Demographic situation in different countries of the world. Global problems: the demographic problem. Ways to solve the demographic problem. Other dangers of overpopulation

International demographic statistics: UN estimates and projections

Thus, the continued growth in the total number world population with a relative stabilization of this indicator in an economically more developed countries clearly indicates the positive dynamics of the number of citizens of the Third World. The constant growth of the population of this group of countries, a significant part of which is classified according to international standards to the least developed, is obvious in all scenarios and, therefore, in all forecast options.

The demographic situation in developing countries is attracting close attention of the world community: the prospective development of the world in all areas will be largely determined by the situation in the "less developed regions", especially in Asia, which in many respects plays a crucial role. Five demographic leaders: China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh - Asian states (see Table 3; the situation in the Russian Federation will be considered separately); Brazil and Mexico are in America; the most populated countries in Africa (2004) are Nigeria (128.7 million) and Ethiopia (75.6 million).

Table 3. The world's largest countries by population

Sources: Development Human Report 2006. N.Y., 2006. P. 298-300; Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. N.Y., December 2006. P. 1-5.

The high rates of demographic growth in developing countries will continue into the future, despite a decline from 1.9% in 1975-2004. up to 1.3% in 2004-2015 Recall that the average annual growth rate of the world population for the same periods is 1.8 and 1.1%. Particularly dynamic population growth is characteristic of the 50 least developed countries of the world. For example, the total population of Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau, Congo, Mali, Niger and a number of other countries will almost triple.

Uneven population growth leads to a constant reduction in the share of developed regions in the world total - 32% in 1950, 19% in 2005 and 14% in 2050 - and to an increase in the share of developing countries.

The unevenness of population growth is noted not only between groups of states, but also between specific countries. Particularly noteworthy are the changes characteristic of the development trends of the two leaders in the global demographic situation - China and India. Increasingly, India is ahead of China in both relative and absolute indicators of dynamics, constantly increasing its share in the world total. At the same time, there is some reduction in the corresponding indicator of China (Table 3), which, nevertheless, does not deprive it of the first position in the corresponding rating so far.

These same two world demographic leaders account for a large part of the projected absolute increase in the average annual population: in 2015 it is 258 million out of 830 million, or more than a third. At the same time, it is interesting and appropriate to once again focus on the fact that China will continue to cede some of its positions to India. Thus, by 2015, the population growth in comparison with 2004 will be 173 million in India, and "only" 85 million in China.

In addition, a fairly significant concentration of the population remains in the largest countries in terms of its size. In 10 states with a population of more than 100 million people, of which only two are included in the group of "more developed regions", in 2004 more than 3.3 billion people (50.3% of the world total) lived, of which 2.4 billion (37.6%) - in China and India. However, in the future, the concentration of the population in the most populous countries will decrease. Thus, the share of states that in 2004 topped the list of the largest countries in terms of the number of citizens - China, India, the USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Japan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia - will decrease to 49.6% in 2015 against 52.5% in 2004, including China and India - up to 36.8% (Table 3).

The demographic situation poses many questions to the world, the solution of which in most cases is difficult only by individual countries and requires international cooperation of various formats and levels. First of all, this refers to global problems, the most acute of which have been urbanization for several decades; migration; population aging; the ratio of indicators of natural increase - fertility and mortality, etc.

Let us turn to the most striking and, therefore, the most widely known indicators from among the estimates and projections of the UN, which help to get an idea of ​​the current and future - up to 2050 - demographic situation. Special attention while focusing on 2015 and 2020. for the previously stated reason.

The population density indicator gives an idea of ​​the average number of people living per 1 sq. km. km of territory. According to 2000 data, it was 45 people in the world, and 115 people in Asia, the most populated part of the world, compared to 19 and 44, respectively, in 1950. The most authoritative demographers predict a further increase in the indicator: by 2020 to 56 people and by 2050 to 67 people per 1 sq. km for the world as a whole and 143 and 164 people for Asia. In China, the figure was 58 in 1950 and 133 in 2000; in India -109 and 311; in the Russian Federation - 1 and 8. The maximum population density in the Republic of Korea - 189 and 470 people; Holland -244 and 383; Belgium - 283 and 338 respectively. Japan was among the leaders in 2000 - 221 and 336 people per 1 sq. km. km.

The issue of dividing the population into urban and rural areas is related to population density, and as a logical continuation, the problem of urbanization, which is understood as the concentration of economic and cultural life in large urban centers (Table 4). According to the UN Demographic Yearbook for 2006, in China, Shanghai remains the largest cities - 14.4 million people and Beijing - 11.5 million (2000). In India, the largest population is in Delhi (2001 - 9, 8 million, and with the suburbs - 12.8 million. The largest agglomeration of the world continues to be Mexico City - 19.5 million people (2003).

