing power population. A crisis represents an imbalance in the system. Therefore, it is accompanied by a number of socio-economic shocks. And to resolve them, real internal and external changes are required.

Functions of a crisis

Business cycle downturns are progressive in nature. It performs the following functions:

• Elimination or qualitative transformation of outdated parts of the existing system.
• Approval of initially weak new elements.
• Testing the system for strength.

Dynamics

During its development, the crisis goes through several stages:

• Latent. At this stage, the preconditions are just maturing; they have not yet broken through.
• Period of collapse. At this stage, contradictions gain strength, old and new elements of the system come into conflict.
• The period of mitigation of the crisis. At this stage, the system becomes more stable, and the prerequisites for economic recovery are created.

Conditions of economic recession and its consequences

All crises have an impact on social relations. During the recession government agencies become much more competitive than commercial ones in the labor market. Many institutions are becoming more corrupt, making the situation even worse. Popularity is also increasing military service due to the fact that it is becoming more difficult for young people to find themselves in civilian life. The number of religious people is also growing. The popularity of bars, restaurants and cafes is falling during the crisis. However, people are starting to buy more cheap alcohol. The crisis has a negative impact on leisure and culture, which is associated with a sharp drop in the purchasing power of the population.

Ways to overcome recessions

The main task of the state in a crisis is to resolve existing socio-economic contradictions and help the least protected segments of the population. Keynesians advocate active intervention in the economy. They believe that economic activity can be restored through government orders. Monetarists advocate a more market-based approach. They regulate the volume money supply. However, you need to understand that all these are temporary measures. Despite the fact that crises are an integral part of development, each company and the state as a whole must have a developed long-term program.

The cyclical nature of the economy is a special form of development with uneven economic growth at different periods, which are called stages or phases of the economic cycle.

The economic cycle includes four phases:

• crisis (recession, recession),
• depression (stagnation),
• revival (expansion),
• a rise ending in a boom or peak.

Thus, economic cycles or waves- These are periodic fluctuations in economic or business activity, during which a market economy passes from one phase to the next.

Let's consider the features of each phase of the economic cycle.

The phases of the business cycle are shown in the figure.

The first phase of the economic cycle is a crisis, i.e. a sharp disruption of the existing balance.

A crisis differs from an imbalance between supply and demand for a particular product or in any sector of the economy in that it arises as a general overproduction, accompanied by a rapid fall in prices, bankruptcies and shutdowns. manufacturing enterprises, height loan interest, unemployment.

A crisis is the most destructive phase of any industrial cycle. This is caused by its surprise for entrepreneurs; they, as a rule, are not ready for it. Therefore, the crisis has the character of a collapse. Before it, the economy was thriving in all respects, everyone was making big profits, and then a crisis began, and the foundations were collapsing not in just one industry, but in all of them at the same time.

In the downturn phase of the economic cycle, demand begins to decline, while supply remains at the same level. Enterprises operate by producing products in larger volumes than required by the current market situation. The market turns out to be overflowing with goods, demand is rapidly decreasing, but production continues, although the size inventory are already very large. A rapid drop in prices begins, interrupting the capital circulation mechanism. The crisis of non-payments, lack of cash, and difficulties with sales lead to a belated but rapid curtailment of production, which leads to an increase in unemployment and a decrease in the purchasing power of society, which further complicates sales.

A period of collapses begins, enterprises close, banks “burst”, as loan defaults are widespread. During the crisis phase of the economic cycle, unemployment increases sharply, reaching its critical point. Naturally, in such conditions no one thinks about investment. Firms are unable to pay current payments, as capital is “frozen” in the form of unsold goods.

At this stage of the economic cycle, in a recession, there is a general pursuit of money, so the loan fee - the loan interest rate - is rapidly growing. Collapses stock exchanges, a wave of bankruptcies and business closures mark the end of the crisis and the beginning of the depression. The recession presents such a bleak picture. The actual recession phase in the economic cycle usually does not last long; the crisis looks long-lasting if it is combined with depression.

