What is the essence of the Chinese economic miracle. China's economic miracle. Export-oriented industrial policy

China's economy has overtaken the United States in terms of GDP, converted into dollars at purchasing power parity, follows from the IMF's database of macroeconomic forecasts updated on October 7. And although the Celestial Empire has not yet pulled ahead in terms of GDP in market exchange rates, few doubt that this is only a matter of time. RBC recalls the components of China's rapid economic success, which is based on the principle of "hurry up slowly."

"Architect of reforms" Deng Xiaoping

In 1978, the leader of the Communist Party of China, Deng Xiaoping, together with his associates, launched a reform policy aimed at opening up to the outside world, building a socialist market economy, and creating a "small welfare" society.

In most sectors of the economy, the role of the government has been reduced, leaders have been given more managerial powers, and the role of the private sector has increased. The PRC allowed international trade and foreign direct investment. These initiatives improved the standard of living of most of China's population and later supported comprehensive reforms.

With increasing incomes, incentives, marked growth in the service sector, and a flourishing industrial sector, some features of a consumer society began to emerge in the PRC.

An army of cheap workers

For many years, cheap labor ensured the low cost of Chinese goods. Low-skilled and low-productivity labor forms the basis of the country's cheap labor resources. The Chinese village remains a key supplier of labor in the global market.

Undervalued yuan

Until 1974, the yuan exchange rate against foreign currencies was established mainly through the pound sterling, as well as the Hong Kong dollar. Since August 1974, a daily quotation of the yuan against the US dollar and other currencies was introduced on the basis of a currency basket. Since 1994, Beijing has mothballed the yuan at $1/8.27 yuan. West accuses China of understating exchange rate through accumulation foreign exchange reserves, which serves as a tool for stimulating export-oriented growth and gives additional competitive advantages to Chinese goods.

"Technology in exchange for the market"

In the early 1990s, the PRC authorities proclaimed a policy of "technology in exchange for the market", which involved the concession of a part of the domestic market to transnational corporations in exchange for the transfer of foreign technologies to China. Western corporations hastened to take advantage of the extremely low cost of labor in China and massively transferred their production facilities to the Middle Kingdom, and then their research centers.

Gone are the days when Chinese production was associated exclusively with cheap clothing and counterfeiting: now China is the largest exporter and manufacturer of goods, the “world factory” from whose assembly lines the most popular electronic gadgets come off.

Today, there are 53 zones of high and new technologies in the country, more than 70 scientific and technical zones for specialists who have received education abroad

The stability of the political system

In China, political stability has been ensured for many decades, the continuity of power is maintained, which consists in the regular and organized change of the country's political leadership.

The 18th Congress of the Communist Party of China, held in November 2012, marked the beginning of the fourth generational change of leadership since Deng Xiaoping - Xi Jinping was elected general secretary of the ruling party. At the same time political leaders countries reaffirmed their commitment to building socialism with Chinese characteristics: promoting reform, adhering to the principle of openness, ensuring social justice, general prosperity and social harmony.

The party elite promised that the reform of the PRC's political system would continue, but the main emphasis would be on avoiding destabilization in the socio-political and economic spheres.

A gradualist approach to reform

In its economic policy, Beijing strictly adheres to a gradualist approach. Launching systemic reforms, China began not with political, but with market transformation while maintaining an authoritarian political system to minimize political risks. The evolutionary path of development was taken as a basis - the implementation of programs and plans was stretched for a long time. The forms of economic integration characteristic of developed countries were gradually integrated into the reforming economy, and were not planted in a fundamentally new environment.

Initially, China carried out a gradual deregulation of prices, and today it is implementing a gradual economic liberalization. The formation of the non-state sector proceeded from scratch, and not as a result of large-scale privatization. To this day, the PRC authorities are focused on balanced, high-quality, sustainable growth in the context of the progressive movement of reforms.

Export-oriented industrial policy

The sharp increase in exports is one of the main external factors for the growth of the Chinese economy. Chinese products have many competitive advantages in international market However, a clear strategy is needed for the success of foreign trade expansion. It is taken as a basis in the consistent export-oriented industrial policy pursued by the Chinese authorities, which consists in providing tax, credit, customs and other preferences to industries and enterprises aimed at foreign markets.

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One of the top news trends recent years- an economic miracle in China, which is developing so, directly, that from day to day it will put the United States in the pose of a "bottom", will have the most perverted of existing ways, yes, in parting, he will trample a clean rug near the apartment of an ordinary American with a combat boot of the Asian proletariat. By the way, it is not clear why our patriots are so sincerely happy that China will hypothetically inflate America. Well, China will pump it up, what do you have to do with it, huh? Or “I can’t do it myself - let at least someone do it”? Or do they see in him the unfulfilled ambitions of the Soviet Union?

