In the first half of the year. Ria rating. Dynamics of indicators of volumes of commissioning, net absorption and the level of vacant office space

09:12 - REGNUM

The results of the first half of 2017 for the regions of Russia are ambiguous: the economy is recovering from the crisis, but the dynamics of household income and consumption looks much less optimistic. This opinion was expressed by a leading researcher at the Center for the Analysis of Income and Living Standards High school the economy Natalia Zubarevich, correspondent reports IA REGNUM.

Daria Antonova © IA REGNUM

Budget revenues are growing, outstripping the dynamics of expenditures, but in almost half of the regions the problems of budget imbalance persist. Regional policy priorities for supporting the economy and developing human capital have become more visible, but positive trends are weak and localized mainly in the most competitive regions.

The results of the first 6-7 months of 2017 show that the recession has ended not only in industrial production, but also in investments. The volume of industrial production in January-July increased by 1.9%, growth was noted in 73 regions out of 85. Among the regions with more developed industry, the Astrakhan, Arkhangelsk, Yaroslavl, Murmansk regions (by 17-26%), and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District grew faster. (by 14%). However, in the two largest regions - Moscow and the oil-producing Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous District - industrial production decreased by 2.4% and 1.3%, respectively. Their contribution to the overall dynamics of industrial production in the country is great: the capital accounts for more than 11%, and almost 7% of industrial production is concentrated in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug.

Industrial production dynamics

There is no stable industrial growth yet, this is confirmed by the weak dynamics of the manufacturing industry (growth by 1% in January-July), although it also grew in most regions (68 out of 85). In addition to the Arkhangelsk, Murmansk and Yaroslavl regions, Kaluga, Moscow and Irkutsk regions stood out with a significant growth in the manufacturing industry (by 13-14%). This is a consequence of the improvement in the situation in non-ferrous metallurgy, the automotive industry and a number of other industries. Among the regions with a developed manufacturing industry, a strong decline was noted in the Republic of Buryatia (-22%), the Astrakhan and Amur regions (-17%), and the Trans-Baikal Territory (-12%). The regions of Transbaikalia remain the most problematic in the country in terms of industrial dynamics.

Investment dynamics

Investments in the first half of 2017 grew by 4.8%, but the regional picture is not so rosy - growth was noted only in half of the regions. The dynamics of investments is strongly influenced by the effect of the base, therefore, it is necessary to take into account the differences in their volumes in the regions. The share of the two leading oil and gas producing regions - Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug - in the first half of 2017 amounted to 15% of all investments in the country, and the volume of investments increased by 5-13% compared to the same period in 2016. almost 12% of all investments in the country, having increased their volume by 19%. Moreover, the share budget investments in the capital (29%) is more than twice the national average (13%), a quarter of all investments come from the Moscow budget, including for infrastructure development and improvement.

Growth is even more significant in Yakutia (by 60%) due to the construction of a gas pipeline to China and the development of oil and gas production. The leaders in the dynamics of investments are Crimea and Sevastopol (2.9 and 1.9 times, respectively), but in total they account for only 1.3% of all investments in the country, and growth was provided mainly due to budget investments, the share of which is maximum (71-80%). Thus, the capital and the main exporting regions with clear competitive advantages, as well as geopolitically priority regions due to budgetary investments, provided a positive investment dynamics. Such investment growth can hardly be considered sustainable.

Housing commissioning, labor market, income

The most problematic area remains housing construction, housing commissioning in January - July 2017 decreased by 10.4%. The decline continued in 54 regions, the most severe - in Chechnya (9 times), Adygea (2 times), Vologda and Tyumen regions (40%). This indicator also needs to take into account the base effect. The most significant volume of housing is introduced by the Moscow region (more than 10% of the total footage in the country), as well as the Krasnodar Territory, St. Petersburg, the Leningrad Region, Tataria and Bashkiria, the Rostov Region and Moscow. Among the leading regions, housing commissioning increased in half of them - St. Petersburg (8%), Tatarstan (5%), Leningrad (4%) and Rostov (2%) regions. In Moscow, in the first half of the year, housing commissioning decreased by 27%, while it also fell in 2016 (by 14%). This is one of the reasons for the implementation of the renovation program by the authorities of the capital, with the help of which they are trying to support the capital's construction complex.