Depression (stagnation)- This is a phase of the economic cycle in which some stabilization of the situation occurs. “Depression is a period of adaptation of economic life to new conditions and needs, a phase of finding a new equilibrium.”

The crushing fall stops, since there is nowhere else to “fall”. Macro economic indicators, prices, wages, unemployment stabilize at a certain level. After the decline ends, a growth trend does not appear immediately, since production is carried out on a narrowed base. This is due to the fact that manufacturers are afraid to expand production due to a lack of confidence that there will be sufficient demand for the products produced.

During the depression phase of the economic cycle, confidence in a stable market environment is difficult to restore. Entrepreneurs look around with caution, even after some stabilization of demand, afraid to invest additional funds in their business. This phase is long-lasting and may be the longest in the entire economic cycle. Stagnation can last from several months to several years.

With general stagnation in the economy, only one indicator continues to change: the interest rate is decreasing due to the fact that the “surviving” entrepreneurs have free cash due to low production costs, because wages have frozen at their lowest point. If we take the classic version of the economic cycle, then in this phase the interest rate on money loans drops to its lowest point within the given cycle.

During the depression stage, prices stabilized at low levels stimulate consumption and the economic cycle continues. As a result of increased demand for civilian goods, demand for means of production also increases. But the crisis showed the insolvency of fixed capital in a technical and technological sense. To renovate it, the first investments are made, and if they are successful, the level of investment begins to slowly increase. Production is starting to slowly pick up. The next phase of the economic cycle begins - the recovery stage.

Revival– this phase of the economic cycle is characterized, first of all, by the expansion of production of means of production. Therefore, the impulse begins with enterprises producing equipment and elements of fixed capital. “The revival phase is a phase of slow growth in production caused by the first successful investments, a gradual increase in prices, entailing an increase in wages, an increase in the level of employment, and profits. The reaction to this is an increase in interest rates.”

A characteristic feature of this phase of the economic cycle is the absence of clear boundaries for the beginning of the phase. This is due to the fact that after a depression, various sectors of the economy begin to emerge from it after different periods of time. During the period of recovery, entrepreneurs dare to take their first steps forward, discovering that the risk is completely justified, and investment yields profit. Production expands following the growth in demand, unemployment decreases, and wages rise. At some point, economic indicators reach pre-crisis levels, and then the next phase of the economic cycle begins - recovery.

It is the achievement of the pre-crisis level of production that marks the end of the recovery and the beginning of the recovery phase of the economic cycle.

Climb– all economic indicators begin to increase at a much faster rate than in the previous phase. Prices begin to rise, but they are compensated by an increase in wages; as a result, the entire volume of output is absorbed by the growing demand of the population. However, in this phase of the economic cycle, the condition must be met that the rate of price growth exceeds the rate of wage growth. The consequence is an increase in employment, and labor resources become the only limiting factor further development. "Acceleration economic development can also be seen in waves of innovation, the emergence of a mass of new goods and new enterprises, in rapid growth capital investments, stock prices and other valuable papers, interest rates, prices and salaries. Everyone produces and trades at a profit."

Naturally, this cannot continue indefinitely, and at some point the rise phase ends at the highest point of the economic cycle, called a peak or boom. During this phase, discoveries are made that allow the economy to reach its new level within a given economic cycle, but the introduction of new technologies inevitably leads to an increase in production costs, which results in an increase in prices for manufactured goods without an increase in the level of wages. This leads to a decline in consumer opportunities. The disproportion between supply and demand is growing. The economic boom abruptly turns into a crisis throughout economic system, the economic cycle ends and a new one begins.

The paradox of the recovery phase lies in the fact that after the difficult overcoming of the crisis and its consequences, the economy, within the framework of the economic cycle, through the development of crisis factors, is rapidly moving towards a new crisis.