A wonderful tale about the great economic miracle of China, I hear exactly as much as I live in this world!
China developed at an incredible pace 20 years ago.
It developed at the same incredible pace 10 years ago.

China has developed so actively that today everyone still goes to Israel for treatment, to study in Europe, to have fun in America, and directly the GDP per small soul of a little yellow man is more than two times lower than for a similar soul of a Russian.
What is development, you ask?
And dick knows, - I will answer!

Stories about the "incredible pace" developing China, there are exactly as many as, for example, stories about Europe decaying at an "incredible pace"; Russia, which has been rising from its knees for the third decade, but everything, something, will not rise in any way; US national debt, because of which the Pindos is about to perish in the abyss of the sea; the unreliability of the dollar, and so on. and so on.

Every day you hear stories that “China is already the second largest economy in the world!”. However, it is not entirely clear why a country with the second (!!!) economy of the world is not "DEVELOPED!", but only "Developing"? Why is France, which is not the second economy of the world, a developed one, and the second economy of the world, only a developing one? Really nobody was embarrassed by such a strange contradiction? And the answer is as simple as the sole in your sneaker: because there is no economic miracle in China! China will never reach the level of America! The entire economic rise of China looks impressive only against the backdrop of underdeveloped countries, and nothing more! Yes, China, indeed, today represents the most developed economy ... of the most underdeveloped countries. That's the whole secret of the "Economic Miracle"!

When someone once again raises the subject of China's magnificent flourishing, predicting for it world leadership and even the date of this leadership, it is always somehow inadvertently overlooked that the existing model of the country's development has already exhausted itself, and the necessary serious structural changes will be incompatible with the continuation of current pace economic growth. For the entire economic miracle of China is based only on the cheap labor of a billion Chinese themselves, who, for all this, do not produce, but only copy products. And they copy extremely poorly. And even now, their original cars are copies, albeit with a modified appearance. And China cannot offer civilization anything more worthy than cheap labor. And this is the main economic doom of these people.

There is nothing surprising in the rapid growth of the Chinese economy - this is a consequence of the belated industrial revolution. For the same reason until 2015 Russian economy also actively grew, albeit without such haste as the Chinese one. And, if the country has learned to produce (in the case of China - to fake), for example, cars, labor productivity in this industry begins to grow. The trouble with developing countries is that these are all one-time, inimitable events: after mastering technology, further growth ceases to have an equally large-scale aspiration to a brighter future. It is no coincidence that the current gap between developed and developing countries in terms of per capita income, although it has declined over the past decade, but as before, where the Frenchman buys marbled beef, the Chinese only lustfully swallows the saliva of food desire.

How actively this growth will develop is determined only and exclusively by the ability of such countries to adopt new ideas, knowledge and technologies developed by global technology leaders. Therefore, as the gap between the two groups of countries narrows, the growth of those who catch up will slow down, because. technologies that they have not yet mastered will be less and less.

So China's growth was based on industrial exports, but the country's trade surplus has reached a level that is an impossible task to surpass.
One of the rather large list of reasons is that China, despite all its economic achievements, still continues to develop due to the cheap labor of its inhabitants, who are ready to work for mere (compared to other developed countries) pennies. Therefore, even if China is the second economy in the world, even the first, it will never be equal to Japan. For, while on the one side of the planet a billion small yellow bodies fuck up in seven sweats without days off, and at the same time they are not able to earn even a pension, on the other side of the planet the streets are regulated by almost humanoid combat cyborgs-killers. Well, what is the use of the great Chinese economy in such situations?

It is impossible to survive at the expense of cheap labor in a progressive world for a long time. Because the Chinese workers themselves, who today are no longer satisfied with a cup of rice for a day of hard work, are rushing in the wake of world progress. Over time, they need to raise their wages, and therefore raise the cost of goods provided by China. If the rise in the cost of labor does not occur, then the rise of anti-state sentiments will inevitably begin to take place, resulting in popular riots. I specifically looked at the statistics of riots in China - every year there are more and more of them, the largest of which you could see at the end of the past year. Getting people to work without raising wages is possible only if they slide down to the level of North Korea. And the level of North Korea in itself means economic impotence. Therefore, like it or not, the cost of labor will rise.

And all this means that other countries in the region, ready to work cheaper, are beginning to delay this business for themselves. And China is losing on this and its exports are falling, as is its growth rate. The growth of wages and, accordingly, welfare will lead to an increase in the cost of locating production and, as a result, a decrease in foreign investment to country. China's economy grew quite recently at about 10-11% per year. Grew up on export to rich buyers, 98% of whom live in the developed western countries of Europe, America, Asia and Oceania. If these exports to these countries fall, then the percentage of growth decreases. Therefore, a much greater obstacle in the way economic development China sees other developing countries that over time will pull the blanket over themselves ... As soon as China raises prices a little, other primitive Asian states will occupy the niche of cheap labor, and the more actively they pull themselves up, the faster China's great economic miracle will burst like a soap bubble, left without a significant market share.