Unemployment

The unemployment rate according to the ILO methodology remains extremely low during all the crisis years, and in summer it decreases seasonally (5.1% in May - July 2017). Regional differences are large and stable: the republics of the North Caucasus and southern Siberia (12-27%) and the depressed regions of Transbaikalia (9-11%) have the highest unemployment rates, and the largest federal cities (1.3-1.7%) have the lowest rates. ...

The problems of regional labor markets reflect the dynamics of underemployment. In the second quarter of 2017, the share of those who worked part-time decreased to 2.8% of the average headcount of employed people compared to 3.1% in the first quarter of 2017, the decrease took place in most regions. The problem of underemployment remains more acute in the Republic of Crimea (7.0%), the city of Sevastopol (5.1%), the republics of Chuvashia and Altai (4.7-4.8%). This is a consequence of the paucity of new jobs and the problematic state of some industrial enterprises.

Population income

The decline in real incomes of the population stopped only in May - June 2017, the dynamics in general for the first half of the year remains negative (-1.1%), the decline persisted in 65 regions. For the population, the crisis is not over yet. However, Russians are tired of saving; turnover has been growing since Q2 2017 retail, including due to the growth of consumer lending. In general, in January - July 2017, retail trade almost stabilized (-0.2%), although the decline continued in 48 regions of Russia.

Ivan Shilov © IA REGNUM

Budgets and debts

Another positive trend is the improvement of the state of the regional budgets. In the first half of 2017, the revenues of the consolidated budgets of the regions increased by 9% compared to the same period in 2016. The fastest growing were income taxes on profits and property (by 12%), personal income tax revenues increased by 8%, transfers increased by 9 %, since they began to be emitted more evenly throughout the year. But the regional picture is not uniform. Moscow accounts for every fifth ruble of regional budget revenues, the capital's budget revenues grew by 17%, and income tax revenues - by 26%, this is the most important source of income.

In 15 regions, budget revenues declined, most of all in the oil and gas producing regions of the Sakhalin Region (-29%) and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (-21%) due to a sharp decrease in income tax revenues, as well as in the republics of Kabardino-Balkaria and Yakutia (- 11-17%), Leningrad, Novgorod regions and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (-9-10%).

Budget expenditures grew more slowly (by 6%), while the range of regional differences is also large. The maximum increase in expenditures was recorded in the Kaliningrad region (by 52%) due to a threefold increase in transfers, the Republic of Crimea (28%), which received almost twice as many transfers, as well as the republics of Kalmykia and Karachavo-Cherkessia (20-23%), Moscow, St. Petersburg , Sevastopol and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (15-16%). In 25 regions, expenditures decreased, most of all - in the Sakhalin region, the republics of Udmurtia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Khakassia and Yakutia (by 6-8%).

The structure of regional budget expenditures for the first half of the year is not very indicative, since the main expenditures fall on the end of the year, but still, several trends can be distinguished, mainly due to the policy of the Moscow authorities.

First, the regions have noticeably increased spending on the economy (by 9% compared to the first half of 2016). In Moscow, the growth was even stronger (by 17%), the capital accounts for a quarter of regional budget expenditures under this item. The expenses of the St. Petersburg budget on the economy grew even faster - by 19%, but their volume is four times less than in Moscow.

Secondly, the expenditures of the regional budgets for housing and communal services increased significantly (14%), and again at the expense of Moscow (an increase of 30%) - the capital accounts for a third of the expenses of all regions. Housing and communal services also include Moscow spending on landscaping (the program "My Street", etc.) - they grew by 37%. If we take the expenditures of all regions for the improvement, then Moscow accounts for 65%. Other regions simply do not have money for such programs.