Table 4. Urban population of the world, % of the total population

A source

The urban population is increasing in all countries, but especially in the group of economically developed countries, often identified with the member states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Table 5). In 2004, in this group of countries, the highest indicator was Iceland - 92.7%, and the lowest in this group of countries - Portugal - 57.0%. Despite the change in the stereotype regarding the advantages of living in cities, primarily in large ones, the number of urban agglomerations with a population of 1 million inhabitants or more continues to grow. The undisputed leader here belongs to the United States, where in 2003 there were 34 such urbanized formations. The largest among them are New York (17.8 million people) and Los Angeles (11.8 million people).

Urban population growth will continue. It will significantly outpace the dynamics of the rural population. This trend is especially noticeable in developed regions, where since the 1950s rural population is constantly decreasing. Among the leading OECD countries, this is most noticeable in Japan: by 2005 it amounted to 2.8 million people, compared with 4.5 million in 1990 (4.3 and 7.2% of the employed).

Table 5 Total population urban population of the leading OECD countries, % of the total population

A source: Development Human Report 2006. P. 298-300.

As you know, it is the cities, and above all the large and largest ones, that are the points of attraction for the majority of immigrants. Thus, the continuation of the logical chain of problems of population density - urban and rural population - urbanization is an extremely acute (but, of course, differentiated by groups of countries and individual countries) migration problem.

According to the UN forecast, in 2045-2050. the main receiving countries will be the USA (1.1 million immigrants annually), Germany (202 thousand), Canada (200 thousand), Great Britain (130 thousand), Italy (120 thousand) and Australia (100 thousand). In Russia, the balance of migration (net migration, or the excess of immigrants over emigrants) is estimated at 50,000 people annually. The negative balance will be typical for China (an average of 327 thousand emigrants per year), Mexico (293 thousand), India (241 thousand), Philippines (180 thousand), Indonesia (164 thousand), Pakistan (154 thousand people). ) and Ukraine (100 thousand).

For 2005-2050 the average annual level of international net migration is estimated at 2.2 million people, or 98 million for the period as a whole. In the more developed regions of the world, emigrant flows often compensate for the natural population decline, and in some cases can even break the downward trend in population, as was the case in 2000-2005. in Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Slovakia, Slovenia and Croatia.

Migration flows are highly dependent on the state of labor markets in host countries, and these depend not least on the age structure population. The study of the gender (by sex) structure is carried out on the basis of indicators of the proportion of the female (male) population in the total population (for example, in the PRC in 2000, 48.6% of the population were women), as well as the percentage of male and female population, that is, the number of men per 100 women. According to estimates, in the whole world this indicator will be 100.6% in 2020; in 2050 - 99.4% against 110% in 2005 and 99.6% in 1950.

To study the age structure of the population, three main groups are distinguished: up to 14 years (children); 15 to 64 years old (population in working age); 65 years and older (older age group, post-labour population). Global data for 2004 - 28.5; 64.2 and 7.3% respectively. The highest rate of the young population and at the same time the lowest rate of the older age group have been consistently recorded in Africa for many years.

The average "median" age in the world is 26.8 years, in Russia - 36.4 years, USA - 30.0 years. Another indicator of the age structure is the aging coefficient (the proportion of people aged 65 and over in the total population of the country). In accordance with established world practice, a country belongs to the category of "demographically aging" if the persons of this age group make up 15 percent or more of the total population of the country.

According to the censuses of the late 20th - early 21st centuries, this border was crossed by almost all economically the developed countries. The proportion of the population aged 60 years and over was 20% there, and by 2050 it will rise to 32%. This age group has already outnumbered children and this trend is expected to increase, with two older people per child by 2050.

According to UN estimates, the problem of population aging is characteristic of almost all countries of the world. The differences concern only the degree of dynamism of this process and, of course, the actual levels of these indicators of the age structure of the population (Table 6). In Russia, not only a slight reduction in the proportion of the elderly population is expected, but also an absolute reduction in their number by 1.43 million people). By 2050, the number of older people (in this case, the population aged 60 and over) in the world is projected to rise to 1.9 billion from 672 million in 2005, essentially tripling. At the same time, most of them will be concentrated in developing countries: in 2050, 8 people out of 10 against 6 out of 10 in 2005. In addition, it is in these countries that the largest number of long-livers will live - people aged 80 years and older. Their global number will grow to 394 million people.

Table 6. People of the oldest age group in the world's population

A source: Development Human Report 2006. P. 298-300.

Of great interest is information about life expectancy. This is the estimated number of years of life of people born in the specified year. So, the global indicator for 1950-1955. was 46.6 years (45.3 years for men and 48.0 for women), and for 2000-2005. - 65.4 (63.2 and 67.7 years respectively).