And since China has an export economy, it desperately needs not only cheap hands, but also a cheap currency. Cheap in relation to the currencies of those countries where it is exported. If the currency of the exporting country is expensive, then exports become expensive and the profit falls. And, therefore, this is precisely why China keeps the yuan artificially low and at the same time tied against the dollar, since its economy directly depends on this. A cheap currency gives its advantages for exports, but kills domestic consumption, due to the fact that inflation is growing and the country's means of payment weighs too little in real purchasing power. Have at the same time cheap currency for export and high purchasing power within the country is impossible. Either one or the other. That is why the Chinese are so thin.

Over the past 30 years, China's GDP has grown 20 times! However, this does not mean anything, because. Based on the results of the analysis of the situation by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), under the current development model, China needs a doubling of exports by 2020 to continue annual growth at the same level. This is impossible, at least, because world markets are already saturated with Chinese goods (more than 40% of which are exported), most large companies have already launched their production in the country, and for new investments, as mentioned above, China has to fight with its Asian neighbors with even lower labor costs. Under such conditions, at the initial pores, the explosion will always be stunning, because. The world has not yet been spoiled by your products, and no one competes with you. But after decades, dreams of a bright economic future come to an end: competitors begin to squeeze you from all sides, the whole world is filled with your products, and therefore the demand for it is not the same as 10 years ago. Come up with something new if you want to fight for a place in the sun.

Even if we assume that soon China will overtake, or even overtake the US in terms of GDP. And what, these two countries will be equal in economic power? Of course not. Not to mention the fourfold difference in population, GDP structure China is much less qualitative: if in the USA science-intensive, high-tech products of the first echelon and science-intensive services prevail, then in the Chinese economy the basis is mass production. China does not work for quality, but for quantity. And quantity will always outperform quality. And China, in order to achieve qualitative, not quantitative indicators, needs not 15 years, but it is scary to guess how much. Because the United States does not stand still and its gap from its main competitors in the field of high technologies is constantly increasing. Nails made in China, this is certainly good, but this is clearly not a high-tech production cycle, nor subtle high technology, nor development fundamental science, pharmaceutical and chemical industries that reign in developed countries. In addition, the Celestial Empire has a huge population, so in terms of total GDP, China may be the second after the United States, but in terms of national wealth per capita, it will be in the tail of the leading world powers for a long time to come.

So China, with all its economic vibes, will forever be hopelessly “developing”, and if nothing changes, then over time it will be a “rolling down” country, and then just shit. Due to the lack of innovation in economic and social progress.

Modernization is, of course, good. It seems to make it possible to catch up with the world leaders by introducing in their country the same methods of production as theirs. But, alas, such a strategy of catch-up development dooms the country to best case, to a secondary role in the world community. After all, while you are modernizing, borrowing the experience of developed countries, they inevitably go ahead due to innovations.

And so it will always be. Therefore, modernization is only a prerequisite, a preliminary condition for the transformation of an undeveloped country into a developed country. China has been rapidly and successfully modernizing for the past three decades, but it suffers from the most terrible innovative impotence, against which no famous Chinese herbs can help. So don't give in to irrational enthusiasm and fall into the trap of direct extrapolations about China.
And in the bottom line, we have what we have: the world almost completely ruled, rules and will rule for a very long time - HIS MAJESTY THE AMERICAN DOLLAR.

PS: Yesterday I wrote that sharp social, political and religious satire - there are signs of a developed society. While countries where they are afraid to joke about this topic on the air of the main channels, there are degenerate and backward states, since there is no development of society without self-irony and self-criticism. As a response, many began to cite shit-China with all its numerous shit-Chinese, they say, here you are - an advanced economy and the most developing country in the world, and they achieved everything without even knowing about any satire. Which prompted me to write this post. Tashchemta, I fucked in the mouth the “Great” economy, which cannot even provide its citizens with pensions.

MAIN FACTORS OF THE "CHINESE ECONOMIC MIRACLES" (LESSONS FOR RUSSIA)

Muravieva Valeria Alexandrovna

1st year student, IE and U, KuzGTU, Kemerovo

Pogorelaya Tatyana Anatolyevna

scientific adviser, associate professor of KuzGTU, Kemerovo

The outstanding economic successes of China are recognized all over the world and the whole world is looking forward to the situation in the Chinese economy, some with the expectation of a slowdown in its growth, while others, on the contrary, with the hope that growth will continue at the same pace, as a result of which China will play the role of a "locomotive » for the entire global economy.