Thirdly, after the crisis optimization of previous years, the expenditures of the regional budgets for human capital in the first half of 2017 they grew more steadily: education - by 5%, culture - by 11%. The dynamics of health care spending is distorted by statistical changes (in most regions insurance payments for the non-working population were moved from the article "health care" to the article " social politics»), Formally they have decreased.

Fourth, spending on social protection of the population in the first half of 2017 increased by only 2% (excluding the transfer of insurance payments for the non-working population to this item). Dynamics social payments(benefits to the population) is zero, and in almost half of the regions they have decreased.

(cc) Ken Teegardin

There are two explanations: either it was not required to increase the loyalty of the electorate with the help of social payments (in the first half of 2017 there were no federal and regional elections), or the regional authorities really began to reform the ineffective system social protection population, mainly for fiscal purposes.

Budgets have become more balanced, the number of regions with a budget deficit decreased from 50 in the first half of 2016 to 36 in the same period of 2017, but among them there are acutely problematic ones: the budget deficit in the republics of Mordovia and Kabardino-Balkaria reached 23-24% of revenues, in Magadan region, Jewish Autonomous Region, Sevastopol - 15%, in Khakassia and Yakutia - 10-12%. Their authorities failed to cope with the task of optimizing expenditures, and in Yakutia this is explained by a strong decline in budget revenues. The total surplus of regional budgets in the first half of the year was half provided by the huge surplus of the Moscow budget (210 billion rubles out of 437 billion rubles). It may disappear after the implementation of the renovation program.

Another positive trend is a 7% reduction in the debt of regions and municipalities from January to August 2017.The highest debt remained in the republics of Mordovia (173% of their own budget revenues) and Khakassia (129%). In the structure of debt, the share of super-cheap budget loans increased (44%), which made it possible to reduce regional budget expenditures on debt service, but in Ivanovo, Astrakhan, Kostroma, Nizhny Novgorod, Saratov, Magadan regions, the republics of Mordovia, Udmurtia and Khakassia, it remains high (5− 6% of all budget expenditures).

The company's experts summed up the results I half of 2017 in the mortgage market. The main achievement over this period can be considered the fact that due to the decrease in interest rates on loans, pessimistic forecasts for the volume of loans without state support are no longer taken into account. Banks are breaking records for the past three years.

V the first two months of the year, the mortgage market "rocked", a decrease in the volume of issuance relative to the first months of 2016the year was 15%, analysts say. But already in March, the growth rate accelerated so much that it significantly exceeded the indicators 2015-2016 years, and is now comparable to the data of 2014, a successful year for the mortgage, the record volumes of issuance of which have not yet been beaten. Let's compare the results of the first half of 2017 with the same periods in 2016 and 2014. The results of 2015 are not included in the analysis due to the fact that they are much lower.

Issuance data mortgage loans in RF

As of July 1, 2017, in Russia as a whole, the number of loans issued amounted to 426,032 units, which is 7.95% higher than the number of loans issued during the same period of 2016 with the help of state support and 9.6% lower than in 2014. ... At the same time, the volume of issuance reached the level of 775,325 million rubles, which is 15.9% higher than last year for the same period and only 1.8% fell short of issuance in 2014 in monetary terms. That is, based on the results of the half-year, it can be said that the mortgage in 2017 is developing more actively than in the year of subsidizing the rate. There is every reason to believe that by the end of this year, the mortgage market is likely to exceed the records of 2014, experts say.

At the same time, in the Moscow region in I half of the year, the mortgage also demonstrates positive dynamics in comparison with the previous year: a total of 21,713 were registered and flow contracts, which is higher than last year's value by 16.6% and is the maximum value since 2013. Of the past six months maximum amount mortgage transactions were recorded in June - 4,951, in previous years in this period such high performance did not have.

According to the Central Bank, the weighted average rate on the mortgage market (primary and secondary markets) continues to decline: at the current time it is 11.5%, which is 1.24 percentage points less. by the first half of 2016 and by 0.72 p.p. to the same period in 2014. In contrast, the average loan size is growing: now it is 1,820,000 rubles, which is 5% more than in I half of last year and 12.4% more than in 2014.