In 2045-2050 the expected average life expectancy for the general population could be 75.1 years, including 72.8 years for men and 77.8 years for women. The basis for such optimism is the factual data: by the end of the 20th century. life expectancy increased by 2-3% in Western Europe, by 1- 2% in USA. Moreover, in most countries in the second half of the XX century. The growth of this important demographic indicator in men was faster than in women. However, higher rates remained in women. According to the 2000-2005 estimate, the total figure was 75.6 years, including 79.3 for women; for men - 71.9. And in the future, the average life expectancy of women will be higher than that of men (in 2045-2050, 85.0 years and 79.1 years, respectively).

In recent decades, the best indicators of life expectancy for both women and men have been recorded in Japan and the Scandinavian countries - Norway and Sweden. They will remain as high as possible in 2045-2050: for Japan - 84.1; 92.5 and 88.3 years respectively; for Norway - 82.7; 87.2 and 84.9; for Sweden - 83.4; 87.6 and 85.5.

In developing countries, life expectancy has also increased significantly and continues to grow: from 41.1 years in 1950-1955. (40.3 years for men and 42.0 years for women) to 63.4 (61.7 for men and 65.2 years for women) in 2000-2005. For 2045-2050 these figures will be 67.4; 71.8 and 76.2 years. The problem of life expectancy is especially acute in the group of 50 least developed countries of the world. Here, the countdown of dynamics starts from 36.1 years (35.4 years for men and 36.8 years for women) in 1950-1955. and growth is expected in 2045-2050. up to 66.5; 64.9 and 68.2 years.

This positive outlook contrasts with the depressing evidence for individual countries. So, in 2000-2005. in Nigeria, life expectancy was 43.3 years; Somalia - 46.2; Senegal - 55.6; in Ghana, 56.7 years. The AIDS epidemic is rightly considered one of the reasons for this situation. In South Africa, where its prevalence is highest, life expectancy has even declined from 62 years in 1990-1995. up to 48 years in 2000-2005

This negative factor greatly exacerbates the problem of the ratio of mortality and fertility rates - natural population growth(Table 7). The indicators are expressed in ppm ( ‰ ), that is, per 1 thousand people in decimilles (0 / 000 ), that is, per 10 thousand people. According to the UN, the total fertility rate in the world will be in 2045-2050. 13.8‰. This means that during this period, there will be an average of 138 births per 10,000 people per year.

Table 7. Key global and regional demographic indicators

I - total fertility rate; II - total mortality rate; III - population density.
A source: Statistical Yearbook. N.Y., 2005. P. 12-13.

Fertility is one of the determining factors that have a particularly tangible impact on the change in the population of individual countries, regions and the world as a whole. The highest birth rates in 2000-2005. were typical for the countries of Asia and Central Africa. At the beginning of the new millennium, the highest birth rates in developing countries remained in Mozambique - 42.7‰, Jordan - 27.4, Peru - 23.0. In China, these ratios have declined from 43.8‰ in 1950-1955. up to 13.6‰ in 2000-2005 This information is mostly a UN estimate. Relatively reliable data date back no later than 2003-2004.

In the context of multidirectional trends in the dynamics of fertility and mortality at the end of the last century, the world population increased by 2003 compared to 1950 by 3.8 billion people, or 2.5 times, including in Asia - by 2, 4 billion or 2.7 times. Consequently, the proportion of the growth of the Asian population amounted to almost 64%. The more interesting the data of the prospective natural increase in the population of this part of the world: the birth rate will also grow - from 17.0% in 2015-2020. to 19.3% 0 in 2045-2050, and the mortality rate is 7.6 and 10.2‰.

Among the factors of high birth rates, the distribution of the population into urban and rural areas continues to play an important role. In 1975, in developing regions, only 26.5% of the population were city dwellers. Over the past years, no significant changes have been noted, although the trend towards an increase in the proportion of the urban population is becoming obvious here too: 42.2% in 2004 and 48.0% in 2015.