As early as 1979, when China began to move along the path of reform, National economy was in deep crisis. The Chinese economist Feng Shaolei cites data that clearly characterizes the “starting” conditions for reforms: in terms of development indicators and per capita GDP, China was below 170th position in the world. GDP per capita was $190 per year (in the US - $18.4 thousand). The income of the population, calculated according to PPP, amounted to 978 dollars (112th place in the world). The Chinese worker's wage was less than 1% of that of the US and Japanese worker. The volume of Chinese exports before the reforms did not even reach 10 billion dollars (125 times lower than in 2007). China ranked 27th in the world in terms of foreign trade.

30 years later, in 2009, China overtook Germany and became the world's first in terms of exports and second in terms of imports. By 2010, China continued its rapid growth, surpassing Japan. Today it is the second largest economy in the world after the US and the first in terms of exports.

China's economy has developed especially rapidly (compared to the growth rate of the world economy) since 2000. Professor Sunn Hong in his article "Opening up reforms and the development of the Chinese economy" cites the following data: the growth of the world economy in 2001 was 4.3%; in 2002 - 1.6%; 2003 - 2.7%, and the growth of the Chinese economy during the same time has never fallen below 8.3% during the same time. It is worth noting that even in the crisis year of 2009, China's economic growth increased by 8.6%. And this at a time when the US economy fell by 2.5%, and the economy of the EU countries by 3.9%. According to Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman State Committee Development and Reform Commission of the PRC, in 2011 China's economic growth reached 9.3%. But in 2012, the slowest GDP growth over the past 13 years was recorded - 7.8%, although it should be noted that already in the fourth quarter it amounted to 7.9%. It was this fact that gave grounds to the Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, Wen Jiabao, to declare that the Chinese authorities are counting on a 7.5% increase in GDP in 2013. First of all, due to the restructuring of the economy. And the forecast of the World Bank for 2013 is even more optimistic - China's GDP will be 8.4%. At the same time, international rating agency Fitch Ratings downgraded GDP forecast China to 7.8% instead of the previously predicted 8%. Russian experts predict that China will be able to overtake the United States in terms of GDP by 2020.

Economists around the world are wondering about the reasons for China's economic miracle, because, despite the fact that recently there has been a trend towards a slight drop in growth rates, growth itself and other macroeconomic indicators in China continue to be among the highest in the world. Thus, industrial production in March 2012 rose by 11.95%, retail sales- by 15.2%, and investments in fixed assets on a quarterly basis - by 15.2%. Guo Xibao, director of the Center for Economic Development Research at Wuhan University, said at a Russian-Chinese conference that he did not see any miracle in this, that "any developing country can shoot" if the country's leadership can transform disadvantages into advantages. In the same place, G. Tsagolov suggested that the serious economic backwardness of the country not only did not prevent the Chinese miracle, on the contrary, it was the low start and the “lag effect” that allowed China to “shoot” in the last decade. Based on Guo Xibabo's "Why China's Economy Grows So Fast: An Analysis Based on the Lagging Advantage Theory", we were able to identify the following: advantages "lag effect", effectively used by China:

· Firstly, unlike developed countries, developing countries are experiencing a lack of capital, with a significant surplus of labor. The labor force makes the return of capital from lagging countries higher than that of developed ones, and therefore capital from developed countries begins to move intensively to developing ones;

· Secondly, to start using high technologies, China did not have to invest significant financial costs in the creation and development of new technologies, since it was possible to copy and widely use world scientific and technological achievements;

· Thirdly , the use of highly skilled foreign labor in joint ventures with foreign investors has ensured the wide dissemination of the most advanced experience for working in unified technological maps and transfer of all necessary information to Chinese specialists;

· fourthly , the ability to transfer the majority of the workforce from the agricultural sector to the industrial sector creates additional opportunity for a sharp increase in the pace (over 30 years of reforms, more than 200 million people flowed from agriculture to industry and services, providing 22.3% growth in labor productivity in the economy and 17.8% of GDP);

· fifth , differences in the effectiveness of the institutional environment between developed and developing countries also play into the hands of the laggards, who can borrow the best practices for creating and improving effective institutions.

Economic practice confirms that in the PRC these advantages were indeed recognized and used in a comprehensive manner. The Chinese leadership, starting with Deng Xiao Ping, has been constantly actively undertaking special measures to attract foreign investment, the volume of which in all important areas national economy became so significant that it allowed the country to accelerate the process of modernizing the economy as a whole. The volume of foreign direct investment has been constantly increasing and by 2010, China has accumulated more than 1.15 trillion. dollars of foreign direct investment. And in 2012, the slowdown in China's economic growth was by no means due to a slowdown in activity foreign investors- there was an increase in foreign direct investment: from the United States to China, 3.1 billion dollars were received (4.5% more than in 2011), from Japan - 7.4 billion dollars (increase - 16.35 %), from EU countries - 6.1 billion dollars (increase - 3.85%). Thus, foreign investment continues to play an important role in importing the most advanced technology to promote the large-scale modernization of the Chinese economy. Note that this has become the subject of close study by Russian researchers-economists, however, in business practice Chinese experience until almost taken into account.