New features of economic cycle phases

Currently, economic cycles and crises in countries with developed market received new features and characteristics. The foundation for this was the anti-crisis policy of the state, applied in all countries following the capitalist path of development, and the development of international integration, the socialization of production and capital. Currently, the crises in Western countries are different from the Russian crises. The following features of the modern economic cycle can be highlighted.

Firstly, crises have become much more frequent, the duration of cycles has decreased to 5–7 years. IN late XIX– in the first half of the twentieth century, the duration of cycles was 11–12 years.

Secondly, the nature of the onset of cycle phases has changed. In the past, phases of the cycle, such as crisis or recovery, occurred at different countries at different times. Due to this, the destructive power of the cycle was less than at present, when the phases of the cycle occur simultaneously in most countries. This is due in large part to the fact that, as a result of increased integration national economies A crisis in one country creates a crisis in other countries. A kind of chain reaction is happening in the business world.

Thirdly, as a result of the policy of countercyclical regulation, the entire course of the cycle changed. Sharp boundaries disappeared, phases began to smoothly transition into one another. This policy also determines the phenomenon of “falling out” of some phases from the course of the cycle. For example, after a crisis, a recovery could immediately occur, bypassing the depression phase (Fig. 2).

Smoothing of economic cycles is the result of the application of countercyclical regulation

Fourthly, since the late 60s. The cyclical crisis is accompanied by rising inflation. Unemployment is becoming chronic and affecting new categories of workers. In fact, a new type of crisis economy has emerged - a stagflationary economy.

Fifth, there has been a change in the nature of crises. After a series of cycles with weak crises and short-term depression or no depression at all, a crisis occurs that covers all spheres and sectors of the economy. The power of the crisis is enormous, and all countries are involved in it.

Features of economic development cycles

An important feature of cyclical fluctuations is the difference in fluctuations in levels of employment and output in industries producing capital goods and durable goods, and industries aimed at producing non-durable goods. The former react to cyclic fluctuations with much greater force than the latter. The reasons for this lie in the following.

1. The purchase of new equipment or durable goods can be postponed, since they are not essential items and demand for them is sharply reduced.
2. In addition, there are a small number of firms in the capital goods market at the same time, and this oligopolistic nature of the market allows management to quickly reduce the number hired workers and production volumes during recessions.
3. At the same time, prices for their products remain approximately at pre-crisis levels.
4. The level of employment and production volumes in enterprises producing non-durable products cannot be subject to strong fluctuations, since the markets for these goods are more highly competitive and firms cannot counteract lower prices by reducing the number of employees and the volume of output.

Economic cycles have never been similar to one another; each of them has its own characteristics.

Some phases may be missing in cycles; for example, a crisis may be immediately followed by a recovery.

Between crises, the business world does not remain calm. The economy may experience major or relatively minor downturns and disturbances. In relation to economic cycles on this occasion, “German researchers have taken root the term pre-crisis (Vоrkrise) - a short-term phenomenon, but often heralding the approach of a catastrophe.”

There are the following main types of crises:

• cyclic,
• intermediate,
• partial,
• industry,
• structural.

The paradox of crises is that in this phase of the economic cycle, not only the limit of development is revealed, but also the impetus for further development of the economy. This is a kind of “stimulant” with destructive properties and consequences, after the onset of which, willy-nilly, we have to create new economic realities.

During the crisis phase of the economic cycle, the motives for reducing production costs first sharply appear and new opportunities are sought for this. Then there is an awareness of the need to update production and economic activities on a new technical and technological basis. Having marked the end of one economic cycle, the crisis begins the next one in this way.

Crisis and depression are always followed by recovery. As a result of crises, the economy does not collapse completely, but moves to a qualitatively new level of development.

Types of economic cycles

In economic life, there are a variety of fluctuations that are objective in nature. Of these, four types of economic cycles most used by economists can be distinguished.