We emphasize, however, that the world as a whole is characterized by a downward trend in the levels of natural population movement. Thus, the total fertility rates will decrease from 37.5‰ in 1950-1955. up to 22.1‰ in 2000-2005 and up to 13.8‰ in 2045-2050. The reduction will be almost universal. In China, for example, from 13.2‰ in 2005-2010. to 10.2‰ in 2045-2050

The overall mortality rate is also declining - from 19.5‰ in 1950-1955. up to 9.5‰ in 2000-2005 The global decline in mortality rates in the 20th and early XXI centuries - the result, first of all, of a sharp manifestation of this trend in developing countries: 23.8‰ in 1950-1955. and 8.7‰ in 2000-2005. However, the situation continues to be difficult. The problem of child mortality is particularly acute. The corresponding coefficients are measured by monstrous numbers (‰ ): in general for less developed countries -180 in 1950-1955; 62 - in 2000-2005 and 36 - according to the forecast for 2045-2050. These figures are especially high for children under the age of 5: in Africa, for example, 179‰ in 1950-1955; 94 - in 2000-2005 and 59‰ according to the forecast in 2045-2050. However, after 2020-2025, when the overall mortality rates for the world as a whole fall to 8.8‰, the trend will change. In 2045-2050 the mortality rate in both absolute and relative form will increase on average per year to 90.7 million people, or 10.1‰ against 64.9 million people, or 8.8‰ in 2015-2020. and 59.5 million people and 8.9‰ in 2005-2010.

It is also interesting to compare world and regional data on natural population growth: for the world as a whole, this coefficient in 2000-2005. averaged 12‰ (which means an increase in the population by 12 people per thousand inhabitants). For Africa, the corresponding figure was 23‰, while in Europe it was below both the named regional and world levels. At the same time, in a number of countries it even had negative values ​​(Table 8).

Table 8. Vitality rates of the population of the leading OECD countries per 1 thousand people, ‰

1 - fertility; 2 - mortality; 3 - natural increase.
A source: Labor Force Statistics 1985-2005. OECD. Paris, 2006. P. 52-53, 72-73, 90-91, 170-171, 180-181, 230-231, 340-341.

The situation in Russia remains difficult, but even in this case there have been positive developments: an increase in the birth rate with a decrease in the number of deaths has determined the reduction in the natural loss of Russians; slightly, but still increased the indicator of life expectancy; infant mortality is decreasing.

In October 2002, the All-Russian Population Census was conducted (as of 00:00 on October 9). Since the previous census (1989), the population of Russia has decreased by 1.9 million people, but the results of the 2002 census by 1.8 million people exceeded the current estimate of the number of Russians of the same year. Table data. 9 speak of stable growth and stabilization of the share of the urban population. According to the UN forecast, in the new millennium the population of our country will decline: to 129.2 million people in 2025 and 111.8 million in 2050. As a result, the total population of Russia, as well as the Baltic countries, as well as most of the republics of the former Soviet Union, in 2050 will be lower than in 2005.

Table 9. Main results of population censuses in Russia

A source: Results of the All-Russian population census of 2002. M., 2003. S. 8, 9.

The birth rate in Russia will decrease in 2045-2050. to 10.5‰ against 11.2‰ in 2005-2010, or from 1.5 to 1.2 million people per year. Mortality will also decrease - from 2.3 to 1.9 million people a year. The child mortality rate is projected to decrease from 19 to 9‰, including for children under 5 years of age - from 21 to 11‰ . Favorable forecasts regarding the dynamics of life expectancy - up to 72.9 years (up to 68.9 for men, up to 76.5 for women). Net migration is projected at a stable level of 50,000 people per year, or 0.4‰.

The key conclusion of the UN forecast is the following. Despite the decline in fertility rates projected for the period 2005-2050, until the middle of the century, the annual population growth will be about 34 million people, and the world population at an average birth rate will reach 9.1 billion people.

TARLETSKAYA Lidia Vladimirovna, candidate economic sciences, associate professor at MGIMO (U) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
In preparing the article, along with the UN forecasts and estimates presented in World Population Prospects. The 2004 revision, used information from other authoritative publications of the UN, in particular, from the UN Demographic Yearbook for 2006, as well as from publications of the OECD, whose database is one of the most informative and reliable data.
For details of the calculation methodology, see: World Population Prospects. The 2002 revision. T. III. analytical report. N.Y., 2005. P. 180-182.
These works are carried out by a special working group, which also includes representatives of the ILO, UNESCO, FAO and a number of other organizations from among the most authoritative.
World Population Prospects. The 2004 revision. V. I: Comprehensive Tables. P.lxxxi.
The net reproduction rate is the average number of girls born to one woman who survived to the end of the reproductive period (15-49 years) at birth and death rates conventionally taken as unchanged.
Hereinafter, unless otherwise noted, the calculations are based on data taken from the World Population Prospects. The 2004 revision. V. I: Comprehensive Tables.
Country forecasts for later periods are not available.
In world practice, there are discrepancies in the formation of these categories in individual countries. The main principle of grouping remains the number of inhabitants, but in Denmark it is 250 people, in most US states - 2.5 thousand people, in Russia - 12 thousand, in Japan - 30 thousand people (see: Multilingual Demographic Dictionary. New York, United Nations, 1964, p. 29).
The median age means that 50% of the population is older than it and 50% is younger, that is, the growth of this age indicates the aging of the population.
Until recently, the calculation was carried out for the group "60 years and older". Currently, both options are used, which sometimes introduces some confusion into the analysis of the finished data.
See: World Population Prospects. The 2004 revision. V. Ill: Analytical Report. P. Lxxiv.