Of course, innovations are indeed cheaper and more reliable to borrow than to acquire, and even more so than to create. At the same time, in China they are used very selectively and are not always in a hurry to master fundamentally new technologies acquired through imports. In 2012, in China, for 1 yuan spent on technology imports, only 7 fen were spent on their development. For comparison: Japan and South Korea, being at a level of development comparable to China, 5-8 times more funds are spent for the same purposes. Therefore, given the price-quality ratio, Chinese goods are still outperforming their competitors [Ibid.].

Foreign investors since the 1980s. attracted by cheap labor. Goods produced in establishments controlled by foreign companies, mainly went for export, and not for the domestic market, and the profitability of investments was determined by the success of export deliveries. This led to an increase in trade turnover. In order to reduce the cost of production and obtain additional profit, Chinese enterprises delimited the production of components and the creation final product. Investments in assembly plants have attracted a huge number of workers, and foreign managers have educated commercial qualities in the Chinese worker, which later influenced the independent development of private enterprises with a purely Chinese leadership. The Department of Asian and Pacific Cooperation of the Russian Foreign Ministry provides data that China is engaged in scientific and technical cooperation with more than 150 states. More than 3,000 research centers operate in the Chinese economy with the participation of foreign capital.

With the above in mind, it can be concluded that economic model in the PRC cannot be characterized as innovative as long as the main engines of the growth of the country's economy remain foreign investment in fixed capital and exports, and its own innovations play a limited role. That's why an important factor China's development has been accelerated by the government's support for its own R&D. The innovation course is interpreted as new national strategy . In China, the task has been set - by 2020 to become one of the states with an innovative economy, and by the middle of the century to become a leader in science and technology. According to the statistics of the Russian Foreign Ministry, today the number of scientists in China has reached 1.5 million people, and the number of patents received by Chinese scientists is growing by an average of 13-15% per year. In this, China is not inferior to the United States. It is not surprising that the world's fastest computer "TIANHE" was created in the innovative laboratories of the PRC, and in 2011 China became the second country in the world after Russia in terms of the total number of spacecraft launches, ahead of the United States.

Bibliography:

1. The World Bank. Annual report 2012 [Electronic resource] - Access mode. - URL: http://www.worldbank.org/2013/04.
2. Guo Sibao. Why China's economy is growing so fast: an analysis based on the theory of the benefits of delayed development [Electronic resource] - Access mode. - URL: www.opec.ru/1303650.html
3. The international rating agency has revised upward the outlook for GDP growth China [Electronic resource] - Access mode. - URL: finance. everblog.ru / 2012 / 06.
4. Nasibov I. Scientific and technical potential of China: results and development prospects [Text] / I. Nasibov // World economy and international relations. - 2012. - No. 10. - S. 79-83.
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Just four decades ago, a country like China had a rather weak, lagging economy. Happened over the years economic reforms that made the country's economy more liberal are considered to be Chinese economic miracle. The pace of economic growth over the past 30 years is incredible and astonishing: on average, 10% per year increased country's GDP, and GDP per capita grew by 9%. Today, China occupies a leading position among the world's economies. Let us consider how this country managed to achieve such indicators, how the economic miracle happened, what are its causes and what conditions preceded it.

China in the middle of the twentieth century

After the end of World War II, China stood at a crossroads and did not know what to choose: a liberal capitalist or, following the example of the great power of the USSR, a socialist path of development. The civil war that shook the country until 1949 led to the secession of the island of Taiwan and the establishment of the People's Republic of China, led by Mao Zedong.

With the advent of the Communist Party, the painful construction of socialism begins: the nationalization of property and the implementation of agrarian reform, the implementation five year plans development of the economy ... Accepting assistance from the USSR and focusing on the political and economic system of its socialist neighbor, China is industrializing the economy. Sometimes it was necessary to resort to harsh and uncompromising methods.

"Great Leap Forward"

However, after 1957, relations between China and the USSR cooled down, and Mao Zedong, who did not share the views of the then Soviet leadership, decides to implement new program dubbed the "Great Leap Forward". The goal of the ambitious program was a dramatic development of the economy, but the new direction was unsuccessful and had tragic consequences for both the people and the Chinese economy as a whole.

In the 60s, the country is experiencing a severe famine, a cultural revolution and mass repression. Many state instruments ceased to function, the communist party system collapsed. But in the early 70s, the government took a course to restore party organizations and improve relations with the United States. After the death of the "Great Pilot" Mao Zedong in 1976, the country found itself in a difficult economic situation, unemployment increased, and a card system was introduced.