1. Renewal cycles for individual capital elements are 2–4 years.
2. Fixed capital renewal cycles are 7–12 years.
3. Renewal cycles for parts of buildings and structures are 18–25 years.
4. Cycles associated with demographic processes and agricultural production – 45–50 years.

The renewal cycles of individual elements of capital are called Kitchin cycles. These are small cycles that are associated with fluctuations in global gold reserves. Construction cycles are called Kuznets cycles, and they are associated with the periodic renewal of dwellings and certain types of industrial structures.

Main interest for business world represent Juglar cycles associated with the renewal of fixed capital. This type of economic cycle has other names: business cycle, industrial or production cycle. When studying economic cycles, economists paid attention to the effect of greater production growth national income at relatively lower capital investments. This effect is called acceleration.

The essence of the accelerator is that an increase in demand for consumer goods leads to an increasing demand for means of production, and, consequently, for investment. Acceleration generates, on the one hand, instability in the economy, on the other hand, during periods of recovery and recovery, it contributes to the growth of capital investments, which accelerates the cycle. But in the phases of crisis and depression, due to the existence of the accelerator, the destructive power of the recession increases, because the reduction in investment outstrips the reduction in production.

The accelerator is the ratio of investment to production growth or national income and is expressed by the formula:

Where V is an accelerator, I is an investment, D is an income or finished products, t – corresponding year.

The theory of long-term or " long waves"was developed by the Russian scientist N.D. Kondratiev in the 20s of the twentieth century. According to it, in the history of economic development, periods of about fifty years with accelerated or slow development can be distinguished. After analyzing data for 140 years, Kondratiev identified three cycles of economic development with "upward" or "downward" waves.

Upward wave - since the late 80s. XVIII century to 1810–1817

Downward wave – from 1810–1817. until the period 1844–1851

Upward wave - from 1844–1851. until the period 1870–1875.

Downward wave - from 1870–1875. until the period 1890–1896

Upward wave – from 1890–1896. until the period 1914–1920.

Downward wave - from 1914 to 1920.

If we follow his theory further, the lowest point of the downward wave will be right at the period of the Great Depression. And then during a serious crisis in the mid-70s. XX century. Kondratiev explained the existence of large cycles by different periods of functioning of economic goods, the production of which also requires spending different times, especially on the accumulation of capital for their creation. Another breakthrough in scientific and technological progress marks the beginning of a new cycle. Then, during the rise stage, the products of this breakthrough are widely introduced.

If we analyze the long Kondratiev waves, we can notice the following feature: industrial cycles occurring during the period of an upward wave are characterized by long and powerful rises and relatively short and weak depressions. At the same time, industrial cycles of a downward wave have completely opposite characteristics.

Research into the patterns of long-term economic development has made it possible to generalize them into the theory of technological structures.

A technological structure is an integral complex of technologically related industries and corresponding technical and economic paradigms, the periodic process of sequential replacement of which determines the “long-wave” rhythm of modern economic growth.

The chronology of technological structures corresponds to Kondratieff’s theory of long waves; according to this, the following types of economic cycles or waves are distinguished:

1. The first wave (1785-1835) is the first technological structure based on textile production technologies.
2. The second wave (1830-1890) is the second technological structure, formed on the basis of steam engines, railway and water transport based on them, as well as ferrous metallurgy and machine tool building.
3. The third wave (1880-1940) is the third technological structure, the core of which was the electric motor and steel production.
4. The fourth wave (1930-1990) is the fourth technological structure based on the internal combustion engine and petrochemical production.
5. The fifth wave (1985-2035 presumably) is the fifth technological structure, formed on the basis of the semiconductor industry and technologies for the production of microelectronic components, as well as information technologies and biotechnology.