Since 2014, there has been a tendency towards an increase in the average loan term: if before 2016 it was most often 15 years (180 months), then as of July 1, 2017 it is 15.5 years (185.7 months), having increased by 5 ,7 months. It should be noted that the loan term this year is almost a year longer than in the first six months of 2014. Despite this, general banking statistics show that mortgage on average it is extinguished in 5-7 years. That is, by lowering rates and increasing the lending period, borrowers arrange loans for large sums, while continuing to actively repay ahead of schedule, as in previous years.

Thus, we can confidently say that 2017 will establish new level record figures. This is favored by the following factors:the key rate is at the level of 9%, inflation is decreasing (now it is at 4.2%, the planned value for the year – 4%). The country has adapted to the anti-Russian sanctions, business is being rebuilt, there is a stabilization in the economy, as a result of which the demand for real estate and its lending has revived.

“Currently, there are quite a few offers from banks on the market., in which rates are offered below 9% (that is, the level key rate) - NSthen the so-called "trial balloons" from creditors,– tells Maria Litinetskaya, Managing Partner of Metrium Group.– Following the government's call for lending at 6-8%, banks are competing, if not for the actual 7%, then at least for marketing value, launching joint programs with developers by providing a discount from the seller. "

In the total mass of mortgage lenders, the average mortgage rates are as follows: 10.9% in the primary market and 11.5% in the secondary market. Leading mortgage banks - 10.2% for the purchase of a new building (minimum - 9.5% for the AHML program and 10% in Sberbank and Gazprombank) and 10.9% - for finished apartments (minimum values ​​are offered by Interprogressbank - from 9.75%, Gazprobank and Rosselkhozbank - 10%), which is a kind of record for minimum rates in rubles. Previously, we saw the 8-10% level only in special programs, for example, Sberbank has "8-8-8", the criteria of which were met by a very small number of borrowers.

On the background favorable conditions lending to new housing nthe growth of concluded contracts continues equity participation: in the Moscow region in I half of the year, 23,862 contracts were registered, which is 66% more than in the same period in 2016. The secondary housing market is also constant in its downward trend: in I In the first half of this year, 54,661 transactions on the transfer of rights were concluded, which is 12.87% lower than last year.

According to experts, at the moment the difference in the cost per square meter between the primary and secondary market as minimal as ever. As a result, other things being equal, buyers give preference to housing under construction. On the other hand, there is a clear increase in demand for properties within old Moscow and in the districts of New Moscow.

According to "Metrium Group", distribution of mortgage transactions by segments in the primary market in I half of 2017 happened as follows. In the Moscow region, in the apartments of the mass segment, the share of mortgages was 47.35%, in the business-class segment, mortgages are present in 35% of transactions, and in some premium-class properties the share of mortgages in the analyzed period was more than 38.5%. The average share of mortgage transactions in the analyzed period in the Moscow market of new buildings was 45.25%. On the one hand, this indicates the high dependence of developers on mortgages. On the other hand, it confirms that the mortgage is developing without help state support, being one of the drivers of economic growth.

By expert opinion, The low share of long-term (over 90 days) overdue debt in the amount of 2.6% speaks of the good quality of the mortgage portfolios of lenders and stimulates them to launch more risky products. So, already 8 mortgage banks issue mortgages without a down payment.General statistics on mortgages over the years suggests that what me has invested a loan earlier uk own funds in buying an apartment, the more likely it is that he will stop paying the loan in case of an emergency. And vice versa - the larger the size of your funds, the more reliable the borrower.However, such an offer is offset by more high rate from 12.95% so as not to attract a large number of wishing "free cheese".

“The mortgage market is now on the rise: creating new and developing previously existing, but little-used tools for working with clients,” sums up Maria Litinetskaya... - Already now, creditors are actively luring bona fide clients from each other, offering them more low rate when refinancing. At the same time, there remains the possibility that their mortgage clients may also go to another bank. Thus, we are witnessing an intensifying competition between lenders not only for new issues, but also for existing borrowers. At the same time, for the client, it is not only the size that comes to the fore in choosing a lender mortgage rates, but also the level of its service, ease of interaction and an individual approach. Therefore, in II a further decrease in rates and the emergence of new additional options in mortgages for clients - both from giant banks and from more maneuverable middle peasants - is expected in the first half of the year.