Geography, geology and geodesy

Demographic indicators of the regions of the world Population geography studies the size, structure and distribution of the population considered in the process of social reproduction and interaction with the natural environment. Under the reproduction of the population is understood the totality of processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase, which ensure the continuous renewal and change of human generations. The first type is characterized by relatively low birth rates, mortality and natural increase for economically developed ...

G population geography. Demographic indicators of the regions of the world

Population geographystudies the size, structure and distribution of the population, considered in the process of social reproduction and interaction with the natural environment.

Under reproductionof the population understand the totality of the processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase, which ensure the uninterrupted renewal and change of human generations. Currently, there are two types of reproduction. The first type is characterized by relatively low birth rates, death rates and natural increase - for economically developed countries, where natural increase is either very low or dominated by natural decline population- depopulation ( demographic crisis). The second type of reproduction is characterized high rates fertility and natural population growth. This type is typical for developing countries, where the gain of independence led to a sharp reduction in mortality, while the birth rate remained at the same level.

D.P. - indicators characterizing the state of the population and its reproduction. These include indicators of the natural movement of the population - the birth rate, mortality (general, infant, by causes of death), the average life expectancy. D. items are also the size and structure of the population, population density, level of education, ethnic structure, family structure.

Fertility is the process of renewal of new generations, which is based on biological factors that affect a person's ability to reproduce offspring (conception, fertilization, gestation). Birth rate in human society determined by socio-economic processes, living conditions, life, traditions, religious attitudes and other factors.

Birth rate per 1000 people

The fertility rate, which, in contrast to the birth rate, is calculated not by the total population, but by the number of women aged 15-49 years (the number of births before and after this age interval is insignificant and can be neglected).

Mortality rate due to the complex interaction of many factors, among which the dominant influence is exerted by socio-economic (well-being, education, nutrition, living conditions, sanitary and hygienic condition populated areas and the degree of development of public health services).

The first approximate estimate of mortality can be given on the basis of the general mortality rate (the ratio of the annual number of deaths to the average annual number of the entire population, multiplied by 1000).

Mortality rates calculated for certain age and sex groups of the population are much more accurate.

Based on age-specific mortality rates, the indicator is calculated medium duration future life (the hypothetical number of years that a given generation of births or the number of peers of a certain age will live, provided that, throughout their life, mortality in each age group will be the same as it was in the year for which the calculation was made). This indicator characterizes the viability of the population as a whole;

The average life expectancy for individual economically developed countries differs to a much lesser extent than the overall mortality rates. The increase in life expectancy in most countries has slowed down significantly, and in some countries has almost stopped. However, the higher achieved level average life expectancy in the country, the less significant its further increase.

A significant demographic indicator that affects the change in the viability of the population and the value of general mortality rates and indicators of average life expectancy is the mortality of children under the age of 1 year - infant mortality, formerly called child mortality. The infant mortality rate is the ratio of the number of deaths under the age of 1 to total number live births in a given year, multiplied by 1,000. Infant mortality is an important indicator of the health status of a population, as it directly reflects the socio-economic conditions of life and the degree of development of health care.

Theoretical question.

Indicators of the demographic development of the world.

Issues of population in general, the reproduction of the labor force are attracting the growing attention of specialists, politicians and the public. The reasons for this are that demographic situation, the situation with the use of labor force, emerging in individual countries and regions, largely affect the state and prospects of their economic and social development, on the alignment of economic and political forces on a regional and global scale.

Population growth is strongly influenced by social, cultural and economic factors, and has a noticeable effect on them.

The overall population growth is accelerating. For 1950-2000 it increased 2.4 times - from 2.5 to 6.1 billion people. Over a long historical period, the time periods for doubling the population are reduced. The first doubling occurred in 1500 years (the beginning of our era - 1500), the second - in 300 years (1500-1800), the third - in 120 years (1800-1920), the fourth - in 50 years (1920-1920). 1970), fourth - in 48 years (1970-2018)

The population size depends on the basic conditions for the long-term existence of populations (biological, ethological, ecological). World population growth has not been smooth. In some countries and regions, it accelerated, in others it remained unchanged or decreased, which was determined by a number of the above reasons. So, the plague in 1348-1377. in Europe led to a decrease in the population by at least 40%, and the demographic recovery took over a hundred years.