From the end of 1976, Hua Guofeng became the head of China. But the actual reins of power are taken over by Deng Xiaoping, a politician who fell into the millstones of the Cultural Revolution and was restored to the post of Vice Premier of China in 1977.

Decisive plenum

Considering the Great Leap Forward program to be largely erroneous, Deng Xiaoping, relying on the support of the Communist Party, begins to implement a program to modernize the economy. In 1978, at the next plenum of the Communist Party, the course towards a socialist market economy was officially proclaimed, in which two economic systems would be combined: planned-distributive and market.

The new government path is called the course of reform and opening up. Xiaoping's liberal reforms are based on the gradual transition of economic structures to market rails and the preservation of the communist system. assured that all transformations would take place under the leadership of the Communist Party, and the dictatorship of the proletariat would be strengthened.

Highlights of transformations and reforms

If we talk about new reforms briefly, then the Chinese economy should be focused on export production and massive attraction of investments. From that moment on, the Celestial Empire proclaims itself a country open to expanding ties with other states, which has attracted foreign investors. And the liberalization of foreign trade and the creation of special territories economic zones for foreign entrepreneurs led to an unprecedented increase in export performance.

First, Xiaoping reduces state control over many sectors of the economy and expands the managerial functions of business leaders. The development of the private sector was encouraged in every possible way, there are stock markets. Serious transformations affected the agricultural sector and industry.

Four stages

In the course of the entire reform of the Chinese economy, four temporary stages can be distinguished, carried out under a certain slogan. The first (from 1978 to 1984) stage, involving transformations into countryside, the creation of special economic zones, had the following slogan: “The basis is Planned Economy. Supplement - market regulation.

The second (from 1984 to 1991) stage is the shift of attention from the agricultural sector to urban enterprises, expanding their field of activity and independence. Market pricing is introduced, reforms are social sphere, science, education. This stage is called "Planned Commodity Economy".

The third (from 1992 to 2002) stage was held under the slogan "Socialist market economy". At this time, a new economic system is being formed, which implies the further development of the market and determines the instruments of macroregulation. state control on a new basis.

The fourth (from 2003 to the present day) is designated as the "Stage of improving the socialist market economy."

Transformations in the agricultural sector

The Chinese economic miracle began with transformation. The essence of the agrarian reform was the abolition of the then existing people's communes and the transition to a family contract with a single collective property. This meant the transfer of land to Chinese peasants for a period of up to fifty years, part of the production received from this land was given to the state. Free pricing for peasant products was also introduced, and market trade in agricultural products was allowed.

As a result of these transformations Agriculture received an impetus for development and came out of stagnation. The new established system of collective property and family contracts qualitatively raised the standard of living of the peasants and helped to solve the food problem.

Industrial transformation

economic system industrial enterprises was almost freed from directive planning, they were supposed to be turned into self-sustaining enterprises with the possibility of independent marketing of products. Large strategic enterprises remain under the control of the state, while medium and small enterprises are given the right not only to manage their business, but also to change their form of ownership. All this contributed to the fact that the state focused on improving the state of affairs in large state-owned enterprises and did not interfere with the development of the private sector.

The imbalance in the production of heavy industry and consumer goods is gradually decreasing. The economy is starting to turn towards growth in the production of goods for domestic consumption, especially since the large population of China contributes to this.

Special economic zones, tax and banking systems

By 1982, as an experiment, some coastal regions of China declared themselves special economic zones, and after the 1984 plenum, 14 cities in total were approved as special economic zones. The purpose of the formation of these zones was to attract foreign investment in China's industry and the development of new technologies, accelerate the economic development of these regions, and enter the country's economy into the international arena.

The reforms also affected the tax, banking and monetary system. Value-added taxes are being introduced, a single income tax for organizations. Most of the revenues began to flow to the central budgets thanks to new system distribution between local administrations and the central government.

The banking system of the country was divided into state banks, conducting economic policy governments and other financial institutions commercial basis. Courses foreign currencies now they set off on a "free float", which was regulated only by the market.

The fruits of the reforms

The Chinese economic miracle begins to appear already in the late 80s. The results of the transformations had a qualitative impact on the lives of ordinary citizens. Unemployment rates are reduced by 3 times, retail trade turnover is doubling. By 1987 the volume of foreign trade had quadrupled compared with 1978. Billions of dollars of foreign investment were attracted, and by 1989 there were 19,000 joint ventures.

Speaking of China, it manifested itself in a decrease in the share of heavy industry and an increase in the production of consumer goods and light industry. The service sector is expanding significantly.

It struck with unprecedented growth rates: 12-14% in the early 90s. Many experts during these years spoke about the phenomenon of the Chinese economic miracle and predicted that China would become the economic superpower of the 21st century.