RIA Rating - 17 Aug According to the Ministry economic development RF according to the results of the first half of 2017 GDP growth amounted to 1.7%. Positive dynamics was noted in industrial production, in agriculture, in the construction industry. However, the retail turnover continued to decline, real cash income population.

The all-Russian result consisted of the results of the development of individual regions, the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators of which was heterogeneous. In order to assess regional trends in economic development, the experts of the Rating Agency "RIA Rating" conducted an analysis of the socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the first half of 2017, the results of which are presented in the analytical bulletin "Socio-economic situation of the regions of the Russian Federation - Results of January-June 2017".

The number of regions with positive dynamics of industrial production in the first half of the year increased significantly

In the first half of 2017, industrial production in the Russian Federation increased by 2.0%. Moreover, positive dynamics was recorded in each of the six months, except for February. The overall dynamics of industrial production was positively impacted by growth in mining (+ 3.1%), in manufacturing (+ 1.2%) and in the supply of electricity, gas and steam; air conditioning (+ 2.5%). The fall was observed only in the sphere of “water supply; water disposal, organization of waste collection and disposal, activities to eliminate pollution ”(-2.0%).

At the regional level, industrial production has grown in most constituent entities of the Russian Federation. At the end of the 1st half of 2017, industrial growth was noted in 70 regions. Compared to the same period last year, a significant positive trend is noticeable - the number of such regions increased by 16.

The leader in terms of industrial production growth in the 1st half of 2017 was the Altai Republic (+ 47.8%). In the republic, growth was recorded in all four types of activity, and the most significant increase in production was in the provision of electricity, gas and steam; air conditioning (+ 60.0%). The dynamics of industrial production in the region has the character of a stable trend. Monthly growth has been recorded in the region since February 2016, that is, for 17 months in a row.

The Republic of Dagestan is in second place in terms of industrial production growth rates. In January-June 2017, industrial production here increased by 40.3%. The most significant growth was noted in the processing sector (+ 50.6%). In the Republic, the production of finished metal products has significantly increased, except for machinery and equipment (JSC Dagdizel), the production of other Vehicle and equipment (JSC "Concern KEMZ"). Monthly positive dynamics of industrial production has been recorded in the region since August 2016.

The third position in terms of industrial production growth is occupied by the Jewish Autonomous Region (+ 39.6%). Here the growth was due to a significant increase in the extraction of minerals (+ 732.7%). The main contribution to the industrial growth of the Autonomous Region was made by mining enterprises. Monthly growth has been observed in the republic since November 2016.

The fall in industrial production in the 1st half of 2017, according to Rosstat, is noted only in 14 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. In one region - in Chechen Republic industrial production remained at the same level. The most significant decline took place in the Republic of Buryatia. Industrial production in the region fell by 26.4%. Production in the Republic decreased in all four areas economic activity... The most significant drop was in manufacturing (-32.7%). Here, a decline in production was observed in the production of other vehicles and equipment, in the production of clothing, furniture. In Chukotka autonomous region industrial production decreased by 7.8%, in the Komi Republic - by 7.7%, in the Udmurt Republic - by 7.1%. In other regions, the drop in industrial production in January-June 2017 did not exceed 5%.

By the type of activity "Manufacturing", according to the results of the first half of 2017, a positive trend was recorded. The industrial production index for this sector was 101.2%. The Republic of Dagestan became the leader in terms of production growth in this type of activity by a wide margin. In the republic, growth in the first half of 2017 amounted to 50.6%. In the Murmansk region, the Arkhangelsk region and in the Yaroslavl region, production in the manufacturing sector increased by more than 20%. In particular, in the Murmansk region, the production of vehicles and equipment has significantly increased, which is associated with the completion of the stage of ship repair work with a long cycle in the factory. Metallurgical production also showed significant growth in the region. In total, in 67 regions, production in the processing sector has grown. Compared to the first half of 2016, the number of such regions increased by 17.