The main aspects of demographic development. Demographic development consists of long periods of evolution and relatively short qualitative shifts or periods of demographic transition and demographic revolutions. The demographic transition is understood as a change in the types of population reproduction. It coincides with the transformation of the pre-industrial system of productive forces into an industrial one. The demographic revolution is an integral part of the demographic transition.

The term demographic revolution, or population explosion, means an unprecedented high rate of natural population growth, which exceeds the growth rate of previous decades. By individual assessments, rapid growth includes an annual increase of 2% or more, at which the population doubles every 35 years, moderate - every 50 years, slow - about every 200 years.

Population explosion - a consequence and manifestation of the modernization process traditional type reproduction of the population, during which the demographic balance is maintained by extremely high birth and death rates. A characteristic feature of this order is the rapid change of generations, barely surviving to 40 years. The transformation of the traditional type of natural reproduction began with a decrease in mortality. By the middle of the XX century. humanity began to have effective and relatively cheap means of combating mass diseases, which led to a sharp decrease in mortality.

The process of reducing mortality was accelerated in developing countries. For the second half of the XX century. the mortality rate there decreased by 2.8 times: from 24.2 in 1950-1955. up to 8.6 people per thousand inhabitants in 1995-2000. Population growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America became explosive. The power of the ongoing population explosion exceeds that known before. Due to the fact that today's extremely high rates of population growth the globe decisively determined by the rate of its increase in developing countries, the population explosion of these countries has turned into a global one. For 1950-1970 population growth increased from 2.0 to 2.5% on average per year, then in 1995-2000. it dropped to 1.6% (Table 1).

Table 1

Population growth rate, %

* Including Eastern Europe.

Population growth in developing countries in the second half of the 1990s was four times higher than in industrialized countries (1.6 and 0.4). The highest population growth rates are observed in the countries of the Middle East and Africa (2.2% in 1950-1955 and 2.4% in 1995-2000). In the countries of Tropical Africa, the preservation of demographic stereotypes is facilitated by objective factors associated with high infant mortality, the spread of infertility, and persistent polygamy. High population growth rates persist in the countries of South America.

The population explosion is not a new phenomenon in demographic history. In Western countries, the highest population growth rates were in 1760-1820, when the population of the United States increased almost 6 times, Britain - 1.8, France - 1.2, Germany - 1.4, Italy - 1, 1 time. No less impressive changes in the population of this group of countries occurred in 1820-1860, when the population of the United States increased by more than three times, Britain - 1.4 times, Germany - almost 1.5 times. The birth rate in the now industrialized countries was 3.78% in 1820; fell to 3.01%.

The demographic transition in the industrialized countries of the West ended in the 1950s. Improved living conditions have increased life expectancy, reduced fertility and increased the proportion of older people. According to the middle variant, it is expected that, starting from 2010-2015. in this subsystem of the world economy, the gross birth rate will be inferior to the death rate.

In the demographic transition, or a change in the types of population reproduction, four phases can be distinguished, which are determined by the movement of birth and death rates. Thus, the fourth phase of the current demographic transition in the world provides for the convergence of birth and death rates due to the growth of the latter. In this regard, the cessation of growth and stabilization of the world population is expected by the end of this century.

The rationality of the phases of population reproduction is largely determined by the socio-economic organization of society. The restructuring of the type of reproduction depends not only on the reduction of mortality, but also on socio-economic transformations. The type of fertility is largely determined by the type of family and nature economic relations in her. The backward agrarian economy is dominated by large families, where relatives are united by a common economic activity and duties, where the flows of benefits are directed from younger ages to older ones. These relationships determine the economic feasibility of maximizing the birth rate.

IN industrial society the family is deprived of an economic function, the flow of benefits in it changes direction, which predetermines the economic expediency of childlessness. Therefore, in many developing countries, improvements in health and well-being, which can lead to a significant increase in life expectancy and a decrease in child mortality, will play a more important role in reducing population growth and overall growth than in Western countries, where the population replacement rate has fallen to how modern means of preventing and terminating pregnancy have become widespread.

Although the population growth rate is declining, the absolute increase in the number of people on the planet increased until the early 90s (1950-1955 - 47 million, 1985-1990 - 86 million, 1995-2000 - 77.7 million . person per year). At the end of the last century there was the most significant population growth. For 12 years (1987-1999) it increased by 1 billion and approached 6 billion people.

Placement of the population. The main population growth is provided by developing countries. In the first half of the 1950s, they provided 79%, and in the second half of the 1990s, 97% of the world population growth. More than half (60%) of population growth comes from 10 countries. India alone accounts for 20% of world population growth. These processes have led to a redistribution of the population between different subsystems of the world economy. If in 1950 approximately 2/3 of the population lived in developing countries, in 2000. - 80%, then in 2025. a further increase in their share to 84% is expected (Table 2).

table 2

Distribution of the world population by subsystems

and regions (million people and %)

* Forecast.