During each structural crisis global economy and every depression that accompanies the process of replacing dominant technological structures, new opportunities for economic success open up. Countries that were leaders in the previous period are faced with a depreciation of capital and the qualifications of those employed in industries of an obsolete technological structure, while countries that have managed to create the groundwork in the formation of production and technological systems of a new technological structure find themselves as centers of attraction for capital released from obsolete industries. Each time a change in dominant technological structures is accompanied by serious shifts in international division labor, updating the composition of the most prosperous countries.

Cyclicity can be considered as one of the ways of self-regulation market economy. Cyclicity is the fundamental basis for the development of not only a market economy, but also of society as a whole. If cyclicality did not exist, then the development of the entire society would stop somewhere at the level of the Middle Ages.

Literature

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2. Zhuravleva G.P. Economic theory. – M.: INFRA-M, 2011
3. Galperin V. Macroeconomics. – St. Petersburg: Economic school, 2007
4. Sazhina M.A. Economic theory. – M.: INFRA-M, 2007.
5. Shishkin A.F. Economic theory: In 2 books. Book 1. – M.: VLADOS, 2002.
6. Economic theory. / Ed. V.D. Kamaeva. – M.: VLADOS, 2004.
7. Salikhov B.V. Economic theory. – M.: Dashkov and K, 2014.

In the period from mid-1907 to the beginning of 1910, there was a decline in the workers' and peasants' movement, and the number of political parties decreased.

In 1908, 176 thousand workers went on strike, in 1909 - 64 thousand, and in 1910 - only 47 thousand. The share of political strikes by 1910 fell to 8%. If during the revolution of 1905-1907. more than 3/4 of workers' strikes ended in victory and the demands of the strikers were satisfied, then by 1910 more than 60% of strikes ended in defeat. In 1906-1910 497 trade unions were closed and 664 trade unions were denied registration. However, the peasant movement remained at a fairly high level, expressed in resistance to the forced implementation of Stolypin’s agrarian reform.

The number of political parties and their members has sharply decreased. The number of liberal-bourgeois and even right-wing parties decreased by 2-3 times, the left - by 5-7 times. Many members of the Socialist Revolutionary and Social Democratic parties were imprisoned and sent into exile, others emigrated abroad. In the left parties there was confusion, vacillation and infighting on programmatic and tactical issues. The “initiative minority” of the Socialist Revolutionaries is required to concentrate all efforts on the terrorist struggle against the government.

Two opposing currents arose in Social Democracy. Some (the “liquidators”, both Bolsheviks and Mensheviks), under the influence of increasing political repression in the country, demanded the liquidation of the underground party and the concentration of all forces on legal activities, mainly in the Duma, others (“otzovists”, mainly Bolsheviks), on the contrary, demanded cessation of all legal activities, first of all, the recall of its deputies from the Duma in order to preserve the underground party organization. But a significant part of the Bolsheviks (supporters of V.I. Lenin) decisively opposed both, demanding a reasonable combination of legal and illegal forms of struggle.

A characteristic episode for that time was the emergence among the radical intelligentsia of the philosophical and ethical movement of “God-building”, whose representatives advocated the creation of a new religion in contrast to Orthodoxy - the “religion of work”, which would consist in the deification of the highest human qualities and aspirations. A prominent ideologist of this movement was A.V. Lunacharsky. A. M. Gorky then expressed similar ideas to his in works of art.

The liberal intelligentsia, which belonged mainly to the Cadet Party, declared itself with the appearance in 1909, on the initiative of M. O. Gershenzon, of the collection "Milestones". The authors of the articles in the collection were the editor himself and other outstanding thinkers and public figures - “legal Marxists” N. A. Berdyaev, S. N. Bulgakov, P. B. Struve, A. S. Izgoev (Lande), B. A. Kistyakovsky and S. L. Frank. The appearance of this collection caused a sensation. The press responded to it with more than 200 critical articles.