The Republic of Crimea, the Chechen Republic and the Vologda Region became the leaders in terms of growth rates in construction work in the first half of 2017.

Volume construction works in the first half of 2017 slightly increased. The increase was only 0.2%. However, compared to the same period of the previous year, significant positive changes are noticeable - in the first half of 2016, the volume of construction work decreased by 6.8%.

Among the regions of the Russian Federation, the leaders in terms of growth rates in construction work in the first half of 2017 were the Republic of Crimea, the Chechen Republic and the Vologda region. In these regions, the volume of construction work has more than doubled. In total, the positive dynamics of the construction industry was recorded in 36 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. In six regions, during each month of the first half of 2017, the volume of construction work was higher than in the same month of 2016. These are Kaluga Region, Vologda Region, Kurgan Region, Kemerovo Region, Primorsky Territory and the Jewish Autonomous Region.

Retail turnover increased in 36 regions

In the first half of 2017, the decline continued in the retail sector, however, the rate of decline has noticeably slowed down. The retail trade turnover in Russia as a whole in the first half of 2017 decreased by 0.5%, while in the same period of 2016 the decline was at the level of 4.9%.

Retail trade turnover grew in 36 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, and in three of them growth was observed in each of the six months of the first half of 2017 - this is Chuvash Republic, Omsk region and Khabarovsk region... The most significant (by more than 10%) retail trade turnover increased in the city of Sevastopol and in the Omsk region. In 48 regions, retail turnover decreased, while in the Republic of Kalmykia it remained at the same level. For comparison, in the first half of 2016, retail trade turnover increased in 12 regions.

Real monetary incomes of the population in January-May 2017 increased only in 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation

At the end of January-May 2017, the real money income of the population decreased again, but the rate of decline also slowed down significantly. In general, in the Russian Federation, the indicator at the end of January-May 2017 decreased by 1.4%, and at the end of the same period in 2016, the decline was at the level of 4.9%.

According to Rosstat, real money incomes of the population in January-May 2017 increased only in 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Of these, the most significant growth was recorded in the Republic of Crimea (+ 6.1%). Of all the regions, only in one - in the Republic of Kalmykia, the real money income of the population grew every month of the five months of 2017. In the Orenburg region, real incomes of the population remained at the same level, and in 64 constituent entities of the Russian Federation there was a drop.

The decline in real money incomes occurred despite the growth in nominal wages. According to the results of January-May 2017, the nominal wage in the country as a whole grew by 7.2%. The increase took place in all constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The largest increase (over 10%) is noted in the Magadan region and in the city of Sevastopol.

Fixed set cost consumer goods and services on average in January-May 2017 in Russia increased by 6.2% and amounted to 14,500 rubles.

The ratio of the population's monetary income to the cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services in January-May 2017 across the Russian Federation was 1.97, which is lower than in the same period of the previous year (2.04). Compared to January-May 2016, the increase in the ratio of cash income and the cost of a set of consumer goods and services occurred only in 11 regions, and in 74 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, this indicator decreased.

The Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Sakhalin Region became the leaders in terms of the ratio of cash income to the cost of a fixed set of goods and services. In total, 16 regions have an indicator above 2.00. Compared to the same period last year, their number has decreased by nine.

On the contrary, the number of regions with relatively low income levels has increased. In January-May 2017, cash income exceeded the cost of a set of consumer goods and services by less than 1.5 times in 18 regions of the Russian Federation, which is 6 regions more than in January-May 2016.

Unemployment has decreased in most regions

In the second quarter of 2017, the unemployment rate in the Russian Federation decreased. In April-June 2017, it was 5.2%, while for the same period in 2016 the figure was 5.7%.

The decrease in the unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2017 occurred in 66 regions, in 5 regions the indicator did not change, and in 14 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the unemployment rate increased. The most significant unemployment fell in the Republic of Ingushetia - by 3.6 percentage points to 27.3%. In nine other regions, unemployment fell by 2 or more percentage points.