Excerpt: World population prospects. The 1998 revision. V.1 Comprehensive tables. UN. 1999.

The increase in the share of developing countries was mainly at the expense of Africa and India. The share of industrially developed countries of the West decreased from 32% to 19.6%. Such shifts increased differentiation in the distribution of population and productive forces. On the developing countries accounts for 80% of the population and only about 20% of the VMP (37% according to purchasing power currencies). This subsystem of the world economy contains the largest countries in terms of population (over 100 million people). These include China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria. The share of industrialized countries in the world population is declining. The natural increase is very low. In North America, Western Europe and Japan, it is carried out on a reduced basis (gross reproduction rate less than 2.0%). A similar picture can be observed in Eastern European countries. This poses a threat of depopulation or demographic crisis in these areas. IN Russian Federation The demographic situation in the 1990s was characterized as a crisis. A change in population, a decrease in the share of a particular country, subsystem in the world population changes the potential opportunities of countries in the world economy.

In the 20th century, the state of the environment of our planet is steadily deteriorating due to anthropogenic influence. People are no longer able to adapt to these rapid changes. In addition, there was the problem of a population explosion and the limited natural resources and living space of the globe.

The factors that influenced the increase in numbers include a decrease in mortality from epidemics and famine, a sharp decrease in infant mortality in developing countries, associated with improved hygiene conditions and advances in medicine. Now the parameters of population reproduction are approximately: the total birth rate in the world is 24.6%, the total death rate is 9.8%, the natural increase rate is 14.8%. Those. + 270 babies per minute, - 110 people of different ages, the world population is increasing by 160 people (by 230 thousand per day).

Over the past 150 years, the population of the Earth has been growing at a very rapid pace. This is evidenced by the facts, because at the beginning of our chronology, the population of the Earth reached 230 million people. Only around 1830 it reached 1 billion people, in 1890 it was 1.6 billion. However, already in 1930 there were more than 2 billion people on Earth, and 30 years later, in 1960, the number on the planet reached 3 billion. and after 15 years (1975) - 4 billion, in 1987. - 5 billion. In 1999, the world's population reached 6 billion. In the first half of the XXI century. the population of the planet, according to the forecasts of futurologists, will approach 11 billion (see Fig. 1).

Fig 1. The total population of the globe.

Such an increase in the human population is likely to continue into the 21st century. So, every year the number of people on Earth increases by about 100 million (about 250 thousand per day), and the natural resources with which you can ensure the life of this population, improve its quality, are catastrophically reduced. The number of the poor and disadvantaged in the world is constantly increasing, despite the pace of economic development, there is a catastrophic depletion of all natural resources. Today, society is unable to solve not only global, but also regional environmental and social problems.

Leading scientists of the world believe that the main measures that will help preserve our civilization and biosphere are the revival and preservation of the diversity of nature and populations in volumes that ensure the sustainability of the environment. It is necessary to strive to harmonize the relationship between human society and nature. And this is possible only if the consciousness of mankind changes.

In the process of forecasting the development of the world, formalized methods are used, which are based on the use of modern computer technology. On fig. 2 shows a graphical model of the development of the world for D. Meadows. According to this model, the amount of food, industrial production and population grow exponentially until the rapid depletion of resources slows down industrial growth. Due to natural costs in the system, population and pollution continue to increase for some time after industrial production has passed its "peak" value.

The demographic situation in the world has recently become one of the topical socio-economic problems. If in 1000 the population of the Earth consisted of 275 million people, then by 1900 we became 1.6 billion. In 1988, the five billionth earthling was born, and already at the beginning of the third millennium, the six billionth child was born on the planet. According to experts' forecasts, by the end of this decade the world's population may reach 10-11 billion people.

The 20th century was the century of a rapid decline in mortality and an increase in life expectancy throughout the world, and this led to an unprecedented increase in the world's population. True, for the first time an unusual acceleration of demographic growth due to the growing predominance of the number of births over the number of deaths was noted back in the 19th century. But then it was observed only in Europe and, compared with the acceleration of population growth in the 20th century, it was small.

Figure 7

In the second half of the XX century. population growth has exploded. It took the world's population 121 years to grow from one to two billion people, this milestone was reached in 1926; it took 34 years for a new billion, the next billion was added in 14 years, then in 13, the increase in the population from 5 to 6 billion people took 12 years and ended in 1999. The growth rate of the world population peaked in the 1960s; in the last three decades of the 20th century, they gradually decreased, but still remain high. Demographic growth rates in the first half of the 21st century are lower than in the second half of the 20th. According to the UN average version of the forecast, the increase in the world population from 6 to 7 billion will take 13 years, from 7 to 8 - 14, from 8 to 9 - 17 years. There are other projections that predict a faster slowdown in world population growth. But in any case, in the middle of the 21st century, about 5-7 times more people will live on Earth than at the beginning of the 20th century.