Negative Consequences of Reforms

Like any coin, the Chinese reforms had two sides - positive and negative. One of these negative points was the threat of inflation, which followed as a side effect of productivity growth after reforms in the agricultural sector. Also, as a result of the price reform, the situation in the industrial sector worsened. Unrest began, resulting in student demonstrations, as a result of which General Secretary Hu Yaobang was dismissed.

Only in the early 90s, the course of acceleration and recovery proposed by Deng Xiaoping economic environment helped overcome the overheating of the economy, create a system to control inflation and the development of the country.

The Chinese economic miracle and its causes

So, now for the reasons. Studying the phenomenon of China's economic miracle, many experts put forward the following reasons for the economic recovery:

1. The effective role of the state in economic transformations. At all stages of the reforms, the country's administrative apparatus adequately responded to the tasks of economic modernization.
2. Significant labor resources. Demand in the Chinese labor market is always greater than supply. This keeps wages low while productivity is high.
3. Attracting foreign investment in China's industry, as well as in high-tech industries.
4. An export-oriented development model that made it possible to increase the knowledge intensity of the economy and the development of the latest technologies at the expense of foreign exchange earnings.

However, China's main economic progress has been the rejection of "shock therapy" and the gradual formation of a market mechanism that has restored the economy through effective market regulation.

China today

What has China's four decades of wise reform led to? Let's consider the main indicators of the economy further. Today's China is a powerful nuclear and space power with a modern industry and developed infrastructure.

Some numbers

In the three quarters of 2017, China's GDP reached about 60 trillion yuan. This is 6.9% in annual terms. The increase in China's GDP in 2017 is 0.2% over the period last year. The share in GDP of agricultural, industrial sectors, the service sector by an average of 5-7%. In 2017, the growth trend of innovative and high-tech sectors of the economy continues.

In general, despite a slight slowdown in growth, the Chinese economy (it is rather difficult to briefly describe this phenomenon) today maintains the potential for long-term growth and continues structural reforms.

Forecasts for the development of the Chinese economy

Having created a market mechanism in the economy, the Chinese government plans to further improve it, while showing the benefits of socialism. However, experts make both optimistic and pessimistic forecasts for the development of the Chinese economy. Some are sure that it will be difficult to resist the growing economic, political and social problems while maintaining communist power. Growing emigration to the developed countries, the gap between rich and poor can reduce the effectiveness of state power and the role of the party. In contrast to them, other experts argue that, after all, a hybrid of socialism and the capitalist market is possible due to the originality of the Chinese nation and the mentality that is unique to it. It remains only to say that time will put everything in its place.

The onset of literally every New Year instills in the population faith in change. Gradually, faith may dry up, but at the same time, new aspirations appear regarding the onset of the next year. Next year, they say, life will be much better than this one. Tomorrow will be better, today and yesterday. This is how human psychology works: to believe in the best. And while we continue to firmly believe in the unprecedented breakthrough of our state towards a brighter future, someone is following the path of calm development, not rushing from heat to cold. In this context, we are talking about our neighbor, the People's Republic of China.

But is this development as cloudless as it may seem from the outside. Let's weigh all the pros and cons of the Chinese economic miracle, which is being talked about all over the world by politicians, economists, and all those who are used to paying attention to the global financial situation.

Only in the last four years (since the beginning of the notorious global crisis), the Chinese economy has shown such a thing that the noteworthy developed countries swallowed their saliva. Compared to 2007, Chinese GDP has grown by more than 40%! And besides that Russian GDP over the same period, it modestly stepped forward by 5%, and US GDP - by 2.5%. Over the same 4 years, the value of the Chinese economic system increased from 52 percent to 73 percent of the equivalent system in the United States. If we are guided by the usual mathematical calculations, then no later than in 2018-2019, China will "surround" the largest American economy to date and establish itself on the Olympus of economic superiority. Recall that for 120 years the United States reveled in its selectivity and inaccessibility in economic terms.

Let us consider the reasons for such an unprecedented growth in Chinese economic industry. Among the reasons for the development of the economy, experts tend to see a total modernization of equipment and jobs in general, not only in large industrial regions, but also, as we say, in the countryside. If back in the early nineties the emphasis was on imported equipment, which, due to the high cost, was designed for 15-20 years of operation, then by the beginning of the new century, China decided to systematically reduce the share of imports in the manufacturing sector and in this regard was very successful. The modernized equipment allowed to significantly expand the scale of production and reduce product costs.