The theme of the collection is an analysis of the role of the intelligentsia in the Russian liberation movement. The authors of "Vekhi" saw the "crisis" engulfing the intelligentsia, pointed out the error of the path they had chosen, and held them responsible for the "tragedy of the Russian revolution." They called on the intelligentsia to self-criticism, repentance, reflection, self-examination, demanded a radical reform of the “intellectual consciousness”, in which the “purifying fire of philosophy” was to play a significant role, called for a “synthesis

knowledge and faith,” to “personal self-improvement.” “You need to repent,” the authors of the collection wrote, “that is, to reconsider, change your mind and condemn your previous mental life in its depths and bends in order to be reborn to a new life.”

The year 1910 was marked by a new socio-political upsurge in the country. In the summer for many industrial centers A wave of strike movement swept across Russia. A strong impetus for the sharp growth of the labor movement was the shooting of striking workers on April 4, 1912 at the Lena gold mines, as a result of which 270 people were killed and 250 were wounded. The Lena events caused an explosion of indignation throughout the country: more than 300 thousand workers took part in the protest movement.

The village also began to move. In 1912, 160 peasant protests were registered - one and a half times more than in 1911. The movement was predominantly agrarian in nature: the peasants, as in 1905-1907, again began to destroy the lordly estates and seize the landowners' lands.

In the fall of 1912, elections took place in IV State Duma. A noisy election campaign was carried out, which became an arena of political struggle between parties and movements of various directions, speaking with their own political programs.

438 deputies were elected to the IV Duma. In its party composition it differed little from the Third Duma. When the Octobrists lost 32 parliamentary seats, the previous two majorities in the Duma were preserved - the right-wing Octobrist - 283 deputies (184 right-wing, 99 Octobrists) and the Octobrist-Cadet majority (99 Octobrists, 58 Cadets and the 47 progressives and 21 nationalists who joined them). However, the Fourth Duma turned out to be somewhat “to the left” of the third - not so much in terms of party composition, but in terms of the position taken by the deputies to strengthen the opposition and their attitude towards the government. As a result, a liberal majority was formed in the IV Duma more often than in the III Duma. M.V. Rodzianko was elected Chairman of the IV Duma, who held this post throughout its existence.

1912 1914 characterized by the growth of the bourgeois opposition, the desire of the big bourgeoisie for political consolidation and influence on state affairs. Representatives of the Progressive Party set the tone. One of its leaders, influential in Moscow merchant circles P. P. Ryabushinsky, in his speech on September 2, 1912 at the meeting of the Moscow merchants, openly stated that it was time for the merchants (meaning large entrepreneurs) to become the “premier class” instead of “degenerate noblewomen ".

The Progressive Party set itself the task of uniting liberal opposition groups and movements in the struggle for the political dominance of the Russian bourgeoisie. Subsequent events showed that it was not able to become a major political force, because it still represented a relatively small social stratum, not experienced in politics and, unlike the Western European bourgeoisie, did not have either traditions or experience of political struggle.

Every year, approximately 45 thousand people commit suicide due to losing their job or being unable to find a new one.

This conclusion was reached by scientists from the University of Zurich, who analyzed statistics from 2000 to 2011 in 63 countries.

As the lead author of the study, Dr. Carlos Nordt, told the site's correspondent, in Russia in the period from 2000 to 2007 there was a decline in unemployment and at the same time there was a decline in suicides due to this factor. “A similar trend was observed not only in Russia, but also in other European countries. But in Russia there were more suicides, says Nordt. “After 2008, unemployment in Russia, according to our data, began to grow, and the decrease in the number of suicides due to job loss no longer occurred.”

“According to WHO, more than 800 thousand people commit suicide every year around the world. Our research showed that every year approximately one in five suicides is associated with the loss of a job or the inability to find a new job,” says Carlos Nordt.

Based on the analysis of statistical data from 63 countries over a 12-year period, scientists identified four regions - North and South America, northern and western Europe, eastern and southern Europe and other countries (China and India were not included in this analysis because statistics were not available for these countries).