Figure 8

Today, the global demographic problem is the continuing growth of the population in China (today about 1.4 billion inhabitants). Many provinces of the country are overpopulated. The government has a policy of limiting the number of children in families. However, this often leads to the fact that Chinese families hide "excessive" children for the time being, and then send them in search of a better life, including abroad. In those countries where the Chinese move, there are problems of their own. They are connected with the fact that immigrants from the Celestial Empire are practically not amenable to assimilation: the Chinese diasporas live compactly, according to their own laws. Today, there are "Chinatowns" in almost all more or less developed countries.

Recently, demographers have noted even more troubling trends in China's demographics. More and more boys are being born there. If the usual gender balance is expressed as a proportion of 105 men to 100 women, then in China in 2007 it was 117 to 100, respectively. Moreover, the demographic policy of the authorities, aimed at reducing population growth, combined with the traditional desire of every Chinese family to give birth to a boy, only exacerbates this trend. : Parents make the difficult decision to medically dispose of female embryos. At the recent International Congress of Demographers in Tours, France, American scientists provided a forecast that between 2015 and 2030 there will be 25 million more adult men in China than women.

Excess male population, especially considering the overpopulation of the PRC, means in best case"labor migration", the scale of which is comparable to the Great Migration of Nations. This is a real danger as "surplus" boys are already being born in China. Moreover, in this case, the forecast of scientists is calculated just taking into account the fact that the current trends will be weakened. And if we nevertheless imagine that the Chinese government, which is aware of the acuteness of the problem, will not be able to cope with population growth, then the "surplus" inhabitants of the Celestial Empire may turn out to be much more than 25 million. After all, the proportion of 117 to 100, when applied to the population of China, gives a preponderance of the male population over the female by more than 100 million people.

The sharp decline in population in developed countries is the most dangerous threat.

This global negative trend will be of the most significant importance for the world community. For Russia, it is acquiring clear features of an impending catastrophe.

Sufficiently rapid aging of the population of these countries will not be compensated by newborns.

Nevertheless, it should be noted that trends are already emerging in the United States that will eliminate or significantly reduce the threat of a demographic crisis.

Rice. nine.

Fig.10.

The downward trend in the number of children in the family has affected almost all industrialized countries.

It is also noticeable that all developed countries are concerned about demographic issues. Some of them were able to overcome these negative trends (an example is the Scandinavian countries).

Fig.11.

The predicted increase in the number of births will take place from 2030-2035.

However, a change in trend will no longer have any positive consequences for a significant number of countries, including Russia.

Fig.12.

According to most forecasts, Russia is the main recipient of the demographic shock among the leading countries of the world.

However, Russia has remained aloof from the challenge of the aging of the nation. So far, Russia can not complain about the demographic burden.

Russia is not among the countries with the oldest population, now in most European countries it is older. According to the latest data published on the UN website, in 2008, among 228 countries of the world, Russia ranks 44th in terms of the proportion of people aged 60 years and older, 33rd in terms of median age, and 30th in terms of the aging index. e. As shown in fig. 13, at present, in terms of the degree of aging, the population of Russia is somewhat younger than the population of Eastern Europe, but significantly younger than the population of other European countries and Japan. As for the comparison with the US, the median age in Russia is higher, the proportion of the elderly (60 years and older) is about the same, and the proportion of the oldest (80 years and older) is lower. It is for the latter indicator that the differences between Russia and other countries are greatest (see also Table 1).

Figure 13. Median age: comparison of Russia with other countries

Table 1. Characteristics of the population aged 60 and over, 2008

Two factors contribute to the lower proportion of the population aged 80 and over: high mortality over the past four decades and the loss of life of generations that took an active part in World War II. Both factors are primarily important for the male population. It is not surprising, therefore, that Russia has the lowest sex ratio at older ages (Table 1). At the same time, the majority of older people in Russia are married and, with the exception of Japan and countries Southern Europe among them are less common living alone. The economic activity of the elderly population in Russia is one of the highest in Europe, but significantly lower than in Japan and the United States.

Due to the relative youth of its population, Russia has the most low levels demographic load. But if the burden of the elderly in our country for more than half a century was one of the lowest among the compared countries and regions, then the burden of children, on the contrary, was one of the highest until the early 1990s. It was the sharp drop in the load of children in the 1990s that led to the fact that now the indicator of the total load in Russia has become the lowest for the group under consideration for the entire period since 1950.