The so-called “Japanese option” is considered as the next reason for China’s unprecedented economic breakthrough, when the authorities deliberately keep the local currency at a low enough level to create unique (almost hothouse) conditions for exports. finished products Worldwide. According to analytical financial centers today's course Chinese yuan, approximately by 15-20% remains underestimated artificially. In this regard, American politicians and economists express the greatest concern, stating that it is the artificial undervaluation of the Chinese currency hinders full-fledged competition in the market for goods on a global scale. The Chinese authorities, in fact, admit that they regulate the exchange rate of the yuan, but are in no hurry to abandon such actions, especially since they lead to positive consequences for China itself. You can already make legends about cheap Chinese goods, wondering how Chinese manufacturers manage to create products that are affordable by today's standards.

The third reason is the relatively low inflationary pressure during the beginning of the development of the Chinese economy. If most of the developing world economies went through this stage at the level of 17-20% annual inflation, then the Chinese managed to correct inflation at the level of 7.5-8% in the 90s. And this is such a percentage at which it is possible to use the system of banking mechanisms to subsidize the economy and transfer unused funds to the status of medium-term and even long-term savings. It was at this stage of formation that the production of products fell, only a tenth of which corresponded to international standards, however, differed greatly low prices. But China survived this, and significantly raised the level of quality of manufactured goods in the next 10-15 years.

The fourth reason: tough directives from the state regarding work in cities and rural areas. If the United States and the European Union, which consider themselves economies aimed, among other things, at solving social issues, began to calculate losses from dimensionless unemployment benefits, then the Chinese “stimulation” of production looks in such a way that in this country it is not possible to “fatten” on benefits. account for. The Chinese authorities are even deliberately reducing unemployment benefits so that citizens do not have plans in their minds to live off the working part of the population. This is what led to the fact that, in comparison with other states with advanced economy, the unemployment rate in China in 2011 was significantly lower. According to official data, it amounted to about 4.4%. It should be noted that global analytical agencies (mainly American) are inclined to see a biased approach to accounting for the unemployed here as well. The Americans accuse the Chinese partners of deliberately creating the so-called “carousel jobs” (we are familiar with this in a somewhat different version), through each of which several dozens or even hundreds of people pass a year. In addition, Chinese statistics are also accused of not taking into account the unemployed in the villages, considering every rural resident to be employed by definition.

The problem with the calculations of anything, according to the information of Western analytical agencies, is great not only in Russia ...

However, no matter what Western experts present, the fact that literally every ordinary Chinese is focused on production is obvious. The Chinese mentality itself does not allow Chinese citizens to leave work. And here it’s not even a matter of party directives ...

For all that, the average wage in China remains far from that associated with economic prosperity. According to the Chinese analogue of our State Statistics Committee, the average Chinese in 2011 received about 6,800 rubles per month in terms of rubles. Even in the Chinese capital of Beijing and the economic capital of Shanghai, the income level of the population is not too different from the national average (for Beijingers - about 10,000 rubles, for residents of Shanghai - no more than 12,000 rubles). At the same time, there are entire regions in China, the majority of whose inhabitants are forced to live below the poverty line. Such territories include the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Inner Mongolia and a number of others. According to the all-knowing website WikiLeaks, it is the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Republic of China that could become a springboard for another Orange Revolution, with subsequent growth throughout China. However, this is nothing more than speculation, but the fact of an economic deep ravine, if not a hole, for hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens remains a bitter reality.

According to statistical estimates, only 15% of the Chinese population live at a level that is understood as well-being. Some 800 million Chinese, despite global economic success, cannot afford to buy most of the goods they produce themselves. About 300 million Chinese live below the poverty line, and this number is more than double the population of Russia!

It turns out that with all the external successes of the Chinese economy, internal successes are still more than modest. If China comes out on top in the world in terms of economic scale, then this will be the first time in the world when a country with so many low-income citizens finds itself on the economic Olympus, unless, of course, there is also a large-scale breakthrough in this regard over the next 7-8 years.

The global crisis, surprisingly, played a positive role for China, unlike most of the developed world economies. He stimulated an even greater export boom by raising the percentage bar for the contribution of the Chinese economy to the global economy. However, the crisis in no way contributed to the development of domestic consumption in a number of Chinese provinces. The technological positive of Shanghai is not yet particularly reflected in the development of the same Inner Mongolia, a large percentage of the population of which, like a number of other provinces, is forced to look for luck in other countries (including Russia), and the main revenues to the regional budget are made up of the trade of that species that was both 30 and 70 years ago.

Apparently, the Chinese economic miracle does not provide for the option of universal prosperity. Otherwise, Chinese society will turn into a classical component of obsolete capitalism. It turns out that while the world has not yet invented the golden mean of development: either universal prosperity and colossal external debt, or a large-scale growth of the state economy with a large percentage of insolvent citizens. And he and the other option, in the end, the world already had the opportunity to pass.

Whether China will find the strength to turn the national economic miracle into an individual miracle for the majority of Chinese, only time will tell, as always.