“Despite the fact that all these countries are very different in terms of economic development, culturally, etc., the trend that we found is the same for all countries - unemployment is associated with the risk of suicide. Moreover, this pattern appears for both men and women of any age,” says Nordt.

Even older people over 65, who are no longer in such demand in the labor market, are vulnerable.

Obviously, scientists add, that people who are emotionally unstable with a flexible psyche are at particular risk.

Another pattern that scientists were able to discover: the rise in suicide rates does not occur at the moment when a person loses his job, but six months before that. It is possible that changes that occur at work play a role here - restructuring, mass layoffs, i.e. an atmosphere is created that becomes unbearable for many people. At the same time, unemployment is perceived more severely in stable periods. economic periods, not during an economic downturn.

Perestroika in the USSR of 1985-1991 became a large-scale period in history, covering social, political and economic life in the state. Many consider perestroika to be the stage that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Prerequisites and main reasons for perestroika

The period of L. I. Brezhnev's reign, with the light hand of M. S. Gorbachev, was called the era of stagnation.

Rice. 1. Portrait of M. S. Gorbachev.

Despite the growth in the well-being of the population, the economy experienced a decline. There was a constant shortage of goods on the market. Only oil sales helped the USSR stay afloat financially, thanks to the embargo Arab countries. However, after the lifting of this embargo, oil prices began to fall rapidly. The Brezhnev government did not want or could not solve the accumulated economic problems, which could affect any change in the situation in the world. This showed the imperfection of the management system. In addition, the war in Afghanistan was also economically unprofitable for the Soviet Union. Capitalist world introduced sanctions against the USSR to stop hostilities, which reduced the amount of exports and affected the country's income.

It was these phenomena that showed the weakness of the Soviet economy.

Perestroika

March 1985 marked the beginning of the transition to new policy M. S. Gorbachev, who immediately made it clear that he would carry out a number of changes. The goals of perestroika were the reform of the country's socio-economic development, the rejuvenation of personnel in the political system, the easing of foreign policy and the rise of industry.

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In April 1985, Gorbachev first used the term “acceleration” of economic development. His tasks were administrative reforms, modernization of mechanical engineering and heavy industry. However, attempts to reform the economy did not produce the desired results and from acceleration it was decided to move on to global restructuring.

It was proposed to divide the restructuring into several stages.

Table “Events during the period of perestroika of the USSR”

The events carried out in the second stage split society into democrats and communists. This created some tension in the social environment, which gave rise to uncontrollability of the perestroika processes.

In 1985, Gorbachev proclaimed glasnost. Many victims of Stalin's repressions were acquitted, literary works of Solzhenitsyn and other dissidents began to be published, the program “Vzglyad” began to work on TV, the newspaper “Arguments and Facts” was published, many previously banned films (for example, “Heart of a Dog”) were released on television. The authorities allowed themselves to be criticized and did not take reactionary measures to harsh criticism.

Rice. 2. Portrait of Solzhenitsyn.

Perestroika began in foreign policy. Soviet Union took a course towards “warming” relations with the West. The Cold War was effectively lost when Gorbachev made significant concessions to the United States, hoping for the lifting of sanctions. During negotiations with US President Reagan, an agreement was concluded on disarmament, and in 1989 all Soviet troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan.

Rice. 3. Withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.

At the second stage of perestroika, the set goals for the country's transition to democratic socialism were never achieved. The third stage took place entirely outside state control and was left to chance.

The growth of political contradictions in the second stage of perestroika also led to national confrontation. The peripheral republics increasingly began to declare their disobedience to Moscow. Starting from the second half of 1989, a parade of sovereignties took place in the country. Local authorities declared priority local laws before the All-Union, if they were in conflict with each other. In March 1990, Lithuania announced its withdrawal from the USSR. In the same year, the position of President of the USSR was approved, who was elected by general direct popular vote. This reform failed to achieve positive results.4.6. Total ratings received: 1580.