The most significant unemployment increased in the second quarter of 2017 in the Republic of Mari El - by 1.8 percentage points. In the Republic of North Ossetia - Alania, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Republic of Dagestan, the unemployment rate increased by 1.5 percentage points or more.

The highest unemployment rate is in the Republic of Ingushetia, the Republic of Tyva, the Chechen Republic and the Karachay-Cherkess Republic, where the rate exceeds 13%.

In the first half of 2017, four key macroeconomic indicators increased in 7 constituent entities of the Russian Federation

The analysis carried out by RIA Rating experts made it possible to identify groups of regions with negative and positive dynamics in terms of the main indicators at the end of the 1st half of 2017. The index of industrial production, the increase in the volume of work performed by the type of activity "Construction", the increase in retail trade turnover and the dynamics of real money incomes were taken into account.

All of the above indicators showed positive dynamics in seven regions: in the Pskov region, the Republic of Dagestan, the Republic of Ingushetia, the Republic of Mordovia, the Tyumen region, the Republic of Tyva and in the Primorsky Territory.

A drop in key socio-economic indicators occurred in five constituent entities of the Russian Federation - Smolensk Oblast, the Komi Republic, Leningrad region, Volgograd region and the Republic of Buryatia.

The number of regions with a budget deficit in the first half of the year decreased

According to the data of the Federal Treasury, in January-May 2017, the volume of revenues of the consolidated budgets of all regions of the Russian Federation increased by 9.4% (+368.1 billion rubles) compared to the same period last year. Consolidated budget revenues increased in 68 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The leaders are the Republic of Crimea (+ 91.8%), the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (+ 83.6%) and the Kaliningrad Region (+ 77.1%). Reduction of budget revenues occurred in seventeen regions. The largest drop is noted in the Sakhalin Oblast (31.6%), the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (-23.2%) and also in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug - Yugra (-22.6%).

Tax and non-tax revenues of the consolidated budgets of all regions of the Russian Federation increased by 9.3% (+313.7 billion rubles). This, in the main, ensured the growth of the aggregate revenues of the consolidated budgets. Tax and non-tax revenues increased in 66 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The leader in the growth of tax and non-tax revenues is the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (+ 81.8%), where greatest contribution the increase was contributed by income from the sale of material and intangible assets(+3.1 billion rubles). Tax and non-tax revenues also increased significantly in the Republic of Crimea (+ 70.3%). This was mainly due to the growth in corporate income tax (+10.6 billion rubles).

Decreased tax and non-tax revenues in nineteen constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The sharpest drop was noted in the Sakhalin Oblast (31.5%), where the volume of corporate income tax revenues decreased significantly (-39.8 billion rubles). Also, a significant drop occurred in the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (-26.1%), in which tax receipts on goods sold in the Russian Federation decreased significantly (-1.7 billion rubles).

At the end of January-May 2017, the total surplus of the consolidated budgets of all regions of the Russian Federation amounted to 619.3 billion rubles, which is 43.9% more than in January-May 2016. Consolidated budgets were executed with a deficit in only 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Compared to the same period last year, the number of such regions decreased by 15. 65 constituent entities of the Russian Federation consolidated budgets were executed with a surplus.

The results of the first half of the year showed that Russian economy entered the phase of restorative development. The experts of the RIA Rating agency suggest that this trend should continue in the future.

Accordingly, one can expect positive changes in the economy of individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation. In particular, some improvement of the situation is possible in regions where the automotive and pharmaceutical industries are developed. These areas are currently focused on import substitution and demonstrate high production dynamics.

RIA Rating is universal rating agency media groups MIA "Russia Today" specializing in assessing the socio-economic situation of the regions of the Russian Federation, economic condition companies, banks, industries, countries. The main activities of the agency are: creating ratings of regions of the Russian Federation, banks, enterprises, municipalities, insurance companies, valuable papers, other economic objects; complex economic research in the financial, corporate and public sectors.

The first half of 2017 did not bring significant changes to the real estate market - the ruble prices for secondary apartments in Moscow in January-June continued to slowly creep down. At the same time, the fall in prices would have been deeper, if not, announced by the Moscow authorities at the end of February.

According to the analytical center, the cost per square meter in Moscow for six months sank in rubles by 1.1%: from 169,500 in December 2016 to 167,600 rubles. in June 2017. The dollar price index for the same period increased from $ 2,700 to $ 2,950 per square meter, that is, by 9.3%. However, the growth of the indicator in hard currency was associated exclusively with the strengthening of the ruble and did not reflect the real processes taking place in the real estate market.

It is noteworthy that the bulk of housing is Soviet and modern panel houses, as well as stalinka and typical brick houses - have fallen in price more than the average market. The "extreme" segments - five-story buildings and modern monolithic-brick houses - felt better than the market.

A similar picture emerges when considering the dynamics of prices for rooms. "Odnushki", of which there are many in five-storey buildings, - at the market level, multi-room apartments - they are almost not found anywhere, except for expensive monolithic brick houses and prestigious stalinkas - have pulled ahead. At the same time, "kopeck pieces" and "treshki", which form the bulk of the supply, fell in price the fastest.

The five-story buildings most likely owe their success to the city's renovation program. , but stimulated the interest of potential buyers in apartments in such houses. First of all, brick ones - they are more comfortable than panel ones and for the most part are located in good areas near the metro.

The relative price stability of monolithic-brick houses is most likely associated with some improvement economic situation in the country and the strengthening of the ruble in the first half of the year. There are many investment apartments, whose owners traditionally play bullish during periods of economic stabilization.

The hopes of the owners of Khrushchev that the plans of the Moscow government would help them sell their property at a higher price were reflected in the dynamics of prices in geography. The market leaders turned out to be democratic districts, where there are many five-story buildings, while outsiders are expensive ones, where there are few of them or none at all.

The Institute for Natural Monopoly Problems (IPEM) published the monitoring of the state of the industry for the first half of 2017. According to IPEM estimates, the semi-annual demand index entered positive values ​​for the first time since 2011. Coal exports make a significant contribution to the indicators, which for the period January-June 2017 increased by 13.8% compared to the same period last year. Also, the decline in demand in high-tech industries has practically stopped, the start of recovery growth is possible in the coming months.

At the end of the first half of 2017, the IPEM production index increased by 1.8% compared to the same indicator in 2016, the IPEM demand index - by 3.4%. The last time higher values ​​of the growth rate of the demand index were observed in 2011: then in January-June the indicator increased by 3.9%. In June 2017, compared to June 2016, the demand index increased by 4.2%, while the production index decreased by 0.5% (see the background information on the methodology for calculating IPEM indices).

There is a significant increase in demand for Russian coal: the volume of exports in June 2017 to June 2016 increased by 11.5% to 15.9 million tons, in January-June - by 13.8% to 90.4 million tons. The growth of Russian coal exports is facilitated by the policy pursued by the Chinese leadership to reduce excess and inefficient production capacities and to solve environmental problems, which affects the volumes of its own production. In addition, the demand from the Chinese metallurgical enterprises is growing.

Total shipment of coal on the network railways at the end of June 2017, it increased by 9.6%, and export shipments - by 19.4%. Thus, carried out renovation work on the railway infrastructure, as well as the modernization of the BAM and Transsib do not create restrictions for the transportation of coal.

The decline in the demand index in high-tech industries has practically stopped (-0.4% versus June 2016, -6.1% in January-June 2017). The start of recovery growth is possible in the coming months, provided that the current positive dynamics in the consumer segment of high-tech industries continues, primarily in the automotive industry, which demonstrates double-digit growth rates. At the same time, the indicators of demand in the investment segment continue to decline.

“On a half-yearly basis, the growth of business activity in the economy is noticeable, but the extractive industries continue to remain the main driver, which indicates a certain opportunistic nature of growth,” said Evgeny Rudakov, Deputy Head of the Fuel and Energy Complex Research Department at IPEM.

The full version of the monitoring of the state of the industry based on the IPEM indices is